TLDR: Players are more likely to pick the move that just won.
To exploit that, the best strategy would probably be to always pick the move that wasn't played. Should give you an edge until your opponent notices your pattern :)
My wife and I play RPS to determine who does things like change a diaper when we're out and about and stuff. We tie a lot. Far, far more than chance would dictate. We can tie for 10 in a row, quite easily, and before you jump up about how this can happen by chance, we tie in sequences a lot, not just 1/3^10 times. We're trying to second guess each other.
Since humans are bad at random, "just play randomly" doesn't really work; humans don't have access to "random" to play that way. So you often do get into the sorts of strategies you mention, to compensate for this.
I played for years with a close friend in high school to decide who was driving or whatever, or just pass time. The better we knew each other (ie the longer we were playing) the more ties.
I believe there's a natural intuition for reading the expected movements of the other player, and have seen this reproduced (if anecdotally by only testing between myself and her, and not recording results) hundreds of times. Like you, 10-12 streaks of ties were not uncommon, certainly less common than statistics would seem to dictate.
But now everyone starts picking the move that wasn't played. I am not saying I am very good at this game (well who can claim that...), but I mostly win well by observing opponent's reaction and their habit. I try to exploit them by giving them some false sense of my next move. Too abstract? Random pattern. And honestly, the best strategy is don't get frustrated and enjoy the game :)
jerf|12 years ago
Since humans are bad at random, "just play randomly" doesn't really work; humans don't have access to "random" to play that way. So you often do get into the sorts of strategies you mention, to compensate for this.
Besides, it's more fun this way.
bradleysmith|12 years ago
I believe there's a natural intuition for reading the expected movements of the other player, and have seen this reproduced (if anecdotally by only testing between myself and her, and not recording results) hundreds of times. Like you, 10-12 streaks of ties were not uncommon, certainly less common than statistics would seem to dictate.
somewhat relevant, there's a competitive league: http://www.usarps.com/
I always wanted to see it in vegas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htX4T20t6lU
EDIT: clarity
yeukhon|12 years ago