[Daniel_Newby]

What, exactly, is terrifying? The FBI did an excellent job of making connections between suspicious facts, the sort of connections that should have been made to prevent the 9-11 attacks.

It is absurd to claim that this should not have happened. All detection methods have a false positive rate. Judging by what has shown up in the media, the FBI has a counterterrorism false positive rate of one person every few years. That is a stupendously low rate for such a rare yet politically-charged task.

Let's not forget their other famous false positive terrorism case: the anthrax case. Their needle in a haystack search turned up a false positive, but it also turned up the true positive.

The only terrifying thing here is that they suspected him of being a serial mass murderer, and then proceeded to apply such poor spycraft that a false positive was spooked. There are going to have a hard time catching real baddies being that sloppy.

[jpatokal]

This is the part I find terrifying:

The only reason Mayfield is a free man today is that the Spanish police repeatedly told the FBI that the print recovered from the bag of detonators didn’t match Mayfield’s fingerprints. The FBI, however, continued to stand by its lab’s findings until Spanish authorities conclusively matched the print to the real culprit, Algerian national Ouhane Daoud.

That "only" is not rhetorical -- the guy would probably be entombed in a supermax or frying in the electric chair if he had been flagged for a terrorism case in the US, in which case the FBI would have had sole jurisdiction and there would have been nobody with the power to say that a) you guys are mistaken and b) we've nabbed the actual culprit.

[gaius]

This sort of stuff is deeply worrying because it means that law enforcement are perfectly happy for the actual perpetrator to go free, so long as they tick their boxes. It would be like doctors prescribing the nearest drug to hand without bothering to find out what was wrong with the patient. A restaurant that took your order then brought you whatever was easiest to cook would go out of business in a day!

[rtpg]

It is rhetorical, because in front a judge, you would have to have actual evidence.

Of course the burden of proof for investigating someone's behavior is lower than to get a conviction: if it wasn't, why would there be investigations? I don't want to defend the FBI's idiotic handling of this (namely ignoring all the evidence against the theory), but acting like the FBI has sole discretion to throw someone into prison with so much evidence against their theory is very bizarre.

The only reason he might not be a free man would be that the court system can be very slow.

[Daniel_Newby]

Stop regurgutating that idiotic political spew. Start thinking for yourself or shut the fuck up.

The FBI has no jurisdiction. Courts have jurisdiction.

A single partial fingerprint would have been laughed out of the prosecutor's office. If the prosecutor was idiotic or careless, the judge would have thrown it out. If by some reverse miracle the judge had believed it, the jury, defense lawyer, and expert witnesses would have stopped it.

There are dozens of layers of reviews and protections, not the ignorant "FBI has sole jurisdiction" theory you are spouting.

Honestly, have you never in you life watched a single episode of a police procedural TV show? Even an episode of Cops?

There is also the matter of the DNA that goes along with every fingerprint, which would have definitively exonerated the suspect.

The FBI was simply doing their job: vacuum up as much information as possible and look for patterns. Their only legal obligation to the suspect is to get search warrants before searching and not torture him. Period. Cops incriminate, the rest of the system sorts it out.

You want an investigator that analyzes the value of evidence and lays criminal charges too, you convene a grand jury. But not the FBI, not cops of any kind.

[girvo]

Huh? The facts of his life were suspicious? Seemed like bullshit confirmation bias to me, coupled with ignoring Spain telling them they had the wrong man, over and over again. None of this is okay, and he should've received compensation for the ordeal.

Is it because he converted to Islam? That covers 1.25 billion people. In fact, the fact he did army service (yes I know there was the Fort Hood shooter, but for the most part people who do voluntary military service aren't your best bet for finding a terrorist, least of all one to bomb Spain of all places...), he had no valid passport (travelling under a fake ID In the western world is far harder than other places), etcetera. They ignored anything that would push them in the direction of "Oh he's not a terrorist". That's not very good, and that's horrifying as that could literally happen to any of us by nothing more than some bad luck.

And yeah, I agree with you on the spycraft thing. Those agents should be removed from field work if they're that terrible :/

[mgkimsal]

They ignored anything that would push them in the direction of "Oh he's not a terrorist".

==================

It seems in some cases they didn't just ignore it, they made up stuff to make it look worse. The "false identity" thing is just insane.

Agent 1: "Hrmm.... there's absolutely 0 evidence that he travelled internationally. That must mean that he's an ubercriminal who has the ability to travel undocumentedly - he's even more powerful and criminal than we thought! This has to be our guy! Anyone who can travel internationally without leaving any trace of it is that much more dangerous!"

Agent 2: "Well, he may just not have travelled at all, and this might not be the bomber."

Agent 1 (speaking in to sleeve): "HQ, we've got a 827 in progress - please proceed with plan XPJ - repeat, 827 in progress, request immediate XPJ."

[Daniel_Newby]

> That's not very good, and that's horrifying as that could literally happen to any of us by nothing more than some bad luck.

Try reading my comment again, you fucking dumbass. EVERY DETECTION METHOD HAS A FALSE POSITIVE RATE, AND THE FBI'S FOR COUNTERTERRORISM APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 0.5 PER YEAR.

It could not "literally happen to any of us with a little bad luck". You are several orders of magnitude more likely to be struck by lightning. More people have won $100,000,000 in a lottery than have been held in non-criminal custody by the FBI due to investigation mistakes.

That's an error rate so low it would make jetliner engineers faint with envy. (You are orders of magnitude more likely to be killed by such an engineer than inconvenienced for a few days by the FBI.)

[betterunix]

"What, exactly, is terrifying?"

This:

"Because the FBI agents had no concrete evidence that Mayfield was linked to the Madrid train bombings, they decided not to apply for a criminal wiretap...Rather, they applied for a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant..."

This:

"They couldn’t arrest him because their intrusive surveillance still could not find any evidence of any crime. He spent two weeks in jail..."

This:

"The FBI’s belief that it had their man, despite all contrary evidence, was so strong that it provided misleading sworn statements to a judge."

Perhaps the most terrifying aspect of all, though, is that the fact that this lawyer represented a terrorist was considered to be evidence that he himself was a terrorist. Let that sink in for a minute. An accused terrorist hired a lawyer for a child custody case, and the FBI concluded that the lawyer has a connection to a terrorist organization. Replace "lawyer" with "plumber" and "child custody case" with "leaky faucet" if you do not understand the problem.

[dantheman]

In the US you have rights, and being denied your freedom requires a high bar evidence. They clearly did not have it.

Living in a free society requires a certain toleration of risk. That means letting suspicious people go, even if they 1 in 100 might be guilty. We don't lock up the other 99 just in case. In fact, we do the opposite as expressed in Blackstone's formulation: "It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer"[1]

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackstone's_formulation

[SideburnsOfDoom]

> The FBI did an excellent job of making connections between suspicious facts,

Define "excellent" here?

If you mean "the search returned a result" then great, it was technically excellent that they found a best match.

If you mean that the best result was actually relevant and useful, then nope. And they harmed a person and his whole family because of it.

[Daniel_Newby]

Excellent means that they went from a tiny sliver of evidence to someone who raised pretty much every red flag there is.

And the excellent response was ... investigate harder. They did not drag him into a jail and torture a confession out of him, Japanese style. They did not torture him and his wife for anything they could get, Russian style. They did not disappear his entire family and business partners, Columbian style.

While waiting for the next few hundred people to be blown up, they ... investigated quietly. When the whole thing fell apart, they sent in a team of trained assassins to, well, actually there were no assassins or torture chambers, just a couple weeks in Club Fed as a material wotness. You know, like all the other witnesses locked up for a few days when they are trying to sort out who is the deranged killer and who can be safely released.

[DanBC]

> It is absurd to claim that this should not have happened. All detection methods have a false positive rate

Getting a partial match is a false positive. Using that partial match to investigate the 20 people who have a partial march is the consequence of that false positive.

To then say that he travelled as a terrorist u der a fake passport because they doscovered that his passport had lapsed and that he hadnot travelled abroad - that should not have happened and I do not feel absurd for saying that.

Surveilling someone so poorly that they know you're following them, and using their awareness of being surveilled as evidence of their guilt should not have happened.

Locking him up for 2 weeks should not have happened.

[Daniel_Newby]

The article claims they deduced he was an international spy. But the article is a political hatchet job. It is entirely likely that "we put a lot of effort into investigating how he could have traveled" was ninja translated to "we knew he was flying under false papers".

His awareness was not used as evidence of guilt, silly. Not even that idiotic article said that. It was used as evidence that he was a flight risk.

[mschuster91]

> The only terrifying thing here is that they suspected him of being a serial mass murderer, and then proceeded to apply such poor spycraft that a false positive was spooked. There are going to have a hard time catching real baddies being that sloppy.

And this is why truly independent oversight of any and all police/justice/secret service-activity is required.

[Daniel_Newby]

Indeed. That's why he was also protected by the FBI internal reviews that freed him, the prosecutors who know just how silly a bad fingerprint match will look in court, the compulsory defense lawyer and defense investigation budget, the judge with whom the admissibility of evidence is negotiated before trial, the trial judge, the more or less fairly selected jurors, the observers and free press in the trial courtroom, the appellate.

Please, please, stop wallowing in this idiotic paranoia or persecution fantasy or whatever it is. This guy looked suspicious as hell during a period of raving government paranoia, in a case involving a public safety emergency, and got interviewed for two weeks.

Yes, that is scary and obnoxious for him, but what more do you want? Investigate mad bombers slowly, carefully, like a stolen car case? Invest $500 billion to raise the false positive rate to one in 10 billion?