[adamlj]

This could turn ugly really fast. If Russia attacks Ukraine the US and Britain would have to protect the borders of Ukraine, according to a treaty signed in 1994 [0].

If the US don't follow the treaty I guess we will know how much these treatys really are worth.

[0] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-Briti...

[smsm42]

They won't. What you expect, US going to war with a nuclear power over some territory in some third-rate country? The maximum you can expect is a couple of Obama speeches and Kerry promising an unbelievably small diplomatic effort to solve it.

So yes, all those treaties are worth something only when everybody wants to follow them, and they stop being worth paper on which they are printed as soon as one of the participants decides to break them. That's how it always worked.

[foobarqux]

It's not just "some territory": Russian natural gas --- one of the principle sources of Russian influence in Europe --- goes through Ukrainian pipelines.

[vonmoltke]

And nothing in the Budapest Memorandum requires or even permits a signatory to defend Ukraine against another signatory or anyone else. Obviously the Ukrainian government would ask for help in such a case, but there is no current treaty obligation to provide it.

Complicating this is that Russia claims Yanukovich is still the legitimate leader of Ukraine and that their actions thus far have his blessing, meaning their troops are not attacking Ukraine but supporting it against an armed insurrection. Nobody outside Russia's circle of friends believes that, of course, but its the fig leaf they are using.

[voidlogic]

Thats not was a prominent British diplomat says:

Sir Anthony Brenton (UK Ambassador to Russia 04-08): "If indeed this is a Russian invasion of Crimea and if we do conclude the [Budapest] Memorandum is legally binding then it’s very difficult to avoid the conclusion that we’re going to go to war with Russia."

[bananas]

Is there another source other than the daily mail i.e. one with an ounce of credibility?

[noir_lord]

Good on you for not trusting the Daily Mail, it's not even a rag at this point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security...

[lambda]

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Securit...

[philwelch]

Um, no treaty is worth starting World War III over.

[pmorici]

I doubt Americans would stand for a US intervention in Ukraine after all the crap the country has been dragged through with Iraq and Afghanistan.

[jdimov]

I doubt anyone gives a shit about what Americans stand for.