[samirmenon]

"Conventional beliefs only ever come to appear arbitrary and wrong in retrospect; whenever one collapses, we call the old belief a bubble."

I couldn't help but feel that, in 10 years, Silicon Valley's current bubble (which Peter Thiel buys into) will seem this way.

[adventured]

Thiel goes so far as to reference Twitter in a recent article as an example of how the eyeballs / users / etc. type metrics aren't always wrong (he also used Facebook).

Which falls flat when you consider that Twitter has proven itself to be anything but a successful business the past seven years or so. It's currently bleeding money at an epic rate, and if you assume a $30 to $35 billion market cap, there is almost no scenario in which it can ever justify that by earning a profit (even if revenue were profit today, they'd still be fairly valued; best case scenario possible is in ten years they're worth about what they are now, assuming non-stop growth and that they eventually have a $5b sales / $1.xb profit business)).

On the downside of this stock market bubble, when cash is harder to come by, Twitter is still bleeding out, and their growth trails off, the company is worth maybe 15% of what it's currently trading for. Thiel will of course no longer be discussing Twitter as a good example at that point (he'll then stick to only Facebook as the example).