[kubb]

I have no doubt that they didn't like that the regime, which is why they left.

But this assassination is no guarantee of change for the better. Far from it.

[pinkmuffinere]

It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years

[orthogonal_cube]

Removal of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control.

I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.

[throwaway2037]

Without doxxing yourself, why were you unable to visit? I have known Persian expats a few times in my life, and they were always able to visit without issue.

[kubb]

I would defer the celebration until you can.

[cnd78A]

A friend of mine, EU member, hasn't been able to visit USA because he was cricizing us gov (under BIdden), still not allowed. Ban and censorship isn't specific to Iran, many western nations love it too.

[empath75]

The most likely situation is continuity. They just pick a new supreme leader. The second most likely situation is a civil war.

[acjohnson55]

I hope that it works out for you and your family.

[faramarz]

It's less a revolution and more a matter of catching the tide of shifting world powers — and seizing a rare shot at building something other than the last failed experiment. New Iran, new experiment. You bet Iranians are euphoric right now. Some of the country's brightest intellectuals and political minds are sitting in Evin prison, and if all goes well, they're about to walk out and help shape what comes next. My dad is worried about the power vacuum, and he's right to be. His biggest concern is the border states and the narrative that ISIS is being funneled into the country to destroy any chance of organized transition. I desperately hope he's wrong. And I don't think he'll ever fully heal — few who lived through the first revolution will.

[overfeed]

> It's less a revolution and more a matter of catching the tide of shifting world powers — and seizing a rare shot at building something other than the last failed experiment

The Arab spring wasn't that long ago, was it? We all saw how that turned out, but I suppose hope springs eternal.

> You bet Iranians are euphoric right now

I'm guessing the 50+ dead elementary school kids may put a damper on celebrations a bit.

[jacquesm]

The last thing they should do is to import the Shah's exiled family member and make him their figurehead again. Both him and the mullahs are bad news.

[ndiddy]

Yeah I'm not sure why people think that the Iranian government never considered any sort of continuity for what happens when their 86 year old ruler dies. It's not like they're ants that are all helpless without their sole supreme leader.

[manarth]

It's reported that Ayatollah Khamenei nominated multiple successors for his role and a number of other military roles, to guard against this policy.

    "Last summer during the 12-day war with Israel, Khamenei had named three potential successors should he be killed. Reports earlier this month indicated that Khamenei had named four layers of succession for key government and military jobs, in an effort to ensure regime survival in the face of a US-Israeli attack."

- https://www.timesofisrael.com/khamenei-said-to-pick-three-po...

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/28/strategic-opti...

[breppp]

it's quite common that autocratic states have periods of instability due to wars of succession. That's why many devolve into Monarchy like the Kim or Assad dynasties. That's why one of the possible successors was Khamenai's son

[dismalaf]

The fact a leader can be assassinated at any moment by the US probably changes the succession plan slightly... I imagine any potential successor is thinking hard about whether it's a job they actually want.

[oytis]

It's not a given - e.g. AFAIK most turks in Germany support Erdogan

[ahartmetz]

In both countries, the educated population likes the religious leader less than the uneducated population. In Germany, most Turkish immigrants are from rather basic backgrounds and most Iranian immigrants are from intellectual backgrounds. It makes a huge difference. In both countries of origin, the population is split much more evenly than what you see abroad. AFAIK, about 50% support the religious strongman in both countries.

[bonzini]

A lot of the Persian diaspora is actually descendents of people who left in the 80s. There are certainly people who left 20 years ago or less but they're mostly secular as well.

[thomassmith65]

They're not brain-damaged. They know that!

[regnull]

It’s a good start

[timtim51251]

That why they are going beyond that and going after the IRGC

[SanjayMehta]

It depends on how well the regime brainwashed its people over the last 50 years. The majority of Iranians haven't any experience of anything else - I think around 55% are under 40 years old.

There's a US born professor Marandi who said in an interview a few weeks ago that the regime had put in place succession plans, including for himself.

I'm hopeful but skeptical that they will change for the better.

[anovikov]

Well, in any case, it is a guarantee that Iran will be less of a danger for other nations if the regime falls, and that people inside of the country will suffer - because either pro-Western or any other government is bound to be a lot weaker, and there will be a lot more violence and economic disruption, eventually economic degradation. It should avenge the emigrants, and provide sufficient punishment for those in Iran for enabling this regime in the first place.

Let's not have illusions about it. There is no way to build a sustainable democracy in a country that never had such leanings and is not culturally/religiously predisposed to it, and can't be physically coerced into it with boots on the ground. Achievable goals are punishment, and neutering.

[Haven880]

Another Ayatollah is being ushered in. This is no news. Khameni is old and without the missile, he would be dead soon. This sttike is just bonus to galvanize support for Ayatollah. So in a way Trump prolong the regime. And consequence from this: every other middle east countries now starting their nuke program. Good luck.