It's the old stock scam! Someone needs to create 2048 twitter accounts (AAPL0001, AAPL0002, etc), then make half say "AAPL closes UP today!", the other half say "Down".
Delete the incorrect accounts the next day and repeat for the next 7 days... You'll have one account left at the end, but it'll be exactly right.
One way to put things in perspective is to compare against predictor that always chooses the most frequent label (higher in this case).
dynofuz made 14 predictions, 13 correct (at least they claim so) and their predictor agrees with majority label predictor 10/14 = 71% of the time. The difference is just 3 correct predictions.
correction: 13 predictions, 10/13 = 77% same as majority label predictor.
the 14th prediction is for today. I didnt want to jump the gun and say it was correct. I agree with the majority label issue you brought up. You'll just have to keep an eye on it for when the market begins turning down.
[+] [-] joezydeco|12 years ago|reply
Delete the incorrect accounts the next day and repeat for the next 7 days... You'll have one account left at the end, but it'll be exactly right.
[+] [-] cylinder|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hannibal5|12 years ago|reply
Predicted market correct last 5 days in row https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6535057
[+] [-] hannibal5|12 years ago|reply
dynofuz made 14 predictions, 13 correct (at least they claim so) and their predictor agrees with majority label predictor 10/14 = 71% of the time. The difference is just 3 correct predictions.
correction: 13 predictions, 10/13 = 77% same as majority label predictor.
[+] [-] dynofuz|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jeanjq|12 years ago|reply
(1/2)^13 = 1/8192