TL;DR: Among light and moderate drinkers as a group, 27 of the 30 factors were correlated with drinking levels, and in the direction that could create a false appearance of moderate drinking leading to better health. For example, as people enter old age, they drink less and become more likely to die. ... In light of these facts, Occam’s Razor argues for a simple theory: the net marginal impact of drinking on health is negative at all levels; and moderate drinking is a marker for relative youth, affluence, and healthy habits rather than a cause of good health.
I guess he's suggesting that the apparent positive correlation between moderate drinking and health is an example of Simpson's paradox [0].
>In light of these facts, Occam’s Razor argues for a simple theory: the net marginal impact of drinking on health is negative at all levels; and moderate drinking is a marker for relative youth, affluence, and healthy habits rather than a cause of good health.
That would be true only if all studies failed to control for such parameters, which sounds BS.
According to Occam’s Razor it's more probably that the author is yielding Occam's Razor wrongly, than that all those researchers are wrong and fail at such basic research methodology as controlling for age and those other parameters...
argues for a simple theory: the net marginal impact of drinking on health is negative at all levels; and moderate drinking is a marker for relative youth, affluence, and healthy habits rather than a cause of good health
In France, we have a strong belief that one glass of wine per day is something sane and you should actually do it. There is no scientific study behind it and every other tests seem in fact to tend to show that alcohol is harmful for the body. But because it makes everyone happy to believe so (myself included!), we root for it.
Actually there are tons of studies behind it. Whether they are accurate or not (as lots of studies contradict each other and are reported before peer review), it's another matter, but popular foods and drinks like wine, coffee, sugar, etc have tons of research done into them. E.g:
There was a recent large study, mentioned in the article, that said that drinking up to 6 drinks a day was healthier than being teetotal. It got a lot of publicity. And it's probably not true, so it's good that articles like this one are appearing.
Meanwhile, you shun antidepressants, and stimulants (Adderall, Ritalin, etc.). Just because alcohol has been discovered 10000 years ago, doesn't mean it's better than modern pharma. It's the same thing with coffee and cigarettes...
It's an interesting topic on its own, but I would draw people's attention to the bulletpoint about 'Mendelian randomization': this is an exotic kind of natural experiment which is growing in importance as genetic sequencing becomes more prevalent, and it's worth looking at the papers in more detail just to understand the logic of this design & how it's being applied.
I didn't really read all the comments, but I think if you really care about the issue its pretty apparent moderate drinking being healthy is totally nonsense.
Baloney manipulation of statistics. There are like 30 different known mechanisms for alcohol being toxic, and as far as I know only a couple for it providing physical benefit. As far as I know, there are no animal studies where moderate alcohol increases lifespan or health. The animal studies all show common sense, alcohol is pretty darn bad for you.
It's worth noting that even if there's no health benefit to regular moderate drinking, there's no argument made here that there's necessarily harm from regular moderate drinking.
So maybe the takeaway is simply that if you choose to drink moderately, don't pat yourself on the back.
Actually it is making such an argument: "Occam’s Razor argues for a simple theory: the net marginal impact of drinking on health is negative at all levels"
They don't provide definitive proof, but that is their argument.
But the argument has been that "moderate" drinking is associated with increased risk vs associated with decreased risk, not that it's neutral.
The decreased risk group were suggesting that upto 6 drinks per day were linked to lower risks than teetotalism even when you adjust for chronically ill teetotalers (ie people who no longer drink because they've destroyed their liver).
A US standard drink is 18 ml of alcohol so six of those a day is quite a lot.
This is not an area where I have much more than a passing interest, so much of this is over my head, so to speak. I was first introduced to the idea of healthy moderate drinking in Walter Willett's Eat, Drink, and Be Healthy.
I just read the Methods section of that article. It does not use a RCT design; it's an observational study based on questionnaire data. All standard confound caveats apply (with the exception of the controls accounted for in the paper).
I've never heard the idea that "moderate drinking" was good for your health.
I've heard that having 1 or 2 dark beers per week can positively impact your HDL Cholesterol levels.
I've heard that drinking a glass of red wine every now and then can benefit your cardiovascular health.
However, I've never heard of any health benefits from light beer, liquor, white wine, or any other alcoholic beverage. I am curious where the idea of "benefits of moderate drinking" came from.
The effects on mental health should also be considered, don't see it addressed/considered. It cuts both ways, but since we're talking about moderation, it could well be there's measurable positive impact for the classic "one glass of wine a day" case under certain conditions. Something the French, Italians and Spaniards are naturally clued in about, à la Mediterranean diet.
Personally, I prefer to get wasted every now and then, instead of getting into the habit of consuming a tiny amount of alcohol every day. But to each their own..
I also strongly believe in this: Everything in moderation, even moderation. :) (Bonus points if you know who said it)
So do I! Which is relevant to this article, because sometimes I don't stop at thinking, and try to find out. And I've found that quite a few studies linking alcohol with good health ultimately come from interested sources, while studies claiming that alcohol is not beneficial even in moderation don't seem to come from temperance promoting associations or anything like that. That has been enough to convince me (in a non scientifical way) that alcohol is probably harmful or at least not beneficial, even in small amounts.
On the other hand, most epidemiological and medical studies, if not all, are statistical in one way or another, so it shouldn't be an indicator of anything. I recommend Bad Pharma [1], a very interesting book whose primary goal is to get rid of the many kinds of bias present in the current medical science. Among many interesting things, it describes a few different ways to perform medical studies, all of which are in some way statistical.
My purely observational take on this: moderate drinking itself is the myth: most people who drink daily do not drink in anything resembling moderate amounts, especially as the years go by.
My observation is that my drinking habits match my food habits. Both require careful attention although alcohol unlike food has a built-in negative feedback mechanism.
I do a dry week without alcohol every once in a while just to make sure I can.
I find doing a dry week without alcohol the same difficulty as dry week without diet Coke. Which is to say I like diet Coke a lot and both require effort. You get things like hey wouldn't a diet Coke be nice, and then have to remember you aren't drinking that now and then the thought will repeat several times in a fairly small time window.
There are places that have a wine culture, where people drink with every meal and that have less alcoholics and over-consumption than other countries without such a culture.
At this point I treat it like an excuse you make for yourself.
I know I went through the following progression: oh crap I"m drinking too much hard liquor so I need to quit => ugh I really need a drink => I guess I'll have some wine, it's good for you right?
Most of my family (parents, uncles, grandparents...) have a glass of wine with dinner. Once in a blue moon they'll drink a glass of whiskey or something like that.
My anecdotal observations actually show the opposite, most pleople drink less as years go by.
[+] [-] ScottBurson|11 years ago|reply
I guess he's suggesting that the apparent positive correlation between moderate drinking and health is an example of Simpson's paradox [0].
[0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
[+] [-] coldtea|11 years ago|reply
That would be true only if all studies failed to control for such parameters, which sounds BS.
According to Occam’s Razor it's more probably that the author is yielding Occam's Razor wrongly, than that all those researchers are wrong and fail at such basic research methodology as controlling for age and those other parameters...
[+] [-] mulligan|11 years ago|reply
argues for a simple theory: the net marginal impact of drinking on health is negative at all levels; and moderate drinking is a marker for relative youth, affluence, and healthy habits rather than a cause of good health
[+] [-] hartator|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] coldtea|11 years ago|reply
Actually there are tons of studies behind it. Whether they are accurate or not (as lots of studies contradict each other and are reported before peer review), it's another matter, but popular foods and drinks like wine, coffee, sugar, etc have tons of research done into them. E.g:
http://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/17801_ENG_HTML.php
http://www.coloradocancerblogs.org/study-red-wine-prevents-c...
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/18104/20141018/red-wine-ca...
[+] [-] js2|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DanBC|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jotm|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] senorito|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gwern|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kayimbo|11 years ago|reply
Baloney manipulation of statistics. There are like 30 different known mechanisms for alcohol being toxic, and as far as I know only a couple for it providing physical benefit. As far as I know, there are no animal studies where moderate alcohol increases lifespan or health. The animal studies all show common sense, alcohol is pretty darn bad for you.
[+] [-] Elepsis|11 years ago|reply
So maybe the takeaway is simply that if you choose to drink moderately, don't pat yourself on the back.
[+] [-] pc2g4d|11 years ago|reply
They don't provide definitive proof, but that is their argument.
[+] [-] DanBC|11 years ago|reply
The decreased risk group were suggesting that upto 6 drinks per day were linked to lower risks than teetotalism even when you adjust for chronically ill teetotalers (ie people who no longer drink because they've destroyed their liver).
A US standard drink is 18 ml of alcohol so six of those a day is quite a lot.
[+] [-] pdiddy|11 years ago|reply
Here is a link to one of the studies he cites:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12519921
Does this study not constitute a randomized trial on the benefit of moderate drinking?
[+] [-] eegilbert|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|11 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] camelNotation|11 years ago|reply
I've heard that having 1 or 2 dark beers per week can positively impact your HDL Cholesterol levels.
I've heard that drinking a glass of red wine every now and then can benefit your cardiovascular health.
However, I've never heard of any health benefits from light beer, liquor, white wine, or any other alcoholic beverage. I am curious where the idea of "benefits of moderate drinking" came from.
[+] [-] mastre_|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jrk_|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] acheron|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 31reasons|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gordaco|11 years ago|reply
On the other hand, most epidemiological and medical studies, if not all, are statistical in one way or another, so it shouldn't be an indicator of anything. I recommend Bad Pharma [1], a very interesting book whose primary goal is to get rid of the many kinds of bias present in the current medical science. Among many interesting things, it describes a few different ways to perform medical studies, all of which are in some way statistical.
[1] http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3D...
[+] [-] saraid216|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|11 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] uptownJimmy|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] arielweisberg|11 years ago|reply
I do a dry week without alcohol every once in a while just to make sure I can.
I find doing a dry week without alcohol the same difficulty as dry week without diet Coke. Which is to say I like diet Coke a lot and both require effort. You get things like hey wouldn't a diet Coke be nice, and then have to remember you aren't drinking that now and then the thought will repeat several times in a fairly small time window.
[+] [-] wutbrodo|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] coldtea|11 years ago|reply
There are places that have a wine culture, where people drink with every meal and that have less alcoholics and over-consumption than other countries without such a culture.
[+] [-] mildbow|11 years ago|reply
I know I went through the following progression: oh crap I"m drinking too much hard liquor so I need to quit => ugh I really need a drink => I guess I'll have some wine, it's good for you right?
[+] [-] loopbit|11 years ago|reply
My anecdotal observations actually show the opposite, most pleople drink less as years go by.