[jd]

Another reason why / short term & software / is the currently the sweet spot is because it allows for short feedback cycles. A startup is a company that searches for a viable business model -- a product-market fit. When you create web based applications you can gather data, A/B test and do a lot of stuff that allows you to make measurable progress in the right direction.

When working in hardware or when working on long term software projects like AI you're in a vacuum. And even smart people are not going to do very well if they can't see the consequences of the decisions they make.

So long term projects take more people, more resources, are typically much harder problems and on top of that you won't be able to collect data early on to adjust course if needed. So the risk-adjusted return on an ambitious long-term startup is going to be horrendous compared to the low-hanging fruit most web startups go for. So investors avoid the big and ambitious ideas, and I can't blame them.