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NAND flash has at least another decade of life

34 points| jfruhlinger | 12 years ago |itworld.com

16 comments

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[+] darkchasma|12 years ago|reply
Predicting the future in tech is a fools errand.
[+] a3voices|12 years ago|reply
Ground and air transportation speeds haven't increased since the 60s.
[+] smackfu|12 years ago|reply
>Flash memory isn't going to get any cheaper for another decade

That doesn't seem to be what the article is saying.

[+] bryanlarsen|12 years ago|reply
Exactly.

The article says that the cost of flash will stay at approximately 10x the cost of traditional hard disks. Given that traditional hard disks are expected to decrease in price, the title is not just misleading, it's flat out wrong.

This prediction does mean that it will decrease in price slower than it has in the past, but that's all.

[+] ChuckMcM|12 years ago|reply
Apparently he started with this (its the last thing in the article):

"We had a period where no one was making money from 2011 to this year, so no one invested in capacity. Now demand caught up with capacity. So they are building capacity but that won't be fully ramped until 2015,"

And then added a bunch of other stuff talking about various factors. Everyone has known flash has issues in terms of 'how' it works hasn't changed a whole lot so it has been at the mercy of its minimum feature size. Hard disks keep finding new ways to record and read magnetic domains so they get past various 'limits.' The article implies, but doesn't state, that anticipation of some of these new kinds of flash will slow down the addition of new capacity.