[thomassmith65]

The Iranian diaspora around the world is celebrating. Here's the scene in Berlin:

https://youtu.be/NSbx_0mtk80?si=MJ_Bfvx8gVd1P1mm

They've waited a very long time for this moment!

[kubb]

I have no doubt that they didn't like that the regime, which is why they left.

But this assassination is no guarantee of change for the better. Far from it.

[pinkmuffinere]

It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years

[faramarz]

It's less a revolution and more a matter of catching the tide of shifting world powers — and seizing a rare shot at building something other than the last failed experiment. New Iran, new experiment. You bet Iranians are euphoric right now. Some of the country's brightest intellectuals and political minds are sitting in Evin prison, and if all goes well, they're about to walk out and help shape what comes next. My dad is worried about the power vacuum, and he's right to be. His biggest concern is the border states and the narrative that ISIS is being funneled into the country to destroy any chance of organized transition. I desperately hope he's wrong. And I don't think he'll ever fully heal — few who lived through the first revolution will.

[ndiddy]

Yeah I'm not sure why people think that the Iranian government never considered any sort of continuity for what happens when their 86 year old ruler dies. It's not like they're ants that are all helpless without their sole supreme leader.

[oytis]

It's not a given - e.g. AFAIK most turks in Germany support Erdogan

[thomassmith65]

They're not brain-damaged. They know that!

[regnull]

It’s a good start

[timtim51251]

That why they are going beyond that and going after the IRGC

[SanjayMehta]

It depends on how well the regime brainwashed its people over the last 50 years. The majority of Iranians haven't any experience of anything else - I think around 55% are under 40 years old.

There's a US born professor Marandi who said in an interview a few weeks ago that the regime had put in place succession plans, including for himself.

I'm hopeful but skeptical that they will change for the better.

[anovikov]

Well, in any case, it is a guarantee that Iran will be less of a danger for other nations if the regime falls, and that people inside of the country will suffer - because either pro-Western or any other government is bound to be a lot weaker, and there will be a lot more violence and economic disruption, eventually economic degradation. It should avenge the emigrants, and provide sufficient punishment for those in Iran for enabling this regime in the first place.

Let's not have illusions about it. There is no way to build a sustainable democracy in a country that never had such leanings and is not culturally/religiously predisposed to it, and can't be physically coerced into it with boots on the ground. Achievable goals are punishment, and neutering.

[Haven880]

Another Ayatollah is being ushered in. This is no news. Khameni is old and without the missile, he would be dead soon. This sttike is just bonus to galvanize support for Ayatollah. So in a way Trump prolong the regime. And consequence from this: every other middle east countries now starting their nuke program. Good luck.

[tejohnso]

There would likely be millions of Americans celebrating the murder of their current president, should that happen. It doesn't mean it's reasonable, right, just, or civilized, nor would it indicate that it was a unanimously supported action.

[TulliusCicero]

But in the case of an actual dictator who murdered thousands of protestors it is reasonable, right, just, and civilized.

Shed no tears for the deaths of tyrants. They would happily see you and any other threat to their illegitimate power put six feet under.

[avoutos]

Well, there are other things you can look at. For one, Khamenei was dictator of a regime that abducts women and recently murdered 10s of thousands of protesters in the streets. I'd reckon most, including Iranians, would not judge the killing of such an individual immoral, unjust or uncivilized.

[throwawayheui57]

They threw the justice and civility when they murdered people on the street. That ship has sailed and the party who's responsible for this escalation is the government.

[bambax]

Not just Americans.

[jatari]

The entire continent of europe would be celebrating.

[cameldrv]

Perhaps, but there would be tens/hundreds of millions of people like me who didn't vote for Trump and don't like him, but would be absolutely enraged beyond perhaps anything in this country's history if another country blew up the White House and he was killed.

[worldsavior]

There aren't millions. Maybe thousands which are completely insane considering Trump didn't kill any US citizen, unlike Haminayi killing 50k of his own people.

[thisislife2]

Exactly. This is just western media trying to project some morality to what was an internationally illegal act ... (and perhaps some in the media hoping against hope this publicity would please the dear, glorious leaders of Israel and the US to end the war).

[penguin_booze]

Do enjoy the moment while it lasts. Because the next ruler will be an American stooge. This isn't going anywhere, like the other "revolutions" in the middle east.

[sph]

Henry Kissinger is looking up and smiling.

[lucasRW]

This has nothing comparable with "other revolutions" in the middle east, it's quite the opposite in fact: a non-islamist population held under the tyranny of islamist leaders.

[jojobas]

So what, you'd take living under an American stooge's rule over a religious fanatic's any day.

[TacticalCoder]

> Because the next ruler will be an American stooge.

And if that's the case, do you think that American stooge shall do worse than Khamenei who ordered his islamist guards to slaughter 30 000+ unarmed iranian protesters in a matter of days?

What can be worse than religious extremist sending their fanatics into hospitals to finish the wounded?

I'm in the EU and I see cars with iranian flags honking. Someone posted a video or iranians celebrating: not bearded men and veiled women (which is a sign of religious extremism: there are many muslims that do not have the islamist beard and many muslim women who aren't veiled) but regular people, celebrating.

I don't doubt that many bearded men and veiled women are very sad today.

But I side with the free iranians in exile who are celebrating what may be the end of four decades of sharia law ruling their country.

[anovikov]

What's wrong about it? This is the goal - like in Syria: neuter the country by bringing in a pro-American government that will ensure country will stay weak and irrelevant, in exchange for letting it terrorise locals as they please.

[UltraSane]

At least a sane stooge.

[tim333]

People celebrating inside Iran too https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2027840034150178952

[thomassmith65]

That's very moving! I can't say many international developments have filled me with optimism the past couple years. I want so badly for this to pan out for Iranians.

[sph]

All I see is cameras panning around buildings, no humans in sight, and audio of cheering people. Not saying it's fake, but in the age of AI faking such a video is child's play.

Too low signal-to-noise ratio for me to acknowledge any of this. We'll see how it will pan out for the Iranian people in due time.

[jhoechtl]

The dispora means little though, the people in the country count as they live 365 days there without the convenient ability to comment from a distance and they are ones who would have to die for a turnover.

[y-curious]

You mean the ones who cannot comment because their authoritarian theocratic regime blocked protest and the internet? I hope that changes for them

[kjfarm]

I think this is a good point, there is evidence (even with strict censorship controls in place) that people inside the country are celebrating https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-kha...

[lucasRW]

There are similar scenes in all Iranian cities. Literally the first morning video we could see Saturday morning before the internet shutdown, were ladies on their balcony jumping of joy that they had struck Khamenei's neighbourhood.

[acjohnson55]

If I were in their shoes, I would be celebrating, too. But this is complicated. If they and their loved ones are already outside the country, they are not directly imperiled by the power vacuum. So the upside is maybe their homeland becomes hospitable again, but the downside is basically that it remains inhospitable.

I'm not saying that the diaspora doesn't care about the risks or have empathy for those that remain in Iran. I'm sure there are also many people who are deeply concerned. Just that being an emigre changes things.

[avazhi]

Aside from a few members of the IRGC, everybody who has been paying attention for the past 40 years is celebrating.

Taking out both Maduro and Khomeini over the course of a few months without a single American or Israeli casualty is peak.

[alchemism]

Murdering heads of state and their families is cool as Judge, Jury, and Executioner if no soldiers are hurt in the process, is that where we are now?

[pjc50]

There were allegedly 7 US personnel injured during the Maduro raid.

Decapitation airstrikes have been possible for decades. I suppose now we find out whether that was a good idea or not. Slightly surprised the Iran strike worked, if you remember the hunts for Saddam and Bin Laden.

[baxtr]

Not only outside the country, but also inside the country! Many many videos on social media showing how they celebrate.

[tdeck]

It's interesting that they're all flying the flag of the Shah.

[sph]

The son of a Shah that was deposed by mass protests by well-educated students and intellectuals during the Islamic Revolution, who are now in their 60s.

Time is a circle.

[throwawayheui57]

Oh you should see the videos coming out of Iran from people celebrating.

I also just saw state tv threatening people once more. They're so scared.

[nicbou]

I can hear them from my window. They're really happy. Lots of honking, revving engines and shouting near Zoo.

[Rapzid]

Hopefully from this the conditions will materialize where they could, if so inclined, help build Iran up in the future..

[wiseowise]

They're all paid actors! CIA agents! Orange revolution!

[aucisson_masque]

Expatriates behaviors are often misleading and don't represent the general feeling inside the country.

I'm not saying that Iranian loved Khamenei, but maybe they are not that happy that he is dead because of other reasons. Instability for instance.

[_3u10]

Not really, expats help shape the narrative and bring external help to make their views the reality.

[paxys]

Easy to celebrate from a few thousand miles away.

I'm not saying the Ayatollah wasn't a vile criminal, but it's always innocents on the ground who face the brunt of war.

I hope the citizens of Iran can have a peaceful transition and chart a better path for their country, but every single one of America's previous forced regime changes in the region (and across the world) has shown otherwise.

[consumer451]

Also please see: https://old.reddit.com/r/newiran

Remember Kian.

[aaa_aaa]

Are they cheering killing of dozens of school children as well?

[thomassmith65]

No, obviously.

Actually, they will probably assume the IRGC killed them to blame the West. I don't believe that, but the Iranians can't stand the regime.

[pinkmuffinere]

Nobody is happy about killing civilians. But Khamenei did more than that every day he was alive. Personally I feel there is some amount of immediate civilian casualty that is worth putting a stop to continuous suffering.

[paganel]

What moment would that be? Begging for the Americans to bomb their former country?

[thomassmith65]

Yes.

10 million Iranians live outside Iran. They want a normal country again.

Later today, I'm sure footage from LA, Toronto, London, Stockholm will be up.

[Almondsetat]

At some point you have to decide: if my country is held back by a brutal dictatorial regime where civilians can't hope to topple it, is there anything else to do other than get external help?

[slim]

berlin is spooktown. everything you see is staged

[jmyeet]

People should never treat the diaspora as representative of any population other than the diaspora.

This issue comes up with Cuba a lot. A lot of Cuban-Americans hate Castro. Why? Because they were the upper-middle class to wealthy under Batista.

This history becomes almost comically distorted. Senator Ted Cruz said that he hates communists because his father was tortured by... Batista [1].

So let me give you an example of the Iranian/Persian diaspora. In 2024 in particular we had a lot of protests against Israel's genocide in Gaza and American support for it. Many were on college campuses. One was on UCLA.

In April 2024, masked counterprotesters attacked the protesters and the police stood idly by and let it happen. The police later then used this violence as a reason to crack down on the protesters. So who were these counter-protesters? Persian diaspora [2].

Anyone celebrating this knows nothing about history and honestly nothing about Iran.

First, Khamenei isn't a singular autocrat like Basheer al-Asaad or Saddam Hussein. No decapitation strike is going to result in regime change. Did you notice the Iranian response change after Khamenei's death? No. Because there isn't one. The religious governmental institutions still exist. A temporary successor was appointed. The IRGC continues as is. Iran is a functioning state that will continue without its Supreme Leader.

Second, let's just say that the Iranian government does fall apart. That's going to be incredibly bad for Iranians as you'll either get a fail-state like Libya, Syria or Somalia (which is what Israel wants) or you'll simply get an American puppet.

Do you know who the American puppet in Syria is? Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly an al-Qaeda leader. Do you think that's going to end well? Saddam Hussein was an American puppet. Until he wasn't. The former Shah. Augusto Pinochet. That's who you get when the US installs a puppet regime.

Maybe you think Iran will get a functioning democracy. They had one until the US overthrew it in 1953.

Do you really think the US cares about Iranians? Like at all? What exactly is being celebrated here?

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/I2AdbLDVb0Q

[2]: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/us/ucla-student-protests-coun...

[inglor_cz]

"That's going to be incredibly bad for Iranians as you'll either get a fail-state like Libya, Syria or Somalia (which is what Israel wants) or you'll simply get an American puppet."

Iran is one of the oldest continuing political units in the world, clocking over 2500 years as an organized state.

I think you seriously underestimate the capabilities and know-how of the Iranians by expecting them to behave the same way as pre-state tribal polities like Somalia.

[Taek]

Account is 17 days old.

We have probably entered an era of the Internet where new account signups need some sort of validation. An invite from a user with >500 karma? $10? Strong KYC? Or perhaps one of multiple such methods to be more inclusive?

We all know there's propaganda accounts on this site (and all over the internet). Is this one of them? I have no idea! But the fact that I have no idea makes it harder to enjoy HN and be confident in the things I am reading.

The time for changing user signup flows is probably nearby.

[thomassmith65]

You're welcome. I found the link on Youtube. It looked legitimate to me.

Wikipedia:

  "Unit 8200 is probably the foremost technical intelligence agency in the world and stands on a par with the NSA in everything except scale."

No, I'm not a part of 'Unit 8200', though I'm flattered to be mistaken for one.