I really like this post, but I think the take away from the Gambler’s Fallacy is something different... I think it says a lot more about causation. Like the reason it should land on red is because it landed on black before this... you were close with your examples but I think it really says something more about believing that the reason A is happening because of B when really it isn't that clearly linked.
Great point Articulate! It's certainly true that causation (or, with the Gambler's Fallacy, falsely-presumed causation) plays a part in the post, but at the same time the importance of statistics cannot be overplayed. The correlation between preexisting and current trends is strongly emphasized; this can lead to that falsely-presumed causation you mentioned, and that in turn can lead to people treading water and ultimately failing. We're both in agreement that A doesn't necessarily equate to B though, and that's the overarching message behind the Gambler's Fallacy in sales and business. Just because a customer has bought from you before doesn't necessarily mean that they'll buy from you again; you need to wow them by being obsessed with them and their problems.
[+] [-] Articulate|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] handshakezkid|12 years ago|reply