[ghm2199]

Economics of producing goods(software code) would dictate that the world would settle to a new price per net new "unit" of code and the production pipeline(some wierd unrecognizable LLM/Human combination) to go with it. The price can go to near zero since software pipeline could be just AI and engineers would be bought in as needed(right now AI is introduced as needed and humans still build a bulk of the system). This would actually mean software engineering does not exist as u know it today, it would become a lot more like a vocation with a narrower defied training/skill needed than now. It would be more like how a plumber operates: he comes and fixes things once in a while a needed. He actually does not understand fluid dynamics and structural engineering. the building runs on auto 99% of the time.

Put it another way: Do you think people will demand masses of _new_ code just because it becomes cheap? I don't think so. It's just not clear what this would mean even 1-3 years from now for software engineering.

This round of LLM driven optimizations is really and purely about building a monopoly on _labor replacement_ (anthropic and openai's code and cowork tools) until there is clear evidence to the contrary: A Jevon's paradoxian massive demand explosion. I don't see that happening for software. If it were true — maybe it will still take a few quarters longer — SaaS companies stocks would go through the roof(i mean they are already tooling up as we speak, SAP is not gonna jus sit on its ass and wait for a garage shop to eat their lunch).