[eugmill]

I think you are discussing different interpretations of probability (classical vs bayesian), which is causing the disconnect.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations

[baddox]

That's not really the problem. I believe I was able to explain the correct response using classical probability: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7001288. This is no more complex than asking what the odds are of being dealt a full house in poker. You can enumerate all equally likely outcomes and simply count them.