As someone who is in his 20s (for another year!) and dating of the same age, my belief is because the current generation has a real lack of motivation.
I think it is something those of us on sites like this one, and in our field in general do not notice, we tend to surround ourselves with highly driven and motivated people, but we really are the exception to the rule.
Roughly 60% of the young women I have dated (generally aged 22 and up, college graduates) had no real future focus. They weren't looking forward to or striving for any sort of goal. They were just sort of existing.
Switching tracks a bit, I remember having a conversation with a man about my age, he had an undergraduate degree in psychology and a masters in a related field. He was talking about how poorly developed the social skills of many young adults in this area is (true, Puget Sound is a tech haven and a lack of social skills go along with that) and how much he would love to start up a program to teach social skills to engineers. And hey, I agreed, that is a great idea, there is a large market for that in the area, he would have customers lining up around the block!
So I asked him why he hadn't done it yet. "Because the government has cut funding to social programs and there is no way I could get money for it."
He then proceeded to spend the next 20 or so minutes complaining about how it was the governments fault that he couldn't achieve his dream.
When I recommended a small business loan, or even writing up a business proposal and seeking private funding, he brushed my suggestions aside and went back to complaining about how he needed government help to get his idea up off the ground.
Everyone on this site knows that if he really had aspirations, he would find a way to make them happen. He's living in an area surrounded by people with 6 figure income and plenty of 7 figure incomes a few miles away, private fund raising alone would easily pay for his minimal expenses to get started.
But he wasn't passionate enough to actually do anything, and he is one of the few people I have encountered who have any passion at all.
I have had friends (my age group) tell me that I need to stop being so aggressive, stop being so perfectionist, stop working so hard. "Why do you try to do such a good job at everything you do? There is no need for that."
Then I walk over to my friends who are in the tech sector. We strive for the best, we talk about what we want to happen in the future, what our dreams our, what we are working towards, what house we want to buy (if any), what projects we want to work on.
And we are the lazy ones who don't have enough initiative to found our own start up! (And we all feel guilty about it, we damn well know we should)
Then of course there is the Y Combinator crowd, who are fueled by nothing but drive and passion.
So, going back to the beginning.
A lot of the young adults who have "given up hope" never had any hope to begin with. They sort of wanted a job somewhere, but they didn't want it more than anything else. They didn't desire it, they didn't need it, and they sure as heck didn't make a plan of how exactly to get it.
Oh, Christ. Start-up wankery has its place, but something to keep in mind: there's nothing that makes working for a start-up the be-all, end-all of a meaningful life.
You complain about people just wanting to exist and live and enjoy time with their friends and family? And that they don't have grand dreams of starting a business, running it, doing a bunch of shit that's secondary to their actual interests?
Here's the thing: no one should have to start their own business to be successful in life. Not all people are cut out for it. And just because you're a 20-something guy who's willing to spend 60-80 hours a week working to change the world with a social networking site for cat photographers so that some VC can make bank doesn't mean that other people are somehow inferior because they don't want to.
Not everyone can be a special snowflake, and that's fine. Some people want to work a 9 to 5 job and then head home to cook dinner with their loved ones. In the past that's been possible, but increasingly for our generation it's becoming harder and harder. And that's a societal failure.
@com2kid You're spot on. As a recent college graduate (at a non-traditional age: in my 30's) I saw a TON of exactly what you describe. Our peer group (not the Hacker News peer group, clearly, but the rest of the 20 to mid-30s group) is, by and large, listless. They simply don't have much drive or motivation. They're--as you put it so aptly--merely "existing."
I attribute this to changes in "higher" education. High school isn't about academics most places for most people; And college isn't either. High school for most people most places is about socializing and being a place for busy parents to send their kids for the work day. College is just a place to put off getting a job, and a place to party and continue socializing.
Their is a myth in college that "C's get degrees" and all you need is "a piece of paper." Students believe that as long as they have a degree in anything they'll be able to get a good job. So they select the easiest degree that matches their interests and abilities. Of course, not all degrees are equally as valuable to employers. And there's only so much demand for various specialties. But most students aren't familiar with the BLS statistics on which jobs are in demand now, how much they pay on average, what the jobs associated with various degrees entailed, and what the predicted outlook is for various professions. They just assume that a degree, any degree, is all they need and riches await. So they graduate to discover that numerous peers also pursued their easy "soft" degree in college, got average grades, and are now competing for the same jobs. The employers can't tell one applicant from another when they're all so average, so they just pick one and the rest go to work as waiters, taxi drivers, gas station attendants, etc.
In short: we're producing far more graduates in certain fields than the market requires; and far less in other fields than the market demands. And we can't really expect this to change until we start educating students in high school and college about how many jobs are available in various fields, and what they pay. We need to also work to defeat the myth that everyone "needs" a college education and that all you need is a degree, any degree, to get a good job. Some people aren't cut out for college and would be happier earning great money as an electrician, or machinist, mechanic, plumber, etc. And those who are a good fit for college would be more effective if they selected more quantitative degrees which match their interests and abilities. In other words, those who do college should not look at it as a time to put off going to work, or a time to party--they should look at it as the few precious years they have to prepare themselves as best they can to get a good job...take the hardest classes they can, expand their horizons, and distinguish themselves from their peers (do undergraduate research, do more than required, get better grades than required, diversify, etc.).
The other element is that our peer group plays the victim a lot. They don't own their own lives, happiness, or success. Granted, this is a broad statement, but many of them really place the blame for things on others. They blame someone else (the government, evil corporations, etc) for their lack of a job. They blame others for their inability to follow their dreams or carry out big aspirations (like your friend).
The truth is that for all of us, we need to take responsibility for making our lives what we want them to be. We can't blame others for not telling us how worthless a Film & TV degree is, or for not giving us a great job, or for not supporting our brilliant venture.
In short, I've blathered on at length when your post did an excellent job of succinctly saying the same thing. Thank you for your comment.
As someone in his 50s, I can tell you that my generation was criticized for lack of motivation. The generation before mine was criticized for lack of motivation. You can find criticisms of the younger generation's lack of motivation (and lack of manners, and respect for their elders, and taste in music, and ...) written in ancient Greek over 2500 years ago.
Different people are motivated to different degrees, to do different things. A list of anecdotes won't convince me that there's any sort of trend in either direction.
Sometimes the worship of the startup culture gets to be a bit much... there's nothing inherently more valuable about making your own startup than there is in working for someone else, and you also forgot to add "money" to the list of things that drive the YC crowd.
We're basically still inside of a global economic recession and no amount of drive and passion can fix that for everybody. There are certainly some edge cases who can make entrepreneurship work but when you have 25% unemployment for a certain age group you have to assume that there's something else in play beyond a lack of motivation.
Great comment! I'm similarly situated in life and know plenty of people my age who aren't so well situated. While my anecdotes tend to differ from yours in that I don't see a general lack of motivation, you've already handled that argument; perhaps I just know people who are highly driven rule-exceptions.
Having said that, I do believe there was a time in this country when going to college meant you were a motivated person who could expect a high likelihood of success finding a good job after graduating. This seems to be different now. More people go to college now, which could either represent an increase in the number of people who are motivated or a decrease in the proportion of people who go to college despite being unmotivated. A smaller proportion of college graduates are successful in finding a good job, which could either mean that it has changed in lock-step with the diminishing level of student motivation or that there are motivated students who now have more trouble finding good jobs.
My anecdotal sense of both of these things is that increasing college attendance is a sign of more young people being more motivated than ever rather than a sign of unmotivated people increasingly attending college, and that the market for good jobs for college graduates has lagged behind the number of motivated graduates competing for them. I think there was a time that people with humanities degrees from good schools were widely thought by businesses to be highly intelligent, hard-working, and imminently employable. Now I see people scoff at such degrees as the useless outcome of bad decision-making. Perhaps the new reality is that far more people need to be motivated to develop the passion and drive required to succeed in a business of their own making, but I personally think it's a shame that there seems to be far less room these days for people who just want to work hard for someone else.
I'm always perplexed by the (possibly rhetorical) surprised tone of these kinds of articles. As if it wasn't glaringly obvious that young people are getting screwed because of their lack of employment histories combined with an ultra-competitive job market (for most industries).
The discussion then usually turns to how young people have useless degrees or are lazy or entitled, or some other monday morning quarterback commentary. The reality is that prior generations goofed off and made blind decisions just like this one. They just had more of cushion to rebound from.
I'm steadily employed in a fantastic job but have been on the other side of the fence as well. One thing is obvious: most white-collar, educated people who already had jobs before 2008 are doing just fine, haven't noticed a thing, and don't give a neuron to thinking about unemployed people.
This is just another indication to me that there is a growing class divide and there will be plenty of losers (and no, the rising tide doesn't help undeveloped, inexperienced college grads with nondischargable debt). The means of production are now more abstract than owning factories -- they're owning the information networks. We have yet to see anything close to the sufficient political will or desire in DC to bust up these modern day trusts (like Teddy Roosevelt did with the industrialists a century ago). By design, they're harder to identify and harder to educate the public about. And with mass media stomping out thoughtful journalism due to basic economics and a civically uninterested public, where's the opposition going to come from?
If you happen to be in a line of work that helps those in power (like most programmers), you'll probably thrive. If you don't, you're going to have a tough road ahead: our public institutions are behaving more and more like results-driven board-run corporations. They're misappropriating improved efficiency to matters that benefit more from longer-term strategies ("Instant Dashboards! Metrics! Data-Driven Decisions!"). I fear most the speed at which the consolidation of power could take place (aided by the speed of technological progress).
> One thing is obvious: most white-collar, educated people who already had jobs before 2008 are doing just fine, haven't noticed a thing, and don't give a neuron to thinking about unemployed people.
I remember reading an article around 2008 (in the Economist, I think) based on a (then recent) research paper that showed that people who graduated during a recession had a lot more to lose in the long run (smaller wages etc) compared to people who graduated during "normal" times.
We're 5 years later, the "recession" supposedly ended three or four years ago (I'm talking about the US here), and yet things don't seem to have reverted back to normal. Unless maybe this is in fact the new normal.
I know from personal experience much of the last 5 years worth of work for me (software / algorithm design) has been building automation. Helping companies that were struggling push forward by replacing human workers with software.
Perhaps in the recent down years companies were pressured to become more efficient and now that the economy is picking up they are reluctant to go back to hiring people versus paying for software and automation.
/completeSpeculation
I can think of two companies I've consulted with since 2008 where the CEO's told me they were picking up a new contract(s) that would represent massive growth (200-300%) but that they wanted to keep their same labor force without having to hire.
Because too many of them are busy looking for other people to give them employment (which has been difficult for employers to do), instead of figuring out how to create wealth on their own. If more created their own businesses, they would probably be able to hire the rest — you know, the ones working in coffee shops and retail. See http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/magazine/what-the-fate-of-..., for example.
It's an odd thing: the startup community often has all of the smug traits of the out-of-touch, old-money elite, but has none of their gifts for enjoying leisure. It's a particularly awful combination in my opinion.
And wages as a whole have diverged from productivity since the 70s. That we're happy that wages are once again keeping pace with inflation --another way of saying "well, at least we're no longer losing money"-- is depressing in this context.
>What might help? Easing the parts of the regulatory thicket without societal benefits. Providing public financing for the sorts of early-stage scientific research and physical infrastructure that the private sector often finds unprofitable. Long term, nothing is likely to matter more than improving educational attainment, from preschool through college (which may have started already).
So... we socialize the substantial costs of doing business (infrastructure and research), cut back on "the parts of the regulatory thicket without societal benefits," --whatever that means-- and just keep pumping people through college. Has Leonhardt being paying attention at all?
We already subsidize infrastructure and research costs. Hell, it's become standard policy that no corporation shall break ground anywhere unless the host promises it special favors and decreased (or absolutely no) taxes. Regulations are more industry specific. The big ticket ones however typically revolve around finance and environment. Perhaps we should ask --well, damn near anyone-- how the year 2009 was for them financially. Perhaps we should ask the Chinese just how "without societal benefits" all of those environmental regulations are. And college? We're putting more students through than ever before. And they are predictably finding that, as the number of people with degrees rises, the value placed on their own degree decreases. And what does the hiring company look for? Experience.
>Many business executives and economists also point to immigration policy. Done right, an overhaul could make a difference, many say, by allowing more highly skilled immigrants to enter the country and by making life easier for those immigrants already here. Historically, immigrants have started more than their share of new companies.
AND we need more H-1B's? This guy's a real piece of work. We already have the ability to bring in extraordinary talent. We don't need 50,000 more outsource firm slots.
==========
Here's the thing: businesses will hire exactly as many employees as they need. No more. Perhaps less, if they can get away with it. And if they run the remaining folks at break-neck pace long enough, that level will become the new "need" level. No amount of policy or regulatory finagling is going to make a lick of difference. By bending over for Corporate America, all you're doing is throwing taxpayer money at them with the vague and unsubstantiated hope that they'll take on a few more employees. This is beyond stupid. As business becomes more automated --not mechanized, automated, as in no human required-- you can expect fewer jobs to remain and for the employment rates to level off or decline.
> AND we need more H-1B's? This guy's a real piece of work. We already have the ability to bring in extraordinary talent. We don't need 50,000 more outsource firm slots.
Being on the hiring side of things, America needs all the talent it can get. Hiring good software engineers is seriously hard.
Maybe the problem is just connecting people with jobs, but given the low unemployment rate in the tech sector, I really doubt it.
Having to interview 5 candidates before finding one who just knows how malloc works isn't fun.
Indeed, one of our high quality engineers had to be sent back to his home country after his work visa expired, we are hoping to get him in on H-1B, and I believe he got approved, but now we have to sit and wait for government wheels to churn.
America should make it as easy as possible for highly motivated and talented individuals to come here. Jobs, heck, entire new industries will be created.
Isn't that the entire lesson from start-up culture? Get talented highly motivated people together, let them achieve their dreams (with someone who knows business and finances overseeing things!), and the economy will grow.
As a 23 year old working in tech, I can say that much of my graduating class had no immediate plans to start a career and even more had no desire to relocate to a place that jobs were more plentiful. How do we fix this? We stop telling everyone that they are gifted and things will work out from an early age. We get far more out of constructive feedback as to why our project wasn't the best or why we lost than being told we're great in the face of defeat, getting a trophy, and going home with no fuel to better ourselves.
Like many people here, I work for a software company. We develop business automation software. Perhaps unlike most though, I'm closer to the bottom line (Sales Engineer), and are more closely tuned in to the types of business conversations our customers have when they are thinking about whether to buy our software.
Often times, the conversation revolves around the fact that the software we sell makes the average worker so ridiculously productive that often times they start being able to do the work of two people. They no longer have to spend time searching for important documents or worry about replacing lost/damaged ones, or pushing paper documents from one department to the other, or waiting for a certain supervisor to come back from a business trip so that they can sign off on stuff. For most knowledge workers this translates to at least a couple of hours of productivity gains everyday, if not more.
What do businesses do with these productivity gains? From what we have seen, the overwhelming majority use the opportunity to lay off workers they no longer need. The reason is simple: their company addresses a certain amount of customer demand, and if they can meet that demand with half the workforce then why not lay off the rest and become more profitable?
Over the years, this phenomenon has led me to the conclusion that the main problem with the economy is lack of consumer demand. If consumer demand was increasing, then companies would hire more employees despite the efficiency gains they get from automation. Or, at the very least, they would be less prone to lay people off, because their existing workforce would be more able to handle the demand by becoming more productive.
Traditionally, the main source of consumer demand in America has been the middle-class. If we find a way to bring that back, everybody wins.
Ironically, the middle class isn't coming back until the employment situation improves, with consequent improvements in salaries etc.
Soon we're going to be seeing low-skill jobs go almost entirely to machines, while higher-skill work gets more and more levered up. I expect at the pace we're going (on both technology and economy), that will happen before we ever recover from the current crisis. A large percentage of workers are not going to have much to offer, economically, and I'm not sure where we go from there.
So it's a chicken an egg situation. If consumers aren't demanding it's probably because they don't have enough disposable income and if the ways of obtaining an income are becoming scarcer then you have a positive feedback effect which depresses the economy. The economic question then becomes one of how to break that positive feedback.
Do you read Paul Krugman at all? I cut his blog out of my information diet a while ago, but before I did, he was beating the "lack of demand" drum pretty loudly.
[+] [-] com2kid|13 years ago|reply
I think it is something those of us on sites like this one, and in our field in general do not notice, we tend to surround ourselves with highly driven and motivated people, but we really are the exception to the rule.
Roughly 60% of the young women I have dated (generally aged 22 and up, college graduates) had no real future focus. They weren't looking forward to or striving for any sort of goal. They were just sort of existing.
Switching tracks a bit, I remember having a conversation with a man about my age, he had an undergraduate degree in psychology and a masters in a related field. He was talking about how poorly developed the social skills of many young adults in this area is (true, Puget Sound is a tech haven and a lack of social skills go along with that) and how much he would love to start up a program to teach social skills to engineers. And hey, I agreed, that is a great idea, there is a large market for that in the area, he would have customers lining up around the block!
So I asked him why he hadn't done it yet. "Because the government has cut funding to social programs and there is no way I could get money for it."
He then proceeded to spend the next 20 or so minutes complaining about how it was the governments fault that he couldn't achieve his dream.
When I recommended a small business loan, or even writing up a business proposal and seeking private funding, he brushed my suggestions aside and went back to complaining about how he needed government help to get his idea up off the ground.
Everyone on this site knows that if he really had aspirations, he would find a way to make them happen. He's living in an area surrounded by people with 6 figure income and plenty of 7 figure incomes a few miles away, private fund raising alone would easily pay for his minimal expenses to get started.
But he wasn't passionate enough to actually do anything, and he is one of the few people I have encountered who have any passion at all.
I have had friends (my age group) tell me that I need to stop being so aggressive, stop being so perfectionist, stop working so hard. "Why do you try to do such a good job at everything you do? There is no need for that."
Then I walk over to my friends who are in the tech sector. We strive for the best, we talk about what we want to happen in the future, what our dreams our, what we are working towards, what house we want to buy (if any), what projects we want to work on.
And we are the lazy ones who don't have enough initiative to found our own start up! (And we all feel guilty about it, we damn well know we should)
Then of course there is the Y Combinator crowd, who are fueled by nothing but drive and passion.
So, going back to the beginning.
A lot of the young adults who have "given up hope" never had any hope to begin with. They sort of wanted a job somewhere, but they didn't want it more than anything else. They didn't desire it, they didn't need it, and they sure as heck didn't make a plan of how exactly to get it.
[+] [-] scarmig|13 years ago|reply
You complain about people just wanting to exist and live and enjoy time with their friends and family? And that they don't have grand dreams of starting a business, running it, doing a bunch of shit that's secondary to their actual interests?
Here's the thing: no one should have to start their own business to be successful in life. Not all people are cut out for it. And just because you're a 20-something guy who's willing to spend 60-80 hours a week working to change the world with a social networking site for cat photographers so that some VC can make bank doesn't mean that other people are somehow inferior because they don't want to.
Not everyone can be a special snowflake, and that's fine. Some people want to work a 9 to 5 job and then head home to cook dinner with their loved ones. In the past that's been possible, but increasingly for our generation it's becoming harder and harder. And that's a societal failure.
[+] [-] laughfactory|13 years ago|reply
I attribute this to changes in "higher" education. High school isn't about academics most places for most people; And college isn't either. High school for most people most places is about socializing and being a place for busy parents to send their kids for the work day. College is just a place to put off getting a job, and a place to party and continue socializing.
Their is a myth in college that "C's get degrees" and all you need is "a piece of paper." Students believe that as long as they have a degree in anything they'll be able to get a good job. So they select the easiest degree that matches their interests and abilities. Of course, not all degrees are equally as valuable to employers. And there's only so much demand for various specialties. But most students aren't familiar with the BLS statistics on which jobs are in demand now, how much they pay on average, what the jobs associated with various degrees entailed, and what the predicted outlook is for various professions. They just assume that a degree, any degree, is all they need and riches await. So they graduate to discover that numerous peers also pursued their easy "soft" degree in college, got average grades, and are now competing for the same jobs. The employers can't tell one applicant from another when they're all so average, so they just pick one and the rest go to work as waiters, taxi drivers, gas station attendants, etc.
In short: we're producing far more graduates in certain fields than the market requires; and far less in other fields than the market demands. And we can't really expect this to change until we start educating students in high school and college about how many jobs are available in various fields, and what they pay. We need to also work to defeat the myth that everyone "needs" a college education and that all you need is a degree, any degree, to get a good job. Some people aren't cut out for college and would be happier earning great money as an electrician, or machinist, mechanic, plumber, etc. And those who are a good fit for college would be more effective if they selected more quantitative degrees which match their interests and abilities. In other words, those who do college should not look at it as a time to put off going to work, or a time to party--they should look at it as the few precious years they have to prepare themselves as best they can to get a good job...take the hardest classes they can, expand their horizons, and distinguish themselves from their peers (do undergraduate research, do more than required, get better grades than required, diversify, etc.).
The other element is that our peer group plays the victim a lot. They don't own their own lives, happiness, or success. Granted, this is a broad statement, but many of them really place the blame for things on others. They blame someone else (the government, evil corporations, etc) for their lack of a job. They blame others for their inability to follow their dreams or carry out big aspirations (like your friend).
The truth is that for all of us, we need to take responsibility for making our lives what we want them to be. We can't blame others for not telling us how worthless a Film & TV degree is, or for not giving us a great job, or for not supporting our brilliant venture.
In short, I've blathered on at length when your post did an excellent job of succinctly saying the same thing. Thank you for your comment.
[+] [-] jleader|13 years ago|reply
Different people are motivated to different degrees, to do different things. A list of anecdotes won't convince me that there's any sort of trend in either direction.
[+] [-] princess3000|13 years ago|reply
We're basically still inside of a global economic recession and no amount of drive and passion can fix that for everybody. There are certainly some edge cases who can make entrepreneurship work but when you have 25% unemployment for a certain age group you have to assume that there's something else in play beyond a lack of motivation.
[+] [-] sanderjd|13 years ago|reply
Having said that, I do believe there was a time in this country when going to college meant you were a motivated person who could expect a high likelihood of success finding a good job after graduating. This seems to be different now. More people go to college now, which could either represent an increase in the number of people who are motivated or a decrease in the proportion of people who go to college despite being unmotivated. A smaller proportion of college graduates are successful in finding a good job, which could either mean that it has changed in lock-step with the diminishing level of student motivation or that there are motivated students who now have more trouble finding good jobs.
My anecdotal sense of both of these things is that increasing college attendance is a sign of more young people being more motivated than ever rather than a sign of unmotivated people increasingly attending college, and that the market for good jobs for college graduates has lagged behind the number of motivated graduates competing for them. I think there was a time that people with humanities degrees from good schools were widely thought by businesses to be highly intelligent, hard-working, and imminently employable. Now I see people scoff at such degrees as the useless outcome of bad decision-making. Perhaps the new reality is that far more people need to be motivated to develop the passion and drive required to succeed in a business of their own making, but I personally think it's a shame that there seems to be far less room these days for people who just want to work hard for someone else.
[+] [-] aridiculous|13 years ago|reply
The discussion then usually turns to how young people have useless degrees or are lazy or entitled, or some other monday morning quarterback commentary. The reality is that prior generations goofed off and made blind decisions just like this one. They just had more of cushion to rebound from.
I'm steadily employed in a fantastic job but have been on the other side of the fence as well. One thing is obvious: most white-collar, educated people who already had jobs before 2008 are doing just fine, haven't noticed a thing, and don't give a neuron to thinking about unemployed people.
This is just another indication to me that there is a growing class divide and there will be plenty of losers (and no, the rising tide doesn't help undeveloped, inexperienced college grads with nondischargable debt). The means of production are now more abstract than owning factories -- they're owning the information networks. We have yet to see anything close to the sufficient political will or desire in DC to bust up these modern day trusts (like Teddy Roosevelt did with the industrialists a century ago). By design, they're harder to identify and harder to educate the public about. And with mass media stomping out thoughtful journalism due to basic economics and a civically uninterested public, where's the opposition going to come from?
If you happen to be in a line of work that helps those in power (like most programmers), you'll probably thrive. If you don't, you're going to have a tough road ahead: our public institutions are behaving more and more like results-driven board-run corporations. They're misappropriating improved efficiency to matters that benefit more from longer-term strategies ("Instant Dashboards! Metrics! Data-Driven Decisions!"). I fear most the speed at which the consolidation of power could take place (aided by the speed of technological progress).
Have a great weekend :)
[+] [-] paganel|13 years ago|reply
I remember reading an article around 2008 (in the Economist, I think) based on a (then recent) research paper that showed that people who graduated during a recession had a lot more to lose in the long run (smaller wages etc) compared to people who graduated during "normal" times.
We're 5 years later, the "recession" supposedly ended three or four years ago (I'm talking about the US here), and yet things don't seem to have reverted back to normal. Unless maybe this is in fact the new normal.
[+] [-] jellicle|13 years ago|reply
But there isn't a rising tide. Wages are falling. If you work for a living, your job will pay you less next year than it did this year.
[+] [-] ljd|13 years ago|reply
Perhaps in the recent down years companies were pressured to become more efficient and now that the economy is picking up they are reluctant to go back to hiring people versus paying for software and automation.
/completeSpeculation
I can think of two companies I've consulted with since 2008 where the CEO's told me they were picking up a new contract(s) that would represent massive growth (200-300%) but that they wanted to keep their same labor force without having to hire.
[+] [-] gcv|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aridiculous|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] UVB-76|13 years ago|reply
Starting a business is the obvious solution! Why didn't people think of it sooner?
[+] [-] ChrisLTD|13 years ago|reply
Low demand on the consumer side has meant that businesses don't need to expand and hire people.
[+] [-] woodchuck64|13 years ago|reply
So this article should be titled: "Why are Uneducated Young Americans Jobless."
[+] [-] aridiculous|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aspensmonster|13 years ago|reply
Anyway.
>Average wages are no longer trailing inflation.
And wages as a whole have diverged from productivity since the 70s. That we're happy that wages are once again keeping pace with inflation --another way of saying "well, at least we're no longer losing money"-- is depressing in this context.
>What might help? Easing the parts of the regulatory thicket without societal benefits. Providing public financing for the sorts of early-stage scientific research and physical infrastructure that the private sector often finds unprofitable. Long term, nothing is likely to matter more than improving educational attainment, from preschool through college (which may have started already).
So... we socialize the substantial costs of doing business (infrastructure and research), cut back on "the parts of the regulatory thicket without societal benefits," --whatever that means-- and just keep pumping people through college. Has Leonhardt being paying attention at all?
We already subsidize infrastructure and research costs. Hell, it's become standard policy that no corporation shall break ground anywhere unless the host promises it special favors and decreased (or absolutely no) taxes. Regulations are more industry specific. The big ticket ones however typically revolve around finance and environment. Perhaps we should ask --well, damn near anyone-- how the year 2009 was for them financially. Perhaps we should ask the Chinese just how "without societal benefits" all of those environmental regulations are. And college? We're putting more students through than ever before. And they are predictably finding that, as the number of people with degrees rises, the value placed on their own degree decreases. And what does the hiring company look for? Experience.
>Many business executives and economists also point to immigration policy. Done right, an overhaul could make a difference, many say, by allowing more highly skilled immigrants to enter the country and by making life easier for those immigrants already here. Historically, immigrants have started more than their share of new companies.
AND we need more H-1B's? This guy's a real piece of work. We already have the ability to bring in extraordinary talent. We don't need 50,000 more outsource firm slots.
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Here's the thing: businesses will hire exactly as many employees as they need. No more. Perhaps less, if they can get away with it. And if they run the remaining folks at break-neck pace long enough, that level will become the new "need" level. No amount of policy or regulatory finagling is going to make a lick of difference. By bending over for Corporate America, all you're doing is throwing taxpayer money at them with the vague and unsubstantiated hope that they'll take on a few more employees. This is beyond stupid. As business becomes more automated --not mechanized, automated, as in no human required-- you can expect fewer jobs to remain and for the employment rates to level off or decline.
[+] [-] com2kid|13 years ago|reply
Being on the hiring side of things, America needs all the talent it can get. Hiring good software engineers is seriously hard.
Maybe the problem is just connecting people with jobs, but given the low unemployment rate in the tech sector, I really doubt it.
Having to interview 5 candidates before finding one who just knows how malloc works isn't fun.
Indeed, one of our high quality engineers had to be sent back to his home country after his work visa expired, we are hoping to get him in on H-1B, and I believe he got approved, but now we have to sit and wait for government wheels to churn.
America should make it as easy as possible for highly motivated and talented individuals to come here. Jobs, heck, entire new industries will be created.
Isn't that the entire lesson from start-up culture? Get talented highly motivated people together, let them achieve their dreams (with someone who knows business and finances overseeing things!), and the economy will grow.
[+] [-] hbnyc|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] enraged_camel|13 years ago|reply
Often times, the conversation revolves around the fact that the software we sell makes the average worker so ridiculously productive that often times they start being able to do the work of two people. They no longer have to spend time searching for important documents or worry about replacing lost/damaged ones, or pushing paper documents from one department to the other, or waiting for a certain supervisor to come back from a business trip so that they can sign off on stuff. For most knowledge workers this translates to at least a couple of hours of productivity gains everyday, if not more.
What do businesses do with these productivity gains? From what we have seen, the overwhelming majority use the opportunity to lay off workers they no longer need. The reason is simple: their company addresses a certain amount of customer demand, and if they can meet that demand with half the workforce then why not lay off the rest and become more profitable?
Over the years, this phenomenon has led me to the conclusion that the main problem with the economy is lack of consumer demand. If consumer demand was increasing, then companies would hire more employees despite the efficiency gains they get from automation. Or, at the very least, they would be less prone to lay people off, because their existing workforce would be more able to handle the demand by becoming more productive.
Traditionally, the main source of consumer demand in America has been the middle-class. If we find a way to bring that back, everybody wins.
[+] [-] svachalek|13 years ago|reply
Soon we're going to be seeing low-skill jobs go almost entirely to machines, while higher-skill work gets more and more levered up. I expect at the pace we're going (on both technology and economy), that will happen before we ever recover from the current crisis. A large percentage of workers are not going to have much to offer, economically, and I'm not sure where we go from there.
[+] [-] motters|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] meej|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] revelation|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Swisscoder|13 years ago|reply