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weichi | 12 years ago

"If a 30 year old puts a days wages into an account and can expect a days wages out when he's 80 years old then he can drastically simplify his retirement."

Your idea here seems to be that bitcoin could help you not only hedge against "inflation", but also against rising economic productivity. I.e., what a saver really wants is some kind of guarantee that at age 80 they will be able to consume the same fraction of economic output that they were able to at age 30. Could you spell out how bitcoin helps solve this problem?

(I take it for granted that hedging purely against inflation is actually a solved problem, because you can just invest in short term bonds, which provide excellent hedges against inflation. But of course they don't help at all with rising productivity).

Edit: Another - massive! - issue with retirement savings is longevity risk. How can you ensure that you won't run out of savings before you die? Bitcoin won't help you here.

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3pt14159|12 years ago

Bitcoin solves that problem by being finite. Since scientific advances are cumulative and directly impact worker productivity, it is reasonable to assume that a stable currency that does not inflate will at least preserve purchasing power.

Investing in short term bonds is not only not riskless (lots of governments and corporations have either defaulted or written down their debt), but often times do not even match inflation.

Saving as a logevity risk: Yes. You don't know how long you will live, we could very well develop medicine that would keep me as a functioning senior until I'm 100 years old. But against all other alternative forms of saving, if bitcoin was a world-currency it would be the safest way to assure purchasing power.

foobarqux|12 years ago

One way money becomes less valuable is because demand for goods and services increases. So there can be Bitcoin inflation without an increase in the BTC supply.

fat0wl|12 years ago

how the f is it reasonable to assume that it will preserve purchasing power, based on the assumption that it will be stable?

I can set up a chain of assumptions about the dollar based on actual historical precedence & Bitcoiners will whine & whine but because Bitcoin is "so pure" or something you think it's safe to chain a set of dependent assumptions together & say "This is how its goin down"?

noselasd|12 years ago

How big a problem is it that bitcoins are finite ? The minimum unit of a bitcoin today is a satoshi, there can ever be max about 2200000000000000 satoshi. Is 2200000000000000 units of currency going to be enough to run a global economy ?