[parm289]

Just a little background on medallion finance:

A few summers ago, I worked in commercial credit and we did a financing for a "taxi mogul." He was replacing several cars in his fleet, and wanted to take out term loans for the full purchase price of the cars (approx. $30k each, IIRC).

The loans would be secured by cash flow, but the business also posted medallions as collateral. Each loan was attributed to the vehicle purchased with the proceeds and secured by that vehicle's medallion.

It's hard to value something like a taxi medallion. Medallions aren't liquid -- they are usually sold in very low volumes at auctions controlled by the TLC (in NYC). Additionally, the TLC limits the number of outstanding medallions. In practice, most of the medallions are concentrated in the hands of "taxi moguls" who started taxi businesses in the early 20th century when medallions were cheap (think $30k). The best approximation for value we had was the prices commanded by medallions at auction. When I was doing diligence on this deal a few years ago (before Uber), prices were accepted as $1.1mm per medallion. (In reality, that was at best the value of the "marginal" medallion sold; i.e. you could probably not put 10 medallions up for auction at $11mm.)

That means that a $30k term loan would have a loan-to-value of about 3% -- a dream for a bank, assuming the medallions can be seized and sold at market value upon default. That also meant that the loans would be approved almost regardless of the integrity of cash flow. Those characteristics allowed the more cunning taxi moguls to borrow a lot of money against their medallions, securing low rates due to the strength of their collateral posting, and lend the money out at higher rates to earn arbitrage.

There was a good amount of discussion about the medallion bubble -- all it would take is a significant increase in the number of medallions authorized by the TLC or a few failed auctions, and a medallion sold at a large haircut, for the value of all medallions to plummet. Granted, the drop in value might not trip loan covenants, but it would significantly erode the balance sheets of these businesses. At the time, we didn't expect that there would be an external force that would hurt medallion values.

Honestly, skyrocketing medallion prices made it clear that additional ride capacity was needed/demanded. The interesting fact is that the medallion market wasn't disrupted by the issuance of additional medallions, but rather a drop in the demand for yellow cab rides -- a scenario that taxi moguls likely hadn't planned for.

All in all, an interesting asset class that most people aren't aware of -- those 4-letter signs on taxis hold no meaning to riders, and almost nobody on the street would guess that they represent assets worth over one million dollars.