[ibebrett]

I think it should be pointed out that bayesian's believe bayes theorem as a statement about plausibility of statements, so intuitions about an event space (which are obvious statements about sets) don't carry over to the general case.

[rndn]

Do you (or someone else) happen to know of a good introduction into Bayesian's intuition about the plausibility of statements?

[tmoertel]

The best reference is Jaynes's Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. The first three chapters are online for free and explain the development of probability theory as a logic for plausible reasoning [1]. If you want to get a quick taste, I wrote a short blog post that introduces the theory while working through an interesting coin-toss problem [2].

[1] http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

[2] http://blog.moertel.com/posts/2010-12-20-more-on-the-evidenc...

[pdkl95]

http://jakevdp.github.io/blog/2014/03/11/frequentism-and-bay...

This a very good 4 part series on the subject, with a focus (esp. in part 3) on how this affects scientific statements.