i read this article the other day, linked from zero hedge, and i was struck, as some other commenter above are, at how divorced from reality this piece is. i live in new york, grew up in new york, left for college, came back in jan 2007, just as the wall street obliteration of everything in the city reached its peak, and am still here.
with that said, things have changed...every wall street job lost is 3.3 other jobs lost (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQJz...), and rents/prices have moderated on the high end, especially in door man buildings. the vancancy rate on rental apts in many neighborhoods has moved from fractions of a percent to a couple percent...hardly a crisis. of course something dramatic happened in nyc--it being the epicenter of the credit crisis--but this author simply doesn't know the city he is writing about, so he has turned anecdotes into broad generalizations.
"Stores are closing or barely scraping by, offering "three suits for $250." No one is buying. "Food traffic" -- taxis ferrying people straight across Manhattan to the coolest restaurants -- has dwindled to a trickle. Theft, violent and drug crimes are on the rise. There are New Yorkers who pretend to be surprised if a bar only accepts cash, say they're going to an ATM, and never return. "Impulse shopping," the practice of popping down to a boutique over lunch, has died a death."
I would guess that the author saw a) one store advertising a suit sale, b) someone told him about perhaps taking the subway over a taxi to dinner, c) someone else who slipped out of a bar, and d) someone else who isn't shopping on impulse any more. He then interpreted them as broadly occurring trends. The Times does this all the time for 'trend' pieces. He just took it to a crazy hyperbolic extreme.
i could pick apart a lot more, but i think the example of Virgin closing is the best example of why this author is so off.
1) Music/Movie retailers are suffering not because of a downturn in NYC....they have other structural issues to their business. Tourist visits have barely dropped, and Broadway had its most successful year ever (http://www.eturbonews.com/11665/new-york-city-welcomes-new-b...).
I'd love to hear some perspectives from some HN folks who live in NYC. My wife and I were there for a week in Jan; I thought it was awesome, but it was my first time, so I don't have anything to compare it to.
This is complete hyperbole. Rents here are a little lower, but still higher than anywhere else. Shop windows aren't boarded up, and the ones that are empty will rent as soon as the price drops to a reasonable level.
There was some worry over the last year, but things have quieted down in the last few months. The big changes are mostly localized to the high end of incomes, where lifestyles have been downsized a bit. Non-profits that depend on wealthy donors are putting off plans to expand, and it may be easier to get seats at a popular show or a table in the most exclusive restaurants.
The streets are not filled with bankers who were making hundreds of thousands last year and are homeless this year. The subways are still crowded and no more or less clean than last year.
It's a big city, and it's not going to turn into a warzone because Lehman Brothers closed.
i've only been in nyc for 7 years now, so i can't compare it to anything before then, but things don't seem quite as dire as the article suggests. sure, i've got friends looking for work but many of them were looking for work before the real estate bust. brooklyn, especially, seems to be growing pretty rapidly still. partly, i'm sure, because it's slightly cheaper than the island - but less so each day. that said - there have been a lot more condos in increasingly unlikely neighborhoods over the past couple years - it's quite possible that as those mortgages come due, a housing glut will drive down housing prices/change the neighborhoods landscape more radically. for now, though, these condos are still holding out for people to lease / not open to renters. beyond real estate, those of my friends who have started small businesses in the last year are having a great time of it so far/expanding a lot faster than expected.
I've lived in New York City practically my whole life. I currently live in Brooklyn and commute to Manhattan. No matter where I go to hang out, there are always tons of people around, eating, drinking and partying. From my perspective I haven't noticed really any slowdown because if you walk in to almost any store on a weekend or after work, many people are still shopping for clothes, food, electronics and whatever.
In terms of jobs, I knew of a few people who've lost theirs but they were able to find new jobs in a matter of a few months.
So again, I don't notice much slowdown in NYC. In fact places in brooklyn such as Williamsburg, Carroll gardens, park slope are growing in popularity and people are moving to these for slightly cheaper rent than in the city. A few years ago, I remember that these places used to be very crappy and run down. Now they are blossoming.
[+] [-] jsm386|16 years ago|reply
with that said, things have changed...every wall street job lost is 3.3 other jobs lost (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQJz...), and rents/prices have moderated on the high end, especially in door man buildings. the vancancy rate on rental apts in many neighborhoods has moved from fractions of a percent to a couple percent...hardly a crisis. of course something dramatic happened in nyc--it being the epicenter of the credit crisis--but this author simply doesn't know the city he is writing about, so he has turned anecdotes into broad generalizations.
"Stores are closing or barely scraping by, offering "three suits for $250." No one is buying. "Food traffic" -- taxis ferrying people straight across Manhattan to the coolest restaurants -- has dwindled to a trickle. Theft, violent and drug crimes are on the rise. There are New Yorkers who pretend to be surprised if a bar only accepts cash, say they're going to an ATM, and never return. "Impulse shopping," the practice of popping down to a boutique over lunch, has died a death."
I would guess that the author saw a) one store advertising a suit sale, b) someone told him about perhaps taking the subway over a taxi to dinner, c) someone else who slipped out of a bar, and d) someone else who isn't shopping on impulse any more. He then interpreted them as broadly occurring trends. The Times does this all the time for 'trend' pieces. He just took it to a crazy hyperbolic extreme.
i could pick apart a lot more, but i think the example of Virgin closing is the best example of why this author is so off.
1) Music/Movie retailers are suffering not because of a downturn in NYC....they have other structural issues to their business. Tourist visits have barely dropped, and Broadway had its most successful year ever (http://www.eturbonews.com/11665/new-york-city-welcomes-new-b...).
and 2) The Virgin chain was bought by real estate companies in 2007, primarily b/c NYC's Times Square and Union Square locations had long term leases at below market rents. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/arts/music/15virgin.html
[+] [-] ryanwaggoner|16 years ago|reply
[+] [-] GavinB|16 years ago|reply
There was some worry over the last year, but things have quieted down in the last few months. The big changes are mostly localized to the high end of incomes, where lifestyles have been downsized a bit. Non-profits that depend on wealthy donors are putting off plans to expand, and it may be easier to get seats at a popular show or a table in the most exclusive restaurants.
The streets are not filled with bankers who were making hundreds of thousands last year and are homeless this year. The subways are still crowded and no more or less clean than last year.
It's a big city, and it's not going to turn into a warzone because Lehman Brothers closed.
[+] [-] tdonia|16 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pavel|16 years ago|reply
In terms of jobs, I knew of a few people who've lost theirs but they were able to find new jobs in a matter of a few months.
So again, I don't notice much slowdown in NYC. In fact places in brooklyn such as Williamsburg, Carroll gardens, park slope are growing in popularity and people are moving to these for slightly cheaper rent than in the city. A few years ago, I remember that these places used to be very crappy and run down. Now they are blossoming.
[+] [-] ilyak|16 years ago|reply
Because that part of the article reads like communist propaganda about rotting capitalist society.
[+] [-] jsm386|16 years ago|reply
A good place to start would be: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_blackout_of_1977 http://www.amazon.com/Ladies-Gentlemen-Bronx-Burning-Basebal...