They missed the most important and generally applicable one:
"People who are right a lot of the time are people who often change their minds.
"The smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved. They’re open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking."
In that sense the 'flip flopper' insult from American politics should actually become a mark of distinction. It is as if changing your opinion due to additional insight/input/thinking is a bad thing instead of a good one.
11. "The framework I found, which made the decision [to start Amazon in 1994] incredibly easy, was what I called a regret minimization framework. I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'OK, I'm looking back on my life. I want to minimize the number of regrets I have.' And I knew that when I was 80, I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed, I wouldn't regret that. But I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day."
Woah. I independently came up with something similar. I used to wonder what kind of advice I'd give myself if I could go back in time. At some point, I realised that I could change it around and project myself forward in time instead and imagine what future me would say to me right now. What the advice lost in accuracy it made up for in actionability.
6. "I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two -- because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. ... [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that's going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It's impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, 'Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' [or] 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.' Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it."
I enjoy the irony of getting his wisdom at a site called Fool.com.
Hearing Bezos's regret minimization framework was one of the things that helped to make an easier decision to leave my job to start a company (I left Amazon, ironically). Here is the original video which this quote is taken from:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
This whole 'deathbed' theory has always seemed entirely bunk to me. At 35, my values and thought processes are almost entirely different to what I /thought/ they would be when I was 20, and so any decisions I'd made at 20 to please the 35-year-old 'me' would almost certainly have missed the mark.
The idea that at 35 I can predict what will or won't please my 80-year-old self is preposterous. The best thing I can do for that guy is make sure he has the resources available to do what makes him happy.
I love the sentiment that Bezos expressed through this quote, and I sincerely hope to apply his advice to my career.
Having said that, this long-term way of thinking about happiness and regrets may conflict with human nature. The vast majority of us are incapable of predicting what will - or will not - make us happy:
Bezos is a contender for the best manager of my generation. That being said, don't take these statements as absolute truths. They reflect the very successful strategy at Amazon, but they are by no means absolute.
Examples:
- "(...) keeping our prices very, very low, we earn trust with customers over time, and that that actually does maximize free cash flow over the long term." This is violated by luxury goods. Louis Vuitton purses must be expensive, it's part of their "contract" with their customers.
- "There are two kinds of companies: Those that work to try to charge more and those that work to charge less. We will be the second." The alternative is to deliver ever increasing value, at constant prices, which is the very successful strategy at Volkswagen.
Don't take this as it being my opinion that Bezos is wrong. He's my ideal CEO: long term oriented, customer focused, innovation driven. There are faults at Amazon, but in the grand scheme of things, Amazon is a great feat in itself.
"ever increasing value, at constant prices, which is the very successful strategy at Volkswagen"
That might be strategy for the VW brand, but VW Group very cleverly uses its huge array of brands to segment the market very nicely (SEAT, Skoda, VW, Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, Bugatti).
Very scary and very aggressive. Also, smart (if you can pull off that sort of thing).
> 7. "If you're not stubborn, you'll give up on experiments too soon. And if you're not flexible, you'll pound your head against the wall and you won't see a different solution to a problem you're trying to solve."
Making a note to tell this to my kids.
> 14. "[don't] get addicted to being shiny, because shiny doesn't last."
This one, too, sounds like a good general-purpose life advice.
Because, you know, resilience - if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush, then you'd be pretty depressed right now because the last nugget of gold would be gone. But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget. Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
According to various younger folks I know around here (in the 12 +- 2 years range) most kids just use instagram and whatnot nowadays rather than facebook.
One of my favorite (and a recent one):
People who are right a lot often change their minds. One of the best ways to end a heated debate is to say "Wait a minute.. I think I am wrong!".
I read the URL and after hitting #20 I was like "Where are the other 5?". It took me a while to notice the title of the post said "20" so I assume they created a page with 25 then removed 5 and forgot to update the URL.
7. "If you're not stubborn, you'll give up on experiments too soon. And if you're
not flexible, you'll pound your head against the wall and you won't see a different
solution to a problem you're trying to solve."
"A company shouldn't get addicted to being shiny, because shiny doesn't last."
This may be true of some companies, but we can see that Apple is quite successful at making products which continuously make last year's invention seem outdated. Of course, if making highly polished products takes a huge toll on your resources and impedes your greater strategy, then you may be better off not being "shiny".
I found it very interesting, but this quote stood out in a bad way:
"If you're long-term oriented, customer interests and shareholder interests are aligned."
This statement smelled like bullshit since large successful corporations don't tend to be incredibly ethical. The fast food industry has an interest in making you eat shitty food with a smile: this is not in the customer's interest (i.e. health), but because customer perception is what matters it's a great business decision, even in the long term.
I also noticed I was subconsciously confusing his statement with the claim that shareholder interests and society's interests are aligned. And it's a radically different question indeed, because Bezo's statement completely ignores employees. Yes, there is tremendous pressure to deliver consumer and shareholder value, but there is no pressure to deliver value to the kind of disposable workforce that Amazon needs. We all know what kind of workplace Amazon is.
Sorry if this is all a bit incoherent, but I'm curious about how CEOs of big companies really feel about ethical questions. It can't possibly be all rainbows and candy.
> I also noticed I was subconsciously confusing his statement with the claim that shareholder interests and society's interests are aligned.
I noticed this, too. If you don't pay close attention it seems like he's saying there are not ethical concerns if you think long-term, but the statement is actually narrower than that. In addition to employees, there can also be people with no involvement with or even knowledge of the business who are affected by negative externalities.
Is it a smart choice that the store feels like 1998 web applications? Given the size of their workforce and the amount of revenue they make, why can't they invest some time in making the interface any good?
[+] [-] seunosewa|12 years ago|reply
"The smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved. They’re open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking."
http://37signals.com/svn/posts/3289-some-advice-from-jeff-be...
[+] [-] jacquesm|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chrisgd|12 years ago|reply
Basically the theme of Nate Silver's book as well. Don't stick to your forecast in the face of new information that might contradict your forecast.
[+] [-] mhartl|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nl|12 years ago|reply
I had it taped up above my desk at one point.
[+] [-] joseph_cooney|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nohuck13|12 years ago|reply
Amen.
[+] [-] scanr|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mathattack|12 years ago|reply
I like this one:
6. "I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two -- because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. ... [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that's going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It's impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, 'Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' [or] 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.' Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it."
I enjoy the irony of getting his wisdom at a site called Fool.com.
[+] [-] ledon|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] russgray|12 years ago|reply
The idea that at 35 I can predict what will or won't please my 80-year-old self is preposterous. The best thing I can do for that guy is make sure he has the resources available to do what makes him happy.
[+] [-] hawkharris|12 years ago|reply
Having said that, this long-term way of thinking about happiness and regrets may conflict with human nature. The vast majority of us are incapable of predicting what will - or will not - make us happy:
http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2008/04/22/happiness-pr...
[+] [-] sergiosgc|12 years ago|reply
Examples:
- "(...) keeping our prices very, very low, we earn trust with customers over time, and that that actually does maximize free cash flow over the long term." This is violated by luxury goods. Louis Vuitton purses must be expensive, it's part of their "contract" with their customers.
- "There are two kinds of companies: Those that work to try to charge more and those that work to charge less. We will be the second." The alternative is to deliver ever increasing value, at constant prices, which is the very successful strategy at Volkswagen.
Don't take this as it being my opinion that Bezos is wrong. He's my ideal CEO: long term oriented, customer focused, innovation driven. There are faults at Amazon, but in the grand scheme of things, Amazon is a great feat in itself.
[+] [-] mcv|12 years ago|reply
That's because the actual product you pay for isn't the bag itself, but a symbol of exclusivity.
[+] [-] arethuza|12 years ago|reply
That might be strategy for the VW brand, but VW Group very cleverly uses its huge array of brands to segment the market very nicely (SEAT, Skoda, VW, Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, Bugatti).
[+] [-] smu|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Florin_Andrei|12 years ago|reply
Very scary and very aggressive. Also, smart (if you can pull off that sort of thing).
> 7. "If you're not stubborn, you'll give up on experiments too soon. And if you're not flexible, you'll pound your head against the wall and you won't see a different solution to a problem you're trying to solve."
Making a note to tell this to my kids.
> 14. "[don't] get addicted to being shiny, because shiny doesn't last."
This one, too, sounds like a good general-purpose life advice.
[+] [-] rmason|12 years ago|reply
Because, you know, resilience - if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush, then you'd be pretty depressed right now because the last nugget of gold would be gone. But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget. Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
[+] [-] dredmorbius|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anuragramdasan|12 years ago|reply
Smartness is a gift, kindness is a choice.(paraphrased)
[+] [-] untilHellbanned|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] michalu|12 years ago|reply
This made me think of facebook.
[+] [-] gamegoblin|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jacquesm|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sidjoshi|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] joshstrange|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] GuiA|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jhull|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] harigov|12 years ago|reply
"Good intentions never work, you need good mechanisms to make anything happen"
[+] [-] maxmzd_|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rtpg|12 years ago|reply
"We did studies and we didn't listen to them"
[+] [-] kbutler|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 6ren|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] burgerz|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pazimzadeh|12 years ago|reply
This may be true of some companies, but we can see that Apple is quite successful at making products which continuously make last year's invention seem outdated. Of course, if making highly polished products takes a huge toll on your resources and impedes your greater strategy, then you may be better off not being "shiny".
[+] [-] bizbody|12 years ago|reply
"If you're long-term oriented, customer interests and shareholder interests are aligned."
This statement smelled like bullshit since large successful corporations don't tend to be incredibly ethical. The fast food industry has an interest in making you eat shitty food with a smile: this is not in the customer's interest (i.e. health), but because customer perception is what matters it's a great business decision, even in the long term.
I also noticed I was subconsciously confusing his statement with the claim that shareholder interests and society's interests are aligned. And it's a radically different question indeed, because Bezo's statement completely ignores employees. Yes, there is tremendous pressure to deliver consumer and shareholder value, but there is no pressure to deliver value to the kind of disposable workforce that Amazon needs. We all know what kind of workplace Amazon is.
Sorry if this is all a bit incoherent, but I'm curious about how CEOs of big companies really feel about ethical questions. It can't possibly be all rainbows and candy.
[+] [-] Fishkins|12 years ago|reply
I noticed this, too. If you don't pay close attention it seems like he's saying there are not ethical concerns if you think long-term, but the statement is actually narrower than that. In addition to employees, there can also be people with no involvement with or even knowledge of the business who are affected by negative externalities.
[+] [-] bizbody|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] willvarfar|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hobolobo|12 years ago|reply
"We should set up on a reservation. Taxes are for little people."
Possibly because he might not have worded it like that.
[+] [-] um304|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|12 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] taopao|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dageshi|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] asdasf|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ivanbrussik|12 years ago|reply