top | item 6287340

Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

272 points| bmmayer1 | 12 years ago |nytimes.com | reply

172 comments

order
[+] ricardobeat|12 years ago|reply
Round-up:

✗ EL panels (not yet)

✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari)

✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave

✓ Lame robots

✓ 3D movies

✗ Fusion power plants

✗ Radioactive batteries

✓ Solar power

✓ Self-driving cars (in progress)

✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?)

✓ Video calls

✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books

✓ Global mobile phone network

✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for granted)

✓ Fiber-optics

✓ Unmanned mars missions, plans for a colony (mars one etc)

✓ Flat screen TVs

✓ 3D display tech demos

✓ Meat substitutes

✓ Digital teaching aids (kinda)

✓ Boredom and consumerism

[+] zanny|12 years ago|reply
On some of the missing ones:

1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate.

2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for something running so hot). We probably just don't do it because the radiation risks are too high.

And I'd count airport conveyors as moving sidewalks. Or just the complexity of baggage carrying systemes in those airports, lend that we easily have the technoloy to create weather resistant rotary motor systems as sidewalks, but like Asimovs suggestions of underground housing, cost is the bigger prohibitor than technology.

Also, I don't think the degree of boredom he touches on has occured. Consumerism and the wealth concentration in the US has kept people needing to maintain 40 hour work weeks where productivity is magnitudes higher. We produce vastly more, but work as much as ever. Back in the 60s the sentiment was that 21st century Americans might have 10 hour work weeks.

[+] InclinedPlane|12 years ago|reply
EL panels: those exist, you're probably staring at one right now, it's behind your LCD. LED lighting is also fairly common these days. It's certainly possible for exactly what is described to be installed in a house, it's just not particularly desired.

Adjustable transmissivity glass is a reality but not yet practical enough for it to be ubiquitous.

Radioactive batteries very much do exist, they are called RTGs, and they have given great benefit to spacecraft and other equipment. They power the Curiosity rover, for example. However, they are too impractical and too expensive to be used for ordinary household equipment. This would be true even without the radiation problems of RTGs, which are, of course, significant.

We should have moon colonies by now and ironically the Apollo program is probably the most at fault for that. In order to make it happen a lot of political capital was expended, creating a particular political situation which has become a permanent institution within NASA manned spaceflight (specifically, billions of federal dollars flowing into a few very specific congressional districts which has continued through Apollo and Shuttle programs and now SLS/Orion). If NASA had instead concentrated on a slower program which built up long-lived infrastructure and optimized toward lowering launch costs and increasing capabilities then we would easily have cities (or at least towns) in orbit and moonbases, and Mars bases.

[+] beambot|12 years ago|reply
Smart glass exists (Transitions lenses), as do radioactive batteries (using beta-decay by a company called BetaBatt, and RTGs used by NASA). The former is a commercial success; I've owned and loved the lenses for years. I don't know if the latter is used outside certain sensing, defense, and aerospace applications.
[+] bnegreve|12 years ago|reply
> ✗ Fusion power plants

I disagree! Azimov didn't say that we will be using fusion power, he said that an "experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist".

Which is pretty much what ITER[1] is.

So to me, this is one of the most accurate predictions.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

[+] saraid216|12 years ago|reply
> ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari)

I used to have corrective glasses that did what he described. I can't remember what the type of lens was called, and Google is being unhelpful. But walking in and out of shade was definitely a bit annoying because it kept repolarizing.

> ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?)

I'd say so. Open question: how would we put benches on moving sidewalks?

P.S. I am amused you didn't include hovercars.

[+] hdivider|12 years ago|reply
Digital teaching aids: yes, definitely. I'd say we're doing pretty well on that front.

There's DragonBox, which teaches basic algebra [0]. There's 3D software (Blender etc. or just 3D stuff in a web browser), which, because of its interactivity, makes it much easier to understand complicated 3D shapes (and can help with visualisation when doing group-theoretic calculations).

And then there's all the stuff that we take for granted, e.g. highly optimised search algorithms for teaching material and papers, instant unit conversions and even fairly complicated calculations using Google and Wolfram Alpha, and so on.

Also, Wikipedia.

"Part of the General Electric exhibit today consists of a school of the future in which such present realities as closed-circuit TV and programmed tapes aid the teaching process.."

Compared to some of the items above, it looks like technology has gone well into and even a little beyond merely 'aiding' the teaching process.

[0]: http://www.dragonboxapp.com

(Very good summary BTW - thanks.) =]

[+] solistice|12 years ago|reply
x EL panels No, but they're to expensive for usage on every wall. Personally, I think they'll be pushed towards fringe applications by a technology Asmimov didn't predict. High efficiency LEDs.

x Smart glass Yes, but again a cost question. There's this [http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2012/01/10/t-ts-samsun...], by Samsung. I don't see why you couldn't replace your windows with such screens if you had the spare dough. Also, there's privacy glass, which is cheaper, but still sets you back 500USD/m².

x Fusion power plants. Those might be a couple of years off.

x Radioactive batteries. Exist, but not in the scale and power density Asimov predicts. There are nuclear batteries for pacemakers [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacel].

x Moving sidewalks Yep, only at chokepoints and long stretches of unidirectional people movement indoors.

x Moon colonies. They're on the other side, hiding. Trust me on this one.

A lot of these points are arguable. I'm easily excitable, so I consider technological feasibility/existence as a check, but your view on it may be more somber (It has to be exactly as he predicted). I'm just amazed he got that much of it right.

On a side note, why couldn't the non-asimov prediction with blimp filled skies come true? They're like sky whales...and I really should get some sleep.

[+] tankbot|12 years ago|reply
Do these inventions just have to be complete or in widespread use?

Smart glass is done and has been for a long time. See Transitions Lenses or Speedglas welding masks. I realize it's cost-prohibitive to scale, but there's also SAGE windows, which use liquid crystal to block light.

I'm not sure what qualifies as an EL panel, but LED panels have gotten crazy bright and cheap and are being used more and more.

I count the conveyors in airports as 'moving sidewalks'. :)

I agree Moon colonization was a fail, but to be fair we could colonize the moon, but why would we want to?

[+] scheff|12 years ago|reply
I would be willing to consider the International Space Station an equivalent of the Moon colonies, as it serves much the same purpose; research and training, but is more convenient.
[+] samstave|12 years ago|reply
Don't many (most?) satellites use radioactive batteries?
[+] k__|12 years ago|reply
> And experimental fusion-power plant or two will already

> exist in 2014

They do.

[+] gradstudent|12 years ago|reply
The 3D movies we have now are not the type Asimov is talking about. He's describing holograms.
[+] jpatokal|12 years ago|reply
Asimov's own biases shine through pretty clearly in the initial bit:

One thought that occurs to me is that men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better. By 2014, electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly, and in a variety of colors that will change at the touch of a push button.

Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it.

He was, rather famously, an acrophobe who disliked heights and open spaces and never flew when he could help it, so apparently he'd prefer a future without windows and sunlight.

There is an underground house at the fair which is a sign of the future. if its windows are not polarized, they can nevertheless alter the "scenery" by changes in lighting. Suburban houses underground, with easily controlled temperature, free from the vicissitudes of weather, with air cleaned and light controlled, should be fairly common. At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens. The surface, G.M. will argue, will be given over to large-scale agriculture, grazing and parklands, with less space wasted on actual human occupancy.

This depiction of life pretty much exactly mirrors the completely walled-in life of The Caves of Steel, which many readers found dystopian, but for him was more of a utopia.

http://stason.org/TULARC/education-books/isaac-asimov/2-11-I...

[+] nohuck13|12 years ago|reply
Maybe it's because of biases like these, but we tend to vastly underestimate the timespans in which cities can be radically remade. 50 years? Commercial buildings being built in 1964 would have been expected to last 50+ years. Much of Chicago's lakefront is buildings from the turn of the 20th century or earlier. A skyscraper taller than 47 floors has never been demolished peacefully [1]

1 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20535821

[+] xixixao|12 years ago|reply
This is true, but SPOILER: // // // // In Asimov's universe, humans do end up leaving their caves. So in the end, Asimov turns to the stars. // // //
[+] steamer25|12 years ago|reply
> One thought that occurs to me is that men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better.

This is at least stereotypically true of some sub-cultures: http://i.imgur.com/Tow30.gif

[+] tokenadult|12 years ago|reply
"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014."

It is a striking finding of cross-cultural studies of suicide that many of the places with especially high suicide rates, and many of the cultural subgroups with high suicide rates among groups who live in the same place, are the advantaged rather than the disadvantaged. While people have to struggle to survive, they stay alive to continue the struggle. When people's basic needs are all met, they sometimes doubt the meaningfulness of living.

"Why Suicides Are More Common in Richer Neighborhoods"

http://business.time.com/2012/11/08/why-suicides-are-more-co...

[+] leeny|12 years ago|reply
I guess he never anticipated that "the best minds of [our] generation are thinking about how to make people click ads."[1]

[1] http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/why-this-tech-...

[+] contingencies|12 years ago|reply
Or extracting wealth from the digitally accelerated, cataclysmic, climactic failure of the economic system of yore. Or the legal systems, fairly similarly. Or to global surveillance systems dangling carrots for citizens but storing all of their data: location, human communications, etc. forever.
[+] BecauseWeCan|12 years ago|reply
"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014. The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine."

This bit is spot on.

[+] coldtea|12 years ago|reply
>At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens.

Amazing prediction!

Well, he got the GM part wrong, but indeed, there was a series called "Futurama" and it DID display "vistas of underground cities" (New New York)!

[+] Syros|12 years ago|reply
I think it's important to note here that Asimov was never a big proponent of the "science fiction author as Nostradamus" theory. He was always very clear that neither his nor any other writer's predictions should be given any more credibility than the average Joe off the street.

In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

[+] atgm|12 years ago|reply
> In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

He shifted away from fiction and into non-fiction (textbooks, educational books, and newspaper columns) in the early 60s. This probably falls into the "scientific education" niche in some form.

My understanding is that Asimov did not believe in science fiction as a clear-cut prophecy of the future but did enjoy talking about what effects modern-day science and achievements could have on the future and the society of the future in non-fiction. He very much enjoyed making science -- and knowledge in general -- more accessible to other people.

[+] taitems|12 years ago|reply
Intentional or not, he has certainly predicted technology that has only recently come into existence. They may seem obvious now, but I wonder how inevitable they seemed during the 50s and 60s? Take for instance the Multivac: it is essentially Wolfram Alpha, even down to the pro-tier pricing he mentions in one short story.
[+] GrantS|12 years ago|reply
In fact, the animatronic 1964 GE pavillion show that Asimov is talking about can still be seen today at Disney World. It's called the Carousel of Progress, kind of tucked away behind the Buzz Lightyear ride in tomorrowland and sadly (but understandably) not as popular as it used to be.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walt_Disney's_Carousel_of_Pro...

[+] michaelpinto|12 years ago|reply
I loved this "Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books. Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica (shown in chill splendor as part of the '64 General Motors exhibit)."
[+] jacques_chester|12 years ago|reply
He was right about Antarctica. In 1998 and 2001 my dad did winter missions with the Australian Antarctic Division née ANARE.

Part of his job was keeping the satellite links functional. We got to talk to him on the phone once a week.

On the numbers, he had more bandwidth than I did at the time -- 155kbps. Latency was a bit rough though.

[+] patdennis|12 years ago|reply
>"Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it."

This actually makes me curious. Why don't we have photochromic windows? We use the technology in transition lenses.

[+] otikik|12 years ago|reply
A relatively cheap alternative is taking 2 polarized pieces of glass and making them rotate one on top of the other - that way the amount of light they let through is variable. The main drawback is that it requires circular windows with mechanical rotors.

There is also a patent that allegedly doesn't require rotation, but I have never seen it realized: http://www.google.com/patents/US6414790

[+] transfire|12 years ago|reply
What I don't think Mr. Asimov could have imagined is the rise of the Oligarchs, dominated primarily by the heads of the banking industry, though also by the petrochemical and a few other top-tier industries. These individuals have increasingly distorted the free-market system and corrupted the political systems to satisfy their own narrow ends. They are financial protectionists. And because of them a great deal of innovation that could have been has been stymied. I would argue that if it were not for their depressing effects on society, Mr. Asimov's predictions would now look rather underwhelming by comparison, as we would have achieved far more than he predicted. Alas, given our current state of affairs, I do not think it possible for society to advanced very far beyond were it currently stands. And in a matter of decades we are likely to start moving backwards rather then forwards. On that mark, with his concerns on population growth, I believe Mr. Asimov hit it squarely on the head.
[+] b0rsuk|12 years ago|reply
Why are moving sidewalks so incredibly popular in old SF novels ?!?! The concept is silly. The constant energy use is a showstopper, and even if you assume thorium reactors would handle it, there's material fatigue.

Another early SF prediction which which is baffling today: everything (houses, cars, highways) made of... plastic. Plastic being the material of the future. But perhaps it's not as naive, seeing as early plastic was really durable, some our plastic bowls are still in good shape after 20 years. LEGOs are very durable, too.

Hovercars - ordinary 2D cars are one of most common causes of mortal accidents today. Imagine the chaos with an extra dimension! Hoverbuses - perhaps, but cars ???

But the one that really cracks me up is by Strugatsky brothers: carbonated soured milk (Impossible according to one chemist).

[+] skrause|12 years ago|reply
The future from the 50s and 60s would also be pretty loud. With the recent discussions about the annoyance of leaf blowers, image the noise of a city where each car would have this:

"Jets of compressed air will also lift land vehicles off the highways, which, among other things, will minimize paving problems"

[+] dclowd9901|12 years ago|reply
Fiberglass siding, modular order-and-build houses are made of plastic, and the matter looks pretty damn futuristic and cool.
[+] adamconroy|12 years ago|reply
Very good Isaac. Except the robots are allowed to kill.
[+] polymathist|12 years ago|reply
"...there will be increasing emphasis on transportation that makes the least possible contact with the surface. There will be aircraft, of course, but even ground travel will increasingly take to the air*a foot or two off the ground. Visitors to the 1964 fair can travel there in an "aquafoil," which lifts itself on four stilts and skims over the water with a minimum of friction. This is surely a stop-gap. By 2014 the four stilts will have been replaced by four jets of compressed air so that the vehicle will make no contact with either liquid or solid surfaces."

Sounds a little bit like the hyperloop, no?

[+] purplelobster|12 years ago|reply
The most accurate prediction is to predict that most things will stay the same.
[+] coldtea|12 years ago|reply
>And experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist in 2014. (Even today, a small but genuine fusion explosion is demonstrated at frequent intervals in the G.E. exhibit at the 1964 fair.)

Anybody knows what happened to that G.E fusion thing he mentions?

[+] btbuildem|12 years ago|reply
Pff, Asimov. I don't understand why people hold him in such high esteem, his imagination was flat and lacking.

Want to read some real futurology and prime-cut sci-fi? Check out Stanislaw Lem. (eg. Peace on Earth -- it will blow your mind).

[+] jonahx|12 years ago|reply
I'd be curious to know if anyone has ever written one of these types of predictions, at any period in history predicting another period 50+ years out, and not had a large percentage of big misses.
[+] emerod|12 years ago|reply
<i>All high school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology, will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary "Fortran" (from "formula translation").</i>

We're still working on this one.