I love watching extreme outliers in play - its one of the main reasons I watch. Guys like Messi, Jordan, Ali are so high above the standard (and often so different) that they elevate the whole sport just by taking part.
The cricket player Donald Bradman [1] is the outlier among outliers. Even compared to greats like Michael Jordan, the statistical significance of his achievements almost defy belief.
I've always wondered about what it is that kicks someone up from great to "how is that even possible?". For example Mozart being asked to remove a ring because his playing was so good an audience thought the ring was a talisman. It's one thing to be so good people think you cheat. It's another level when people think you are magic.
Clearly opportunity, talent, and work play their parts, but there have been many people that have all three and don't turn out a Gauss, or a Newton, or a Pele.
We have the rare opportunity of watching two top 10 forwards of all time at their prime at the same damn time. One of those sport rivalries to tell your grandchildren about.
The most amazing part about them is their ability to adapt with age.
The Michael Jordan of his first 3 years in the NBA was about attacking the basket with an insanely fast first step. The Michael Jordan of his second trio of championships didn't have that level of quickness or burst anymore, but he developed a post game along with a fadeaway jump shot that was virtually impossible to guard. The man had a 20+ point per game average after returning from retirement for the second time at age 40. I don't think the average person understands how quick and athletic NBA players are. A 40 year old man being able to play that game at that high a level with a terrible team around him for 82 games a season is insane.
I wonder if these kind of stats are available for players of past eras. I would be fascinating to see what Pelé or Maradona would look like compared to Messi !
It is true, though, that you only really become a football legend when you win the World Cup (or show some insane talent at the World Cup). Pelé, Maradona, Zidane, Ronaldo et al. all won world cups. And Pelé is considered the greatest of all time precisely because he won 3 world cups out of the 4 he participated in.
Another player to add to this list is the hockey player Pavel Datsyuk. IMHO he is the most underrated player of this generation, although a perennial all-star and stanley cup champion. The way he handles the puck and dekes people out is unreal. . . He is unique on this list as he is not a dominant superstar, but he is an unstoppable outlier.
It's the same in tennis... Rafa and Federer have both been titans, in a class of their own, for years, but sport generally is just getting more and more professional, competitive and extreme as we hone our ability to analyse performance.
Another outlier: Sébastien Loeb (paired with Daniel Elena) has been in a league above every one in rally. His abilities extend way beyond rally: you could throw him anything with four wheels and he'll pull something great out of it (see his team's 2nd place at Le Mans in 2006)
The unfathomable thing is that in France, basically no one cares about his (and others) success, while everyone raves about the national men's† football team.
† women's team apparently performs significantly better on the same period but it's a blackout too. I know why I'm not into football, the whole thing is pervasively biased in so many ways...
Usain Bolt is an example of this. I remember being totally shocked when he ran the 100m in 9.59 [1]. Check out this awesome graph from the "Men's 100 m progression" wikipedia page.
Here's a thorough analysis that argues that Dennis Rodman was not just the best rebounder of all time, but that he dominated his position more than any other basketball player dominated theirs.
Messi is a great example of what can happen if you run through the fouls instead of intentionally falling down. Of course, not many people have his ball skills and I bet his low center of gravity helps him stay upright.
On the other hand, it's a great example of why guys do flop -- refs are too bad to call things as they should.
Personally I think that if you grab another player's clothing or impede him with your arms or hands while he has possession, it should be an instant red card.
hmm... It is widely known that players are now must more protected by rules than 5 years ago. The fouls on Messis would be considered too gentle for Ronaldo (not C. Ronaldo)...
It strikes me as odd that half the graphs do not have clearly labeled axes. I'd expect all of them to be labeled or none of them -- but some of them? The first one struck me as odd especially since the scales are roughly the same.
"Ronaldo" is one of the things that confuses me, as an occasional spectator, the most. In every generation there seems to be a person called "Ronaldo". Most of them played for Brasil, but the most recent one is a portuguese player. For me it's difficult to get who people are talking about when they mention "Ronaldo".
As the primary striker for such a juggernaut, it can be hard to detangle Messi's goal-scoring prowess from Barcelona's general offensive dominance. (...) I think this criticism is fair -- and I found it intriguing enough to look into the matter myself.
(...)
By now I've studied nearly every aspect of Messi's game, down to a touch-by-touch level: his shooting and scoring production; where he shoots from; how often he sets up his own shots; what kind of kicks he uses to make those shots; his ability to take on defenders; how accurate his passes are; the kind of passes he makes; how often he creates scoring chances; how often those chances lead to goals; even how his defensive playmaking compares to other high-volume shooters.
Yet none of that really addresses the main potential confounder the author acknowledges: most measurable aspects of a player's game --not only (assisted) goals but also even touch-by-touch, more seemingly 'individual' skill measures such as passing success-- are arguably heavily conditioned on the ability of the rest of the team. (Today, for instance, Messi didn't score against Switzerland, and the team was goalless for 117 mins until a tepid 1-0 in extra time (edit: but assisted by Messi! my apologies)... go figure).
A 'matched' design would have been much more appropriate, but I realize it's hard to do sound data analysis on a journalist's deadline.
I found this curious as well. Hockey has by far the most rudimentary statistics out of the 4 major North American sports plus Soccer and yet even the hockey stats community has the ability to show how well a team does with a given player on the ice vs. without.
Excellent point, but would you care to explain how you would match subjects in this case? They should be comparable pre-something, but what would that something be?
I think around 80% it is due to a lifetime of hard work in a perfect environment (FC Barcelona's Academy) surrounded by the best people in the game. The other 20% may come from his psychological abilities, being able to reach very high levels of concentration at peak moments. Notice that he is not a very active and working player throughout the whole match, instead he shines through certain moments.
The interesting thing watching him play is that you attribute most of his game play to speed and balance due to his low center of gravity. I never thought he was that accurate because his motion when shooting doesn't seem very elegant.
In addition to the other reasons mentioned, I'd add that having a team of superstars built around you will help your stats no matter who you are. When your team has most of the possession and is consistently breaking down defenses, your stats will be high.
I found this article to be quite interesting, even though I do not follow soccer/football (fútbol?). I find this sort of data analytic to be fascinating. It almost seems like art, what data sets to pull from, how to compare it, etc. How would one, other than brushing up on statistics, get into this sort of field? It seems much more interesting than basic web development.
This is the most dataful soccer analysis that I have ever seen. In US sports (NBA, NFL, MLB), stats are very much used and audience are well aware of them but in soccer (I follow closely premier league, la liga), no such data exist or at least it did not seem so.
Of course, one reason soccer is less dataful is the amount of luck involved in the game. So much underdog achievement is happening which is probably why the game is very much liked (there was a great link that I cannot find which shows the weight of luck of per sport (soccer is being close to the top))
Last comment about the study, given time, they could have considered defense aspect
Maradona and Messi are two different kind of players from two different eras. Maradona is a mid fielder who can control the game from the centre, whereas Messi is forward who excels in striking and last minute opportunity creation. Perhaps greatness of Maradona may be compared to Zidane. It will not be fair to judge a midfielder on the number of goals scored - midfielder is a strategist - which Maradona was.
Timely since the Switzerland game just happened and Messi only got an assist. The Swiss goaltender was impressive, especially compared to the Argenine goalie who made a few bad fumbles that could have been goals with slightly different luck.
A deluge of data but little insight. What am I supposed to take away from this article besides the well-known fact that Messi is one of the best soccer players in the world?
Sometimes it can be hard for non-fans to realize just how good a superstar is. When I was 10 or 11 in the early 90s, I had heard of Micheal Jordan -- everyone had heard of Michael Jordan -- but I wasn't much of a basketball fan. My older brother joined a fantasy basketball league, and since I was the computer guy in the family he asked me to make a spreadsheet designed to help with the draft. We put in all the stats from the prior year and calculated how many fantasy points each player would have gotten. It was only when I sorted the chart and saw how much of an outlier MJ was I realized why he was such a big deal.
The data and the analysis are excellent but I don't think people should rely completely on data to make the analysis as sometimes the data can be misleading.
Tbh, it's great goal but hardly an outlier. There have been many as good already this World Cup. Nor is it the type of goal that you only see from Messi.
[+] [-] devindotcom|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] psychometry|11 years ago|reply
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Bradman
[+] [-] te_platt|11 years ago|reply
Clearly opportunity, talent, and work play their parts, but there have been many people that have all three and don't turn out a Gauss, or a Newton, or a Pele.
[+] [-] rjtavares|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MisterBastahrd|11 years ago|reply
The Michael Jordan of his first 3 years in the NBA was about attacking the basket with an insanely fast first step. The Michael Jordan of his second trio of championships didn't have that level of quickness or burst anymore, but he developed a post game along with a fadeaway jump shot that was virtually impossible to guard. The man had a 20+ point per game average after returning from retirement for the second time at age 40. I don't think the average person understands how quick and athletic NBA players are. A 40 year old man being able to play that game at that high a level with a terrible team around him for 82 games a season is insane.
[+] [-] Jacqued|11 years ago|reply
It is true, though, that you only really become a football legend when you win the World Cup (or show some insane talent at the World Cup). Pelé, Maradona, Zidane, Ronaldo et al. all won world cups. And Pelé is considered the greatest of all time precisely because he won 3 world cups out of the 4 he participated in.
[+] [-] rickdale|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nly|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lloeki|11 years ago|reply
The unfathomable thing is that in France, basically no one cares about his (and others) success, while everyone raves about the national men's† football team.
† women's team apparently performs significantly better on the same period but it's a blackout too. I know why I'm not into football, the whole thing is pervasively biased in so many ways...
[+] [-] bglazer|11 years ago|reply
[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nbjhpcZ9_g [2]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/62/World_rec...
[+] [-] abstairly|11 years ago|reply
People throw their arms up and say "How the hell can a CEO pay themselves 1000 times what the lowest paid staff gets paid"
But that CEO may be a "Messi".
Some people really are 1,000x more productive/as talented as the average person. And so should be compensated accordingly.
[+] [-] caligulatte|11 years ago|reply
http://skepticalsports.com/?p=112
[+] [-] pyotrgalois|11 years ago|reply
A really beautiful description of how Messi plays. I almost cried the first time I watched it.
[+] [-] greg5green|11 years ago|reply
On the other hand, it's a great example of why guys do flop -- refs are too bad to call things as they should.
[+] [-] camperman|11 years ago|reply
Personally I think that if you grab another player's clothing or impede him with your arms or hands while he has possession, it should be an instant red card.
[+] [-] justicezyx|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] apaprocki|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mAritz|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|11 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] yen223|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] swah|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] talles|11 years ago|reply
edit: Whoa, why the downvote? I'm justing pointing it out that is impossible to talk about Messi without talking about CR7 (and vice-versa).
[+] [-] omnibrain|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gone35|11 years ago|reply
(...)
By now I've studied nearly every aspect of Messi's game, down to a touch-by-touch level: his shooting and scoring production; where he shoots from; how often he sets up his own shots; what kind of kicks he uses to make those shots; his ability to take on defenders; how accurate his passes are; the kind of passes he makes; how often he creates scoring chances; how often those chances lead to goals; even how his defensive playmaking compares to other high-volume shooters.
Yet none of that really addresses the main potential confounder the author acknowledges: most measurable aspects of a player's game --not only (assisted) goals but also even touch-by-touch, more seemingly 'individual' skill measures such as passing success-- are arguably heavily conditioned on the ability of the rest of the team. (Today, for instance, Messi didn't score against Switzerland, and the team was goalless for 117 mins until a tepid 1-0 in extra time (edit: but assisted by Messi! my apologies)... go figure).
A 'matched' design would have been much more appropriate, but I realize it's hard to do sound data analysis on a journalist's deadline.
[+] [-] mladenkovacevic|11 years ago|reply
Except that goal would not have happened were it not for Messi. A great player makes all the other players a little bit better too.
[+] [-] theycallmemorty|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jorleif|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] guard-of-terra|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] samsonradu|11 years ago|reply
Some people also related this to the Asperger's Syndrome. http://www.reddit.com/r/aspergers/comments/1m17yp/alltime_gr...
[+] [-] Datsundere|11 years ago|reply
Fortunately barca was willing to pay him and take him in as well.
[+] [-] oblio|11 years ago|reply
I take that back after seeing this data!
[+] [-] tedsanders|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] will_work4tears|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tauslu|11 years ago|reply
Of course, one reason soccer is less dataful is the amount of luck involved in the game. So much underdog achievement is happening which is probably why the game is very much liked (there was a great link that I cannot find which shows the weight of luck of per sport (soccer is being close to the top))
Last comment about the study, given time, they could have considered defense aspect
[+] [-] anuraj|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] philwelch|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Pxtl|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] foobarqux|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bradleyjg|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] minusSeven|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|11 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] usaphp|11 years ago|reply
Is there any way to see who is who behind those dots on charts, very interesting.
[+] [-] Shorel|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] infinitebattery|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aptwebapps|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hmart|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] blablablaat|11 years ago|reply
Fuck off.
[+] [-] aptwebapps|11 years ago|reply
Tbh, it's great goal but hardly an outlier. There have been many as good already this World Cup. Nor is it the type of goal that you only see from Messi.
[+] [-] talles|11 years ago|reply
When we are talking about big downloads or video streaming makes sense, to save bandwidth (I'm not saying I agree with!!). But a blog article?
[+] [-] kimonos|11 years ago|reply
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