[andrewflnr]

Even if Trump doesn't care, Israel is very motivated to make regime change happen. They want to be permanently rid of Iran's nuclear threat, its funding of terrorist groups, all of it. Honestly I think Trump or at least his administration is on a similar page, and if not the Israelis can clearly be pretty persuasive.

No, my worry is whether it will be a regime change that benefits the Iranian people or some kind of sick puppet state. But of course:

> Trump will declare it as a victory regardless of what happens

...This goes without saying.

Edit: worth noting the Arab states tend to hate Iran as well, and Iran has already sprinkled some ballistic missiles on them just in this war. They're not going to speak up for Iran unless they think the escalation is getting too dangerous for themselves.

[guerrilla]

> Even if Trump doesn't care, Israel is very motivated to make regime change happen.

It doesn't matter. There are zero cases in history of successful regime change by air only. Iran, of all countries, has an extremely robust succession plan and at a last resort the IRGC itself will take over.

> Iran has already sprinkled some ballistic missiles on them just in this war

I can see you're not following this too seriously.

You didn't give objective criteria for how to judge whether you're right or wrong yet.

[andrewflnr]

You should follow more seriously which usernames you're talking to. But as far as objective criteria, if a regime change happens I don't expect it to be subtle or debatable. Seeing the IRGC disbanded would be a pretty solid signal, though.

Obviously it's not going to be done 100% from the air. The Iranian people will have to play a big role. I just hope they manage to seize initiative from Trump and Netanyahu as far as how their government is run.

I do note that we've strayed a bit from the thesis of "Iran is so powerful Israel and the US have to gang up on it". :D