I am going to a group discussion tomorrow about first-refusal rights in the NFL and happened to do a brief naive analysis of extra point vs 2 point conversions earlier today. In brief, the EV of a 2 point conversion was .91 while an extra point was .99. That said, for every 19 extra point attempts there was only one two point conversion attempt. Frankly, I am all for variance so I am rooting for the more ambitious two-point attempt.
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