Despite what everybody likes to think, politicians aren't idiots.
When somebody disagrees with me, I like to assume that they're not idiots and that the disagreement might be based on some legitimate point that I've missed.
The truth is that Bitcoin is an existential threat to the United States government. As long as it's some third tier crypto currency only used by nerds on the Internet, it doesn't matter. But the infrastructure is being laid to push it as a (the) new global currency.
If that happens, we will witness an economic revolution with no parallel in history. It will literally be raining cats and dogs in the street.
Practically overnight, the US will lose the ability to borrow in its own currency, forcing a quick tightening of monetary policy, further exacerbated by foreign governments dumping their dollar reserves. The dollar <-> XX exchange rate would approach zero. Anyone holding dollars would no longer be able to afford any foreign goods. Dollar inflation would be rampant. A recession or depression would quickly follow.
Anyone not holding bitcoin will become the new underclass, and the new rich will be those who got in early. Essentially, the new world order will basically be made up of lottery winners.
Pensions would become practically worthless, as they would need to be converted to the new currency to be spent.
Etc, etc.
That's why I don't have any money in bitcoin. It can't succeed. The current world order won't let it.
There are a lot of bold comments that you're making here.
Pensions would become practically worthless, as they would need to be converted to the new currency to be spent.
If pensions hold real assets (land, companies, etc) the currency of the realm doesn't matter much, whether it's dollars, euros or bitcoins. Most pensions aren't just sitting on cash.
Anyone not holding bitcoin will become the new underclass, and the new rich will be those who got in early
Again, real asset holders don't care about the coin of the realm. If you own a company, you can sell it to buyers in whatever currency you want. Net lenders may be harmed, because they could get paid back in less valuable dollars. Net borrowers may be helped, because they can pay their debts in less valuable dollars.
It will literally be raining cats and dogs in the street.
Literally?
I find a lot to disagree with your points and hyperbole. The irony is I am fully in agreement with your last point. It can't succeed. The current world order won't let it.
We live in a country where a Governor will ban large soda's for our protection.
Every bag comes with a warning "not a toy".
Houses come with disclaimers not to eat the paint chips.
Raw Milk (which I wouldn't touch) is illegal for public safety.
By all counts, Bitcoin is scarier than any of these things. If not banned it should have warnings. We don't have a good way to put warnings on it so we ban it. Right wrong or indifferent that is what America does. Manchin is just making sure he gets credit for an idea that was sure to come up.
I see it the other way. From the comfort of my home computer I can speculate on the value of U.S. corporations, the future value of U.S. corporations, the value of shiny yellow metal, the exchange rate between the dollar and the turkish lira, the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro 12 months from now, the price of cattle, the price of corn, the interest rate on 30 year treasury bonds 6 months from now. The list goes on and on. I can do all of that legally. We have all the necessary legal and regulatory framework to support it. So to say, "yes you can make risky speculative bets on the price of gold but not on the price of bitcoin" doesn't really make sense to me as an American.
Why is the US like this? (I'm from the US). Was it caused by lawyers? Liability laws that allow crazy lawsuits? How can this be avoided in other up-and-coming countries? (I fear it's too late for the US to change course on this). Or is it just an inevitable result of being a rich country founded by lawyers?
As someone genuinely curious (and without a lot of international experience), I was wondering what countries are out there that you feel are better at not over-litigating on those things.
Aren't you guys getting tired of all the annoying buzz around Bitcoin already? Do something good for this world and create something of essence, not yet another vehicle for speculators and ugly (personality) people like Barry Silbert and the Winklevii. When I look at those two (three?) alone, I see "greed" and "envy" in all caps! Fred Wilson really lost all my respect after I saw him during the hearing - he's a small little person! He and Paul Graham are like night and day!
It's beyond obvious that 2013 will be the year of Bitcoin growth and 2014 - the year of its demise. I have to agree that the technology has some decent niche applications, but world-changing it is not.
Congrats on the open letter. Have you also tried emailing, or writing a real letter? I have gotten a few personal responses from well reasoned emails I have sent, including one after seeing my senator publicly change his position in my favor. They really do listen.
An open letter is mostly just going to get other people on the internets to agree with you.
Oh, and if you are going to fight for less regulation you might want to wait for the only BTC news story in the popular media to blow over.
Coinbase isn't an exchange. It's a dealer. Coinbase is the counterparty to every trade and they have no obligation to quote you a good price. There isn't an order book or anything like that. Amazing how many people don't get this.
[+] [-] jeremyt|12 years ago|reply
When somebody disagrees with me, I like to assume that they're not idiots and that the disagreement might be based on some legitimate point that I've missed.
The truth is that Bitcoin is an existential threat to the United States government. As long as it's some third tier crypto currency only used by nerds on the Internet, it doesn't matter. But the infrastructure is being laid to push it as a (the) new global currency.
If that happens, we will witness an economic revolution with no parallel in history. It will literally be raining cats and dogs in the street.
Practically overnight, the US will lose the ability to borrow in its own currency, forcing a quick tightening of monetary policy, further exacerbated by foreign governments dumping their dollar reserves. The dollar <-> XX exchange rate would approach zero. Anyone holding dollars would no longer be able to afford any foreign goods. Dollar inflation would be rampant. A recession or depression would quickly follow.
Anyone not holding bitcoin will become the new underclass, and the new rich will be those who got in early. Essentially, the new world order will basically be made up of lottery winners.
Pensions would become practically worthless, as they would need to be converted to the new currency to be spent.
Etc, etc.
That's why I don't have any money in bitcoin. It can't succeed. The current world order won't let it.
[+] [-] mathattack|12 years ago|reply
Pensions would become practically worthless, as they would need to be converted to the new currency to be spent.
If pensions hold real assets (land, companies, etc) the currency of the realm doesn't matter much, whether it's dollars, euros or bitcoins. Most pensions aren't just sitting on cash.
Anyone not holding bitcoin will become the new underclass, and the new rich will be those who got in early
Again, real asset holders don't care about the coin of the realm. If you own a company, you can sell it to buyers in whatever currency you want. Net lenders may be harmed, because they could get paid back in less valuable dollars. Net borrowers may be helped, because they can pay their debts in less valuable dollars.
It will literally be raining cats and dogs in the street.
Literally?
I find a lot to disagree with your points and hyperbole. The irony is I am fully in agreement with your last point. It can't succeed. The current world order won't let it.
[+] [-] webkike|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] drakaal|12 years ago|reply
We live in a country where a Governor will ban large soda's for our protection.
Every bag comes with a warning "not a toy".
Houses come with disclaimers not to eat the paint chips.
Raw Milk (which I wouldn't touch) is illegal for public safety.
By all counts, Bitcoin is scarier than any of these things. If not banned it should have warnings. We don't have a good way to put warnings on it so we ban it. Right wrong or indifferent that is what America does. Manchin is just making sure he gets credit for an idea that was sure to come up.
[+] [-] minimax|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] clamprecht|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DanAndersen|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kolev|12 years ago|reply
It's beyond obvious that 2013 will be the year of Bitcoin growth and 2014 - the year of its demise. I have to agree that the technology has some decent niche applications, but world-changing it is not.
[+] [-] chrisBob|12 years ago|reply
Oh, and if you are going to fight for less regulation you might want to wait for the only BTC news story in the popular media to blow over.
[+] [-] fredwilson|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] andrewfong|12 years ago|reply
Is Coinbase not considered a major Bitcoin exchange?
[+] [-] minimax|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kordless|12 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Realskeptic|12 years ago|reply