[onetimeonly]

It's not the toupee fallacy - in this case I started with a large sample of fraudsters in my circle and know the outcome for all of them.

[driverdan]

You know a small subsample of the total number of people committing fraud. I'm a former blackhat / ID thief / fraudster too. I worked for the US secret service for 2 years and saw what percentage of people were caught. And those were just the online fraudsters we knew about.