[pinkmuffinere]

It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years

[orthogonal_cube]

Removal of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control.

I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.

[lamontcg]

Has there been a regime which has collapsed due to an external strike like this where it hasn't resulted in some decades long civil war nightmare?

I can't think of any time when bombing the shit out of a country and killing their leader has actually worked.

All I can think of is examples of blowback.

[general_reveal]

Naval blockade and the military capacity to simply siege you from afar. Tactically , why America didn’t do more of that is … well who knows. I mean, what if we literally parked our carrier group off of Iraq and sieged them until

A) Put in a government we like

B) Population behave or quality of life will be bad, you see, the simple life is difficult with cruise missiles coming at you

If that’s as effective as sending 250k ground troops (which … actually wasn’t effective), one could make the observation that Trump is a military genius.

Someone please talk sense to me because I cannot believe what I am saying.

[jacquesm]

And/or neighboring countries see their chance to start another front in the war.

[christkv]

It's likely the regime will be denied use of heavy weaponry by the US and Israel. This means any actual popular revolt in some sense could be supported by massive air power.

[tim333]

Trump seems to have thought it through a bit. Recent post:

>...This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country. We are hearing that many of their IRGC, Military, and other Security and Police Forces, no longer want to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us. As I said last night, “Now they can have Immunity, later they only get Death!” Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves...

The merge peacefully or die thing may motivate them.

[throwaway2037]

Without doxxing yourself, why were you unable to visit? I have known Persian expats a few times in my life, and they were always able to visit without issue.

[kj4211cash]

If they have said anything against the regime on social media, they would be wise not to visit. I personally know many Persian expats who meet family in Turkey and have been anxious about going back.

[phreeza]

Not OP but most common reason I've heard is military age males with unresolved mandatory military service status.

[pinkmuffinere]

Honestly I’m not sure I should say, sorry. Recent years have been worse than normal though, with lots of human rights violations, protests, protestors being tortured/killed, foreign nationals being held in prison/killed, etc.

[cnd78A]

A friend of mine, EU member, hasn't been able to visit USA because he was cricizing us gov (under BIdden), still not allowed. Ban and censorship isn't specific to Iran, many western nations love it too.

[throwawayheui57]

There’s a difference between the ban where they don’t give you visa vs. censorship where they disappear you if you publicize your dissent. One must not conflate.

[kubb]

I would defer the celebration until you can.

[acjohnson55]

I hope that it works out for you and your family.

[swat535]

As another Iranian living the West, I wish he would have been captured alive and stood trial.

He should have answered for every single drop of blood on his hands.

My 21 year old cousin was captured during the Mahsa uprising, she was sent to Evin prison, tortured for months. After she was released, we brought her to Canada and she was hospitalized for over a year. She will never be able to live a normal life again.

Death was too merciful for Khamenei.

[empath75]

The most likely situation is continuity. They just pick a new supreme leader. The second most likely situation is a civil war.

[mda]

Unlikely, large proportion of population is brainwashed for 40 years. They will elect a "moderate" supreme leader, then business as usual.

[reliabilityguy]

There is also a possibility of a Venezuela-style cooperation.

[MichaelRo]

In Romania it took some 10 years to reach some degree of functional democracy after the fall of communism and the execution on Ceaușescu, who coincidentally, just returned from the crowning of Khamenei, while learning, dictator-to-dictator, how to suppress a revolution: 1006 killed, though most of them not by the initial "Revolutionary Guards" reprisal but in the semi-civil war that followed.

And that in a country/region without Islamic radicals trying to take over. So far, apart from Israel, no Middle East country has managed to function as a democracy. Turkey, the only Muslim majority who has the faintest chance of joining the European Union, only keeps stuff under control due to the army enforcing a secular state, which the liberal patsies in the West can't take, because authoritarianism is bad and diversity in accepting radical Islam creeping into our homeland is our strength.