[andy12_]

The model could report the confidence of its output distribution, but it isn't necessarily calibrated (that is, even if it tells you that it's 70% confident, it doesn't mean that it is right 70% of the time). Famously, pre-trained base models are calibrated, but they stop being calibrated when they are post-trained to be instruction-following chatbots [1].

Edit: There is also some other work that points out that chat models might not be calibrated at the token-level, but might be calibrated at the concept-level [2]. Which means that if you sample many answers, and group them by semantic similarity, that is also calibrated. The problem is that generating many answer and grouping them is more costly.

[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774 Figure 8

[2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.04869 Figure 1.

[geokon]

In absolute terms sure, but the token stream's confidence changes as it's coming out right? Consumer LLMs typically have a lot window dressing. My sense is this encourages the model to stay on-topic and it's mostly "high confidence" fluff. As it's spewing text/tokens back at you maybe when it starts hallucinating you'd expect a sudden dip in the confidence?

You could color code the output token so you can see some abrupt changes

It seems kind of obvious, so I'm guessing people have tried this

[throwthrowuknow]

Look up “dataloom”. People have been playing with this idea for a while. It doesn’t really help with spotting errors because they aren’t due to a single token (unless the answer is exactly one token) and often you need to reason across low probability tokens to eventually reach the right answer.