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FaceKicker | 12 years ago

Scenario A: The setup is (1) lose $100, gain 1 ticket (current state is -$100, +1 ticket); (2) lose 1 ticket (current state is -$100, 0 tickets). The choices are (a) lose $100, gain 1 ticket (yields state -$200, +1 ticket) or (b) do nothing (yields state -$100, 0 tickets).

Scenario B: The setup is (1) lose $100 (current state is -$100, 0 tickets). The choices are the same as above.

The final 'state' at the end of each setup is the same, and the choices are the same, so the argument is that a rational actor would make the same choice in both situations. Maybe there's an argument that the state should include more than just $ and tickets though?

discuss

order

hypersoar|12 years ago

Ah, indeed! That'll teach me to think myself exempt from cognitive biases.