"[2] Copyright owners tend to focus on the aspect they see of piracy, which is the lost revenue. They therefore think what drives users to do it is the desire to get something for free. But iTunes shows that people will pay for stuff online, if you make it easy. A significant component of piracy is simply that it offers a better user experience."
Man, is this ever true. I like to watch tennis a lot - which, being a niche sport, is often not on TV. The memphis finals were televised in some places, but not others. There was a web stream, but dig this - it was not available in the US because of broadcasting rights. And it was limited to PCs (not Mac's)!
So I'm thinking about anti-piracy efforts, including a lot of moralizing about how piracy is the equivalent of stealing (which, in some cases, it may well be). A network bought coverage, declined to air it in my area, but also banned a web feed that I would have gladly paid for, but with DRM that prevents it from working on my Mac.
But I shouldn't watch a rogue feed, because Piracy would be, you know, wrong. I should just be a passive viewer and decide to enjoy what the network decided I should be watching that day.
Keep in mind, I'm more than willing to pay. I'm trying to pay.
Their assumption, and it's true for most people, is that you're going to watch something. If they don't put tennis on, you'll watch whatever they do show, even if it's arena wrestling. So even by watching something niche that they wouldn't broadcast anyway, you're stealing.
Everyone is afraid of getting hosed by not anticipating future rights. Everyone knows how actors lost out by agreeing to a much smaller percentage of DVD revenue than for films (because they underestimated the market and profit margins), and everyone is determined to not let that happen to them.
This kind of fear propagates faster than actual realistic fears because you sound wise by talking about the future. So lawyers can always "add value" by cautioning against some deal that might be disadvantageous in 20 years.
This is many years premature. It may come to pass, but is nowhere near that now. TV is still by far the most common way of watching television shows (and watching television shows is still the most common way of wasting time) and overall viewership is increasing every year. This trend doesn't seem to be changing for a few reasons.
1) TV screens are much bigger and cheaper. They don't need the resolution a monitor does. Watching on a small screen is something you're happy to be able to do on a plane, but would never want to do on a day to day basis.
2) Bandwidth is still not there, especially for HDTV, and progress seems to be stalled. I still have pretty much the same connection for the same price that I did 5 years ago, and I'll likely still have it in 5 years from now. Mark Cuban talks about this a lot. Fiber to the premises may solve this one soon for some subset of the country, but by no means everyone.
3) Live television is nearly non-existent online. It can't handle it. The bandwidth to stream the Superbowl to everyone who wants it doesn't exist. Sports are a huge part of the TV viewing audience.
4) Many people like to watch shows as soon as they're released. The internet is terrible for this. I personally download mine, but I do so knowing that I'm always going to be watching the Daily Show from 2 days ago. If I were a TV addict (i.e. normal American) that would be unacceptable.
5) Content quality is better than ever. Single camera sitcoms, pay channel dramas, reality tv (if you're into that). Almost everyone agrees this is a golden era of television.
If you really think that more people are watching TV on a computer than on a good old-fashioned TV, you need to come down from your Silicon Valley mountain for a while.
I wish I could post the graph of unique visitors that the founders of Justin.TV sent me. But while their actual numbers are presumably secret, I will say that I have never seen a steeper graph of a one-year period from any YC-funded startup. And I have seen some steep graphs now.
You're generally right on #2 and #3. Even the biggest IP transit networks in the world only have capacity on the order of a few terabits per second (or a few million simultaneous video streams).
However, "bandwidth" isn't really what matters. It's the last mile connection to end users. Big CDN's like Akamai have this figured out and can pump millions of simultaneous live streams directly into end user networks without congesting any internet backbones.
It turns out that the main reasons we aren't all watching TV online right now is that big TV networks 1) are afraid of cannibalizing their existing revenue streams, and 2) think it costs a lot money. Neither of these are strictly misconceptions, but they aren't nearly as true as they were even a year ago.
Justin.tv has developed technology and infrastructure that brings the cost of distributing live video below the cost of serving static video, so I guess that makes it all about the revenue streams. It should be interesting to see what happens to this space in the next couple of years.
I guess the majority of people still find it tough to hook their computer up to their TV screen. I can't see what the problem is myself. Surely soon most people will be able to do this soon.
Your example of the Daily Show doesn't really hold up. If you use torrents, a lot of shows are up before they even broadcast on the west coast. If you use Hulu, the Daily Show is available the next morning.
Broadcast bandwidth is currently being wasted big time by the broadcasters. It is actually worth more as a backfill conduit to feed desktop caches than to broadcast TV repeatedly.
TV lost? While I agree with many of the points PG brings up, I feel something is missing.
According to Nielson, TV viewership is at an all time high (http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/tag/total-us-television-...). Also, Oscars had a 13% increase from last year with 36.3M viewers. 50+M viewers watched Obama's inauguration on TV.. not on their computers. And of course, we know that those teenagers who are using social apps still cast more votes for their favorite american idol contestant than the sum of adults cast for president. (btw, if anyone knows where to get an annual histogram of viewership in US, that is what I was really looking for). TV viewership may indeed plummet in the future, but as of right now its at an all time high.
Then, I can't help but notice that I still procure my internet from my cable provider. And that same cable provider is not only actively fighting against network neutrality, but they are also blocking my ability to download anything from Torrent. They are far from beaten.
Lastly, what is the real difference between watching shows on my TV verse Computer. They are both using digital pipes, they both have microprocessors, memory and HDs - one has a bigger screen than the other (usually). The only real difference, and increasingly so, is that one is proprietary, and one is open. TV has not lost.. their content is (unfortunately) as relevant and abundant to the average American as ever.
All TV has lost is utter dominance - much like MS windows lost its utter dominance with the adoption of Linux and the rise of OSX (but they are still #1 by a lot). However, whether its piped through a monitor or an HD flatscreen, the US consumer will continue to glue their eyeballs to the content we call TV today for some time before open content can even begin to realize the same advertising dollars as the proprietary networks do.
All TV has lost is utter dominance - much like MS windows lost its utter dominance with the adoption of Linux and the rise of OSX (but they are still #1 by a lot).
Both TV and Microsoft lost. They just aren't quite dead yet - it takes time for giants to fall.
I think PG refers to the way that the bleeding edge is now adopting. It is now that these folks determine how most people will watch "TV" in 10-20 years. It doesn't really matter how TV tries to keep its wheel rolling until then, they'll stay rolling anyway thanks to sheer momentum. Also, watching stuff on internet is only beginning the change at this time. It's often even more inconvenient than tv if it's only tv that you're watching. But this will change in time as the "internet power users" is slowly growing into a majority.
Although, it might not take more than a few years when you stream or download tv shows to your cellphone over broadband wifi, then simply plug your phone into a dumb HD television screen terminal and start watching whatever you have on your phone.
Exactly TV "lost" in the same way Microsoft is "dead". Hyperbole used for emphasis and style. The discussions are about trends that have passed a tipping point (or arguably seem to be about to) and can now be called (even in advance) so new thought can be encouraged.
Interestingly, another thing TV has done to adapt is create content that expires very quickly. Reality shows like American Idol and Big Brother are unlikely to end up downloaded, because they're not worth watching if you don't watch them right away.
This is probably a huge component in why there are so many more reality shows these days.
Breaking the broadcast model also won't work for those, because their value is precisely in the fact that a lot of people watch them, so that they become gossip points. I know some people who watch reality shows only because they know that's what will be discussed around the water fountain the next day, and so they want to be sure to be "in".
I agree that that's a pretty small niche to fit all of today's TV industry, though.
Actually, I wanted to refute your argument with a data point.
American Idol is the most DVR'd show in history. Even tho part of the "process" is to watch and TXT your vote (for a fee), it turns out many people are passively watching the show. They DVR it, watch it, and wait it out till next week.
Essentially, this is the first evidence of internet lurking crossing over to Reality TV contests.
But otherwise, you're completely right. TV is watercooler talk.
I am not sure, maybe a lot of TV viewers actually are very passive. What always gets me about TV is the constant overexcited talking, which acts like brainwashing. TV shows (series) are another matter, but I think there might be a market for the constant babbeling brainwash. The primary function of TV is to switch off the brain. The internet can't really replace it, because choosing which shows to watch would be work.
Also lately I had this thought that maybe it is not even so bad. Consider a person who watches TV shows for all their lives. Chances are their lives will be much more exciting than the average person's live, if they really live with the TV show characters. They'll experience every conceivable and inconceivable human condition there is. Not that I recommend it myself, but still...
Agreed; much of the appeal of TV seems to be that it removes all need to make any decisions. I have two younger sisters in their mid teens, and although they both have facebook and MSN etc, I'd say that for every hour they spend on the internet, they'll spend 3 hours watching TV.
For the most part, though, it won't be anything specific -- they'll just sit there and watch literally whatever's on, including even the really awful daytime game shows and the like. They're not very bright, but neither are they especially stupid -- they're both at grammar schools (~top 20%). Neither are they poor, friendless or isolated -- they just enjoy the utter mindlessness of watching whatever is put in front of them. To have to choose what to watch would ruin the experience.
1. The content, which, as others here have stated, is here to stay for quite some time. And this is what the networks (NBC/Fox/etc.) do best so I think they're going to be around much longer than the RIAA. It's very inexpensive to record quality music using home equipment (hence RIAA is screwed), but home videos are still far from the quality of network produced shows. There is a downward trend in cost to produce TV shows and movies, but it isn't quite as cheap and easy yet.
2. The big screen in the living room. This too is here to stay, though it will evolve from just a medium to watch TV shows and movies to something that'll be more interactive+connected+social.
I think a large part of the problem is that the content is increasingly crap!
My TV watching is basically Food Network, Ovation TV (artist & musician documentaries) some History channel, a bit of Discovery channel (Mythbusters & Dirty Jobs), Cartoon Network adult swim and movies. I haven't watched broadcast TV in almost a decade and I don't get the local satellite feed. My local news comes from the radio during my commute.
Fox, ABC, NBC, etc. simply don't exist for me. CNN I have watched exactly ONCE in the last year: I heard that a plane landed in the Hudson river and I rushed home to watch it on TV then got disgusted by the usual crappy CNN coverage and switched it off.
A local bar could have an open mike night streamed online and I would watch that (with the bar's name prominently displayed in the background) over just about anything on TV. And when I got tired of watching I could go to the bar :-)
My brother writes for TV. There is quite an age difference between us; he's older. The industry still does not fully comprehend the Internet as it relates to its future. The other day we were having dinner and my brother said he wishes he could just cut the middlemen (the producers/networks) out of the equation and become a distributor on the Internet himself. He's tired of being creatively limited by their vision -- or lack-there-of.
He was surprised when I said that it was well within his ability to do this already. Not in a "woohoo I put up my own website with my own shows" kind of way, but in a "I have become my own virtual CDN via EC2 et al" kind of way. He argued that would simply make Amazon and the infrastructure providers into the new middlemen. Perhaps, though that might be like saying that my computer use is being held hostage by the electrical company. In theory it is, but in practice it does not feel like the very exploitive sort of middle management that exists in the entertainment industry.
I've done some work for this industry and the key point you have to understand is that, whereas "Can we accomplish this?" is a matter of technological feasibility to us hackers, it means something entirely different to entertainment industry folks. To them, it is more of a legal matter. The whole industry is mired in a complex web of contracts governing every detailed aspect of intellectual property. So, when we scoff at how long it took the networks to get something like Hulu up on the Internet, understand it was a bunch of lawyers holding up the process. Then, when you get around some of the service's limitations (e.g., geoblocking) understand that too, was a dumb legal requirement. Everyone involved knows these restrictions are circumventable but, they must be in place for the existing contracts not to have to be re-negotiated.
Talk to anyone that's worked on the iTunes infrastructure. From what I gather, at least initially, getting an album onto the iTMS involved dozens of contracts. It made getting an iPhone application onto the App Store a cakewalk in comparison.
Where a startup could provide tremendous value, it would be in overcoming the legal hurdles to distributing content on the Internet. Spend the money on the lawyers to setup all the contracts that you need, so you can get unsigned artists onto your content distribution network, but more-or-less play by the rules of the current industry. These people are afraid of change, so you don't want to come out of left field in the way you operate. Then, when you become the new boss of the industry, tear down the stupid legal constraints that stifle creativity and innovation, and makes the Internet pretend to be something it is not.
The networks are vulnerable. Writers, actors, and other workers hate working for them because they take huge cuts of revenue and then play accounting games to take an even larger portion. There's a reason the unions there are so strong. They're united in their hatred of the middlemen. On the other side of the coin, us consumers hate the networks too. Most of us are tired of their antics.
So, any startup willing to take on this challenge would have a friendly set of content suppliers, and a captive audience. Just get yourself the best lawyers you can probably find, because you will need them ;)
You can make a TV show and distribute it to everyone easily. That's not the problem. The problem is getting together the budget to make a good TV show, then making the ad revenue off of that show you need to make that profitable.
I started a startup oriented around a new way of listening to your music and sharing new stuff with friends. We found one of the best lawyers in the industry, and he pretty much said "Don't do it. You're too young, and there are better things to spend your time on."
Why not build one (a startup) around iTunes' video podcast library?
Allow podcasters to opt-in to a web interface to video podcasts–integrate mid/pre-roll ads and split the revenue with the content providers. Allow viewers to set their favorite channels and be notified when new episodes are available.
For the "friendly set of content providers", help them create a workflow that gets the content to you as easily as possible.
What are the best lawyers required if you're working directly with the content creators? (assuming they don't already have existing contracts)
It would be cool if a video camera manufacturer integrated their device with a web back-end. Automatically compress and upload videos, and tag them from your camera. Basically reduce the friction required to publish and organize your content. It would be killer to integrate this with something like Facebook groups...
This is pretty close to reality in the form of the Eye-Fi: www.eye.fi. The sd card automatically uploads pictures/video over wifi to your computer and/or certain social networking sites.
Does this open up room for content-providers in other silos to expand into the TV space? For example, magazines. Wired tried to start a science series on PBS a couple years ago and it flopped. Could it work as an online-only thing?
I think it's dangerous to declare this contest over. Clearly, the large interests on the losing side of this battle aren't willing to go down without a fight.
Between net-neutrality, restrictive piracy laws and all sorts of anti-consumer tools we are far from seeing the notion of TV as it currently exists being effectively replaced.
I don't think you can lump all TV together.
I think a more accurate title would be "Why TV Lost in the US"
And one of the reasons would undoubtedly be the awful quality of most US programming.
Bravo,
This is such a good article. As a filmmaker myself, (foureyedmonsters.com) what I'm very interested in is partnering with exhibitors with a universal license that makes managing re-distribution very simple. I would love to put a more advanced creative commons license on a film that would then allow TV brodcasters and other digital exhibitors to put ads on it, sell it, project it at events or even distribute for free but always sending 50 percent of gross revenue back to my piece of contents royalty collecting agent. I imagine a world with lots of very small production companies all using these up and coming standardized licenses and then a social web that just passes that content where ever it needs to go translating and even re-editing as it moves through the swarm.
I've co-founded a research and development project to function as a think tank designing this future model.
For content creators there is a big focus around compensating the creation of culture. If society considers culture to be a valuable thing, then that culture will earn it's value back. In other words, we won't see inflated monetary compensation to content creators, but there will be compensation that supports them making more. That is if anyone cares about the things they make. And that's I suppose why we call this democracy.
There is little flaw in the essay - it has forgotten about humans and human nature e.g. I am very young I go out to play - on rainy days and when my friends are away I watch kids TV (available pretty much all day)...Time moves on...I am a young care-free teen and I have face-book, computers, etc. and rip-off music and video and watch TV on the Internet, I have social networking and on-line games and have XBox and PS3 and Wii all over the place....Then reality dawns slowly but surely...I am a young adult and I have to get a job because Dad lost all his money in the recession and he wont give me endless bundles of cash anymore or cover my bills...I use the WWW to find one...If I am lucky (having studied and not "googled off" at school) I get one and I have to work hard BUT I suddenly have MY OWN money and I enjoy that and I go out, join the tennis club, local gym, go to bars and clubs...Lo and behold I find a soulmate and after much vexing (or not) we move in together..I work; she works, we get home and we cook and boy are we tired and we cannot be bothered to fire up the computer and go to Face-book, Google, Find, Search, Look, Hunt on the WWW (anyhow did that in the office)... What a long day its been; We sit down in the living room and switch on the TV and RELAX...
TV is premised on such long sessions (unlike Google, which prides itself on sending users on their way quickly) that anything that takes up their time is competing with it.
We've received a steady stream of feedback regarding Stormpulse.com from people who are abandoning TV coverage of hurricanes (yes, even that of The Weather Channel) in favor of our site. We're also happy to be the owners of Stormpulse.tv.
A decade ago, I would've bought satellite TV, heck even 5 years ago. Since the original Xbox was hacked and broadband became commonplace, I have watched less and less TV. I watch anything I want to on my AppleTV. Youtube, iTunes and Boxee are an incredibly disruptive combination. Our TV has an FTA digital tuner built in, which died two months ago. We haven't replaced it, we just watch TV even less. When the switchover happens we probably won't bother at all.
For me, Boxee is the most disruptive offering I've seen and it's precisely a combination of the social and Internet-based elements that makes me try to convince everyone I know to use it. I don't see Boxee killing TV, but like XBMC before it, it's one hell of a disruptive concept.
I also agree that some sort of set top box combining telephony, TV, Radio and Internet will displace regular TV. Cable and telephony companies have already been moving towards this with 'triple play' offerings.
I on the other hand have had this kind of integration since 2003 with MythTV.
"Hacker News" is showing its entrepreneurial, money-focused side in this discussion. You have to be obsessed with business models to be convinced that television is "losing" to the internet, just like you had to be obsessed with business models to believe that the internet was "killing music" a few years ago. Everybody still watches television and uses it as a cultural reference point when relating to other people. Despite the flourishing variety of internet-native art forms, people still turn to television for a regular fix of programming. The appetite for television programming is just another entry on the long list of things that the internet, which "changes everything," isn't actually changing.
You can pass hours of time on YouTube, but the content, while passably stimulating, just doesn't bear repeating. You can't crack your friends up by making some sly reference to it a month from now. Unless, that is, you're watching something that is well-written, well-produced, and well-acted. And in that case, you'll probably call it "television" to distinguish it from random thirty-second clips of some guy farting at his cat (America's Funniest Home Videos notwithstanding.)
When music moved from live venues to vinyl, it was still called music. When it moved from vinyl to cassettes to CDs, it was still called music. Now it's on the internet, and it's called... music! Television programming has been called "television" or "TV" for over half a century. I bet people will still call it "television." We think about it as "television versus the computer," but the younger generation thinks, "Why is it so hard to find television on the internet? I want to watch TV on my computer, not on the TV." That isn't contradictory at all. That's just the way the words are used. If you pick the right meaning of "TV," then TV might die, but it isn't interesting unless you stand to make or lose money on it. The TV that most people care about has a long life ahead of it.
I especially liked pg's statement "But it was connecting to other people that got everyone else: that's what made even grandmas and 14 year old girls want computers."
The power of point-to-point cannot be overestimated. Indeed it had great impact in getting people to sign up for Internet access and connect a computer to the Internet in the first place. I discovered online interaction in 1992, when I attended a conference about homeschooling in Washington state and saw a demonstration of the Prodigy online service there. I made sure to connect a modem to my computer (remember dial-up?) and soon entered into interesting conversations with people all over the country about a common topic of interest. None of the content I was reading was produced by professionals--it was all parents talking to other parents. My online interaction completely displaced TV from my life, and soon greatly reduced the number of postal letters I sent to friends, because I could reach most of my best friends online anyway.
Sometime a while later in the 1990s, I saw an analysis in an industry magazine about whether the main application of the Internet would be broadcasting of professionally produced content or point-to-point communication. That analysis pointed out that at that time the revenues of the Baby Bell companies were MANY times greater than the revenues of all the movie and TV production companies. Point-to-point is where the revenue streams are. Broadcasting doesn't draw in as much money, because it doesn't appeal to as many audience members in as many ways.
My use of television now consists just about entirely of watching the local TV news and one network news program broadcast to my home with my children. We don't watch any dramas, and only occasionally watch Saturday Night Live's opening segment. (We don't subscribe to cable and live in an area with an unwatchable digital signal, so we resort to just one analog broadcast signal at the moment.) TV is expendable in our house. Internet-connected computer use is indispensable.
Can someone explain that line to me? I don't see facebook mentioned anywhere else.
I generally consider myself pretty on top of ways to watch TV on my computer (I've been doing the RSS bit torrent thing pretty much since it's been possible), but I have never seen any common thread between facebook and tv. "Internet killed TV" I can agree with.
The connection is that the internet really took off when people realised you could use it to connect with each other in new and interesting ways.
YouTube, Facebook, Myspace etc are among the most visited sites and are all about connecting with each other.
Among the younger crowd, people spend more time online than they do infront of their TV.
So, While Facebook itself didn't kill TV, the assertion that social activities online killed TV is becoming increasingly true, especially as more content producers start distributing their stuff online.
Paul just put it in a broad manner (although not 100% accurate, but close enough).
I mean, I'm not a big YouTube fan: I normally get linked there to metalworking/machining videos but once there I stay for a long time. YouTube is really sticky. This kind of stuff is candy for me and linked with well targeted ads, the provider can make money. I know that if I'm watching some guy in a basement show how he built a CNC lathe, I wouldn't mind even really obvious product placement or a short 10-15 second commercial about machining before the video starts.
There are many, many talented people out there who could be making their own videos and profiting from it. Is the problem just lack of sponsorship or a good advertising model?
There has to be business opportunity here. Maybe a site that video artists can go to with samples of their work looking to be matched with suitable sponsors.
[+] [-] geebee|17 years ago|reply
Man, is this ever true. I like to watch tennis a lot - which, being a niche sport, is often not on TV. The memphis finals were televised in some places, but not others. There was a web stream, but dig this - it was not available in the US because of broadcasting rights. And it was limited to PCs (not Mac's)!
So I'm thinking about anti-piracy efforts, including a lot of moralizing about how piracy is the equivalent of stealing (which, in some cases, it may well be). A network bought coverage, declined to air it in my area, but also banned a web feed that I would have gladly paid for, but with DRM that prevents it from working on my Mac.
But I shouldn't watch a rogue feed, because Piracy would be, you know, wrong. I should just be a passive viewer and decide to enjoy what the network decided I should be watching that day.
Keep in mind, I'm more than willing to pay. I'm trying to pay.
[+] [-] tlb|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tlb|17 years ago|reply
This kind of fear propagates faster than actual realistic fears because you sound wise by talking about the future. So lawyers can always "add value" by cautioning against some deal that might be disadvantageous in 20 years.
[+] [-] apu|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] senthil_rajasek|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mattmaroon|17 years ago|reply
1) TV screens are much bigger and cheaper. They don't need the resolution a monitor does. Watching on a small screen is something you're happy to be able to do on a plane, but would never want to do on a day to day basis.
2) Bandwidth is still not there, especially for HDTV, and progress seems to be stalled. I still have pretty much the same connection for the same price that I did 5 years ago, and I'll likely still have it in 5 years from now. Mark Cuban talks about this a lot. Fiber to the premises may solve this one soon for some subset of the country, but by no means everyone.
3) Live television is nearly non-existent online. It can't handle it. The bandwidth to stream the Superbowl to everyone who wants it doesn't exist. Sports are a huge part of the TV viewing audience.
4) Many people like to watch shows as soon as they're released. The internet is terrible for this. I personally download mine, but I do so knowing that I'm always going to be watching the Daily Show from 2 days ago. If I were a TV addict (i.e. normal American) that would be unacceptable.
5) Content quality is better than ever. Single camera sitcoms, pay channel dramas, reality tv (if you're into that). Almost everyone agrees this is a golden era of television.
If you really think that more people are watching TV on a computer than on a good old-fashioned TV, you need to come down from your Silicon Valley mountain for a while.
[+] [-] pg|17 years ago|reply
I wish I could post the graph of unique visitors that the founders of Justin.TV sent me. But while their actual numbers are presumably secret, I will say that I have never seen a steeper graph of a one-year period from any YC-funded startup. And I have seen some steep graphs now.
[+] [-] kvogt|17 years ago|reply
However, "bandwidth" isn't really what matters. It's the last mile connection to end users. Big CDN's like Akamai have this figured out and can pump millions of simultaneous live streams directly into end user networks without congesting any internet backbones.
It turns out that the main reasons we aren't all watching TV online right now is that big TV networks 1) are afraid of cannibalizing their existing revenue streams, and 2) think it costs a lot money. Neither of these are strictly misconceptions, but they aren't nearly as true as they were even a year ago.
Justin.tv has developed technology and infrastructure that brings the cost of distributing live video below the cost of serving static video, so I guess that makes it all about the revenue streams. It should be interesting to see what happens to this space in the next couple of years.
[+] [-] dejb|17 years ago|reply
I guess the majority of people still find it tough to hook their computer up to their TV screen. I can't see what the problem is myself. Surely soon most people will be able to do this soon.
[+] [-] EvilTrout|17 years ago|reply
Are you sure about some of the claims you're making?
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/2007...
^^^ This article seems to think viewership is down and I've heard that repeatedly over the last few years.
[+] [-] lasthemy1|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DomesticMouse|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] trezor|17 years ago|reply
Hopefully IPv6 and global multicast should solve this once we finally rid ourself of this ancient thing called IPv4.
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
[+] [-] jonmc12|17 years ago|reply
According to Nielson, TV viewership is at an all time high (http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/tag/total-us-television-...). Also, Oscars had a 13% increase from last year with 36.3M viewers. 50+M viewers watched Obama's inauguration on TV.. not on their computers. And of course, we know that those teenagers who are using social apps still cast more votes for their favorite american idol contestant than the sum of adults cast for president. (btw, if anyone knows where to get an annual histogram of viewership in US, that is what I was really looking for). TV viewership may indeed plummet in the future, but as of right now its at an all time high.
Then, I can't help but notice that I still procure my internet from my cable provider. And that same cable provider is not only actively fighting against network neutrality, but they are also blocking my ability to download anything from Torrent. They are far from beaten.
Lastly, what is the real difference between watching shows on my TV verse Computer. They are both using digital pipes, they both have microprocessors, memory and HDs - one has a bigger screen than the other (usually). The only real difference, and increasingly so, is that one is proprietary, and one is open. TV has not lost.. their content is (unfortunately) as relevant and abundant to the average American as ever.
All TV has lost is utter dominance - much like MS windows lost its utter dominance with the adoption of Linux and the rise of OSX (but they are still #1 by a lot). However, whether its piped through a monitor or an HD flatscreen, the US consumer will continue to glue their eyeballs to the content we call TV today for some time before open content can even begin to realize the same advertising dollars as the proprietary networks do.
[+] [-] abstractbill|17 years ago|reply
Both TV and Microsoft lost. They just aren't quite dead yet - it takes time for giants to fall.
[+] [-] yason|17 years ago|reply
Although, it might not take more than a few years when you stream or download tv shows to your cellphone over broadband wifi, then simply plug your phone into a dumb HD television screen terminal and start watching whatever you have on your phone.
[+] [-] r7000|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] swombat|17 years ago|reply
This is probably a huge component in why there are so many more reality shows these days.
Breaking the broadcast model also won't work for those, because their value is precisely in the fact that a lot of people watch them, so that they become gossip points. I know some people who watch reality shows only because they know that's what will be discussed around the water fountain the next day, and so they want to be sure to be "in".
I agree that that's a pretty small niche to fit all of today's TV industry, though.
[+] [-] redrobot5050|17 years ago|reply
American Idol is the most DVR'd show in history. Even tho part of the "process" is to watch and TXT your vote (for a fee), it turns out many people are passively watching the show. They DVR it, watch it, and wait it out till next week.
Essentially, this is the first evidence of internet lurking crossing over to Reality TV contests.
But otherwise, you're completely right. TV is watercooler talk.
[+] [-] Tichy|17 years ago|reply
Also lately I had this thought that maybe it is not even so bad. Consider a person who watches TV shows for all their lives. Chances are their lives will be much more exciting than the average person's live, if they really live with the TV show characters. They'll experience every conceivable and inconceivable human condition there is. Not that I recommend it myself, but still...
[+] [-] Macavity|17 years ago|reply
For the most part, though, it won't be anything specific -- they'll just sit there and watch literally whatever's on, including even the really awful daytime game shows and the like. They're not very bright, but neither are they especially stupid -- they're both at grammar schools (~top 20%). Neither are they poor, friendless or isolated -- they just enjoy the utter mindlessness of watching whatever is put in front of them. To have to choose what to watch would ruin the experience.
[+] [-] cpr|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Goladus|17 years ago|reply
'Switching off the Brain' is a somewhat pejorative way to say it. You don't call a massage 'switching off your back muscles.'
[+] [-] zhyder|17 years ago|reply
1. The content, which, as others here have stated, is here to stay for quite some time. And this is what the networks (NBC/Fox/etc.) do best so I think they're going to be around much longer than the RIAA. It's very inexpensive to record quality music using home equipment (hence RIAA is screwed), but home videos are still far from the quality of network produced shows. There is a downward trend in cost to produce TV shows and movies, but it isn't quite as cheap and easy yet.
2. The big screen in the living room. This too is here to stay, though it will evolve from just a medium to watch TV shows and movies to something that'll be more interactive+connected+social.
[+] [-] HeyLaughingBoy|17 years ago|reply
My TV watching is basically Food Network, Ovation TV (artist & musician documentaries) some History channel, a bit of Discovery channel (Mythbusters & Dirty Jobs), Cartoon Network adult swim and movies. I haven't watched broadcast TV in almost a decade and I don't get the local satellite feed. My local news comes from the radio during my commute.
Fox, ABC, NBC, etc. simply don't exist for me. CNN I have watched exactly ONCE in the last year: I heard that a plane landed in the Hudson river and I rushed home to watch it on TV then got disgusted by the usual crappy CNN coverage and switched it off.
A local bar could have an open mike night streamed online and I would watch that (with the bar's name prominently displayed in the background) over just about anything on TV. And when I got tired of watching I could go to the bar :-)
[+] [-] 9oliYQjP|17 years ago|reply
He was surprised when I said that it was well within his ability to do this already. Not in a "woohoo I put up my own website with my own shows" kind of way, but in a "I have become my own virtual CDN via EC2 et al" kind of way. He argued that would simply make Amazon and the infrastructure providers into the new middlemen. Perhaps, though that might be like saying that my computer use is being held hostage by the electrical company. In theory it is, but in practice it does not feel like the very exploitive sort of middle management that exists in the entertainment industry.
I've done some work for this industry and the key point you have to understand is that, whereas "Can we accomplish this?" is a matter of technological feasibility to us hackers, it means something entirely different to entertainment industry folks. To them, it is more of a legal matter. The whole industry is mired in a complex web of contracts governing every detailed aspect of intellectual property. So, when we scoff at how long it took the networks to get something like Hulu up on the Internet, understand it was a bunch of lawyers holding up the process. Then, when you get around some of the service's limitations (e.g., geoblocking) understand that too, was a dumb legal requirement. Everyone involved knows these restrictions are circumventable but, they must be in place for the existing contracts not to have to be re-negotiated.
Talk to anyone that's worked on the iTunes infrastructure. From what I gather, at least initially, getting an album onto the iTMS involved dozens of contracts. It made getting an iPhone application onto the App Store a cakewalk in comparison.
Where a startup could provide tremendous value, it would be in overcoming the legal hurdles to distributing content on the Internet. Spend the money on the lawyers to setup all the contracts that you need, so you can get unsigned artists onto your content distribution network, but more-or-less play by the rules of the current industry. These people are afraid of change, so you don't want to come out of left field in the way you operate. Then, when you become the new boss of the industry, tear down the stupid legal constraints that stifle creativity and innovation, and makes the Internet pretend to be something it is not.
The networks are vulnerable. Writers, actors, and other workers hate working for them because they take huge cuts of revenue and then play accounting games to take an even larger portion. There's a reason the unions there are so strong. They're united in their hatred of the middlemen. On the other side of the coin, us consumers hate the networks too. Most of us are tired of their antics.
So, any startup willing to take on this challenge would have a friendly set of content suppliers, and a captive audience. Just get yourself the best lawyers you can probably find, because you will need them ;)
[+] [-] mattmaroon|17 years ago|reply
Hulu might make that possible, but it hasn't yet.
[+] [-] jmtulloss|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] callmeed|17 years ago|reply
Allow podcasters to opt-in to a web interface to video podcasts–integrate mid/pre-roll ads and split the revenue with the content providers. Allow viewers to set their favorite channels and be notified when new episodes are available.
For the "friendly set of content providers", help them create a workflow that gets the content to you as easily as possible.
What are the best lawyers required if you're working directly with the content creators? (assuming they don't already have existing contracts)
[+] [-] cunard3|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] comatose_kid|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] arockwell|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Tichy|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mainsequence|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] run4yourlives|17 years ago|reply
Between net-neutrality, restrictive piracy laws and all sorts of anti-consumer tools we are far from seeing the notion of TV as it currently exists being effectively replaced.
[+] [-] steveplace|17 years ago|reply
http://blogmaverick.com/2009/01/27/the-great-internet-video-...
Not that I agree with him, but it's nice to have discourse.
[+] [-] axod|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] arincrumley|17 years ago|reply
I've co-founded a research and development project to function as a think tank designing this future model.
For content creators there is a big focus around compensating the creation of culture. If society considers culture to be a valuable thing, then that culture will earn it's value back. In other words, we won't see inflated monetary compensation to content creators, but there will be compensation that supports them making more. That is if anyone cares about the things they make. And that's I suppose why we call this democracy.
[+] [-] Chaigneau|17 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wensing|17 years ago|reply
We've received a steady stream of feedback regarding Stormpulse.com from people who are abandoning TV coverage of hurricanes (yes, even that of The Weather Channel) in favor of our site. We're also happy to be the owners of Stormpulse.tv.
[+] [-] _b8r0|17 years ago|reply
For me, Boxee is the most disruptive offering I've seen and it's precisely a combination of the social and Internet-based elements that makes me try to convince everyone I know to use it. I don't see Boxee killing TV, but like XBMC before it, it's one hell of a disruptive concept.
I also agree that some sort of set top box combining telephony, TV, Radio and Internet will displace regular TV. Cable and telephony companies have already been moving towards this with 'triple play' offerings.
I on the other hand have had this kind of integration since 2003 with MythTV.
[+] [-] dkarl|17 years ago|reply
You can pass hours of time on YouTube, but the content, while passably stimulating, just doesn't bear repeating. You can't crack your friends up by making some sly reference to it a month from now. Unless, that is, you're watching something that is well-written, well-produced, and well-acted. And in that case, you'll probably call it "television" to distinguish it from random thirty-second clips of some guy farting at his cat (America's Funniest Home Videos notwithstanding.)
When music moved from live venues to vinyl, it was still called music. When it moved from vinyl to cassettes to CDs, it was still called music. Now it's on the internet, and it's called... music! Television programming has been called "television" or "TV" for over half a century. I bet people will still call it "television." We think about it as "television versus the computer," but the younger generation thinks, "Why is it so hard to find television on the internet? I want to watch TV on my computer, not on the TV." That isn't contradictory at all. That's just the way the words are used. If you pick the right meaning of "TV," then TV might die, but it isn't interesting unless you stand to make or lose money on it. The TV that most people care about has a long life ahead of it.
[+] [-] tokenadult|17 years ago|reply
The power of point-to-point cannot be overestimated. Indeed it had great impact in getting people to sign up for Internet access and connect a computer to the Internet in the first place. I discovered online interaction in 1992, when I attended a conference about homeschooling in Washington state and saw a demonstration of the Prodigy online service there. I made sure to connect a modem to my computer (remember dial-up?) and soon entered into interesting conversations with people all over the country about a common topic of interest. None of the content I was reading was produced by professionals--it was all parents talking to other parents. My online interaction completely displaced TV from my life, and soon greatly reduced the number of postal letters I sent to friends, because I could reach most of my best friends online anyway.
Sometime a while later in the 1990s, I saw an analysis in an industry magazine about whether the main application of the Internet would be broadcasting of professionally produced content or point-to-point communication. That analysis pointed out that at that time the revenues of the Baby Bell companies were MANY times greater than the revenues of all the movie and TV production companies. Point-to-point is where the revenue streams are. Broadcasting doesn't draw in as much money, because it doesn't appeal to as many audience members in as many ways.
My use of television now consists just about entirely of watching the local TV news and one network news program broadcast to my home with my children. We don't watch any dramas, and only occasionally watch Saturday Night Live's opening segment. (We don't subscribe to cable and live in an area with an unwatchable digital signal, so we resort to just one analog broadcast signal at the moment.) TV is expendable in our house. Internet-connected computer use is indispensable.
[+] [-] rm999|17 years ago|reply
Can someone explain that line to me? I don't see facebook mentioned anywhere else.
I generally consider myself pretty on top of ways to watch TV on my computer (I've been doing the RSS bit torrent thing pretty much since it's been possible), but I have never seen any common thread between facebook and tv. "Internet killed TV" I can agree with.
[+] [-] froo|17 years ago|reply
YouTube, Facebook, Myspace etc are among the most visited sites and are all about connecting with each other.
Among the younger crowd, people spend more time online than they do infront of their TV.
So, While Facebook itself didn't kill TV, the assertion that social activities online killed TV is becoming increasingly true, especially as more content producers start distributing their stuff online.
Paul just put it in a broad manner (although not 100% accurate, but close enough).
[+] [-] HeyLaughingBoy|17 years ago|reply
I mean, I'm not a big YouTube fan: I normally get linked there to metalworking/machining videos but once there I stay for a long time. YouTube is really sticky. This kind of stuff is candy for me and linked with well targeted ads, the provider can make money. I know that if I'm watching some guy in a basement show how he built a CNC lathe, I wouldn't mind even really obvious product placement or a short 10-15 second commercial about machining before the video starts.
There are many, many talented people out there who could be making their own videos and profiting from it. Is the problem just lack of sponsorship or a good advertising model?
There has to be business opportunity here. Maybe a site that video artists can go to with samples of their work looking to be matched with suitable sponsors.