The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you).
I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, but they seem to handle sports only.
Prediction markets don't necessarily have to be real currency and it's a misconception that they are only accurate if you're using real money. We have run a prediction market using fantasy currency for years: http://home.inklingmarkets.com. We also run run private markets for companies...
gwern|13 years ago
I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, but they seem to handle sports only.
adam|13 years ago
rishimoko|13 years ago
carbocation|13 years ago