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man_bear_pig | 12 years ago

In 2013, there was this company that snapped pictures and took a comment. user engagement was through the roof among an unknown number of 15-23 year olds. Hundreds of millions of photos uploaded every 24 hours ("more than facebook!" they would shout) instead of the ipo bubble of the 90s there was a bubble bidding war among the startups that themselves barely made any money but nevertheless, managed to raised billions of dollars... this app is a 3bn dollar app! nope tomorrow it'll be worth 4. why? because we know that next month it'll be worth 10bn!!! based on my perpetual growth method valuation that my 21 year old intern who previously interned at GS in sanitary engineering division last summer created, this app should overtake FB and Twitter! the ceo who just stole the idea and fkd over his own friend replied, "woah. let’s take a step back fellas. we're worth way more than that! we have potential to save privacy. what's the price tag on that? gazillion at the minimum. Maybe kakakakazillion?... we created an industry that didn't exist 12 months ago. ephemeral communication!"

From wall street to silicon valley to local teen bloggers, people were #obsessed #addicted to this app. then with a single snap, #crash happened. but nobody remembers what really happened because all the memories were on that app... with the exception of one man and his servers. that's when the next bubble started. selling terabytes of worthless BIG DATA crunched by NASA scientists. #gg.

Almost all bubbles last longer than most people realize. that's because the people who inevitably show their hands and forced to pop it are also the ones who want to continue to ride the bubbles (misalignment of incentives due to selfish greed vs. institutional capital). lemming investors who get in late need to keep marking up their books and re-setting valuation occurs higher and higher every quarter. however, only when exits do not happen, when growth does not occur, when monetization plans do not become realized do the general public's sentiment shift and liquidity stop flowing and then… bids stop coming. and that my friends can take a mighty long time. some of the smartest people who shorted the first dot come bubble went belly up. that is because most people are lemmings, mere momentum driven followers in everything they do and the rest in the middle just want to get out of the rush hour freight train heading toward the apex of Mt. Neverneverland.

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