Imagine that for a moment: Self driving car companies could promise to pay all accident expenses provided it was on auto drive at the time of accident.
Not only is that a marketing win, potentially reducing accidents and saving costs for owners... if you jump forward many years of Google (or other) defending owners in court you would reach a point even judges would be biased to believe that the auto-driven car could not have caused an accident, further disadvantaging non-auto cars in the market.
Keep in mind that every autocar will have an extremely accurate recording of the accident that can be analyzed and played back during a hearing. Determining fault will be trivial in almost all cases.
I think that will be necessary. The selling point is that these cars drive better than people and get into far fewer accidents. As the manufacturer, you have to show you believe in that.
This is why we’ve programmed our cars to pause briefly after a light turns green before proceeding into the intersection
I programmed my brain to do this after learning to drive in Miami. I always look both ways before proceeding, just as I would before crossing as a pedestrian. When approaching an intersection, especially at night, I also try to look for what's coming from the side.
Intersections can be scary places
As a runner I find intersections terrifying and will typically cross instead a few hundred yards away. I'd rather jaywalk and have to deal with cars from only two directions. In my experience crosswalks are often the least safe place to cross.
My friend was put into a coma for 6 weeks, suffered a traumatic brain injury and spent a year and a half in rehabilitation because she drove through an intersection on a green light as soon as it went green. The worst part is that the driver that hit her got off scott-free because she suffered memory loss so her testimony was void, and apparently the truck driver that witnessed it wasn't enough.
Every time I hear about the amazingly low accident rates in current generation self-driving cars I'm reminded of this joke (unfortunately I can't remember the source):
Grandpa, what did you do before self-driving cars?
Well, we just drove them ourselves. We just needed a little practice and to take a test.
I want to hear the argument about people who want to drive.
I enjoy driving. I like driving cars. I still drive a manual and will not buy an automatic transmission. I participate in car clubs and I compete in autocross events. I enjoy automotive photography and I do my own maintenance on my vehicles.
What happens to people like me who actually enjoy driving and the act of owning a car? Do my loves get phased out because the majority of people just think of cars as appliances? Will this give birth to "classic-driving shows" just like we have classic-car shows and cruises?
Not saying I don't like innovation, I'd absolutely love to own a Tesla Roadster, but some things need to be preserved.
I want to hear the argument about people who want to ride.
I enjoy riding. I like riding horses. I still ride a horse and will not buy an automobile. I participate in riding clubs and I compete in horse racing events. I enjoy horse photography and I do my own hoof maintenance on my steeds.
What happens to people like me who actually enjoy riding and the act of owning a horse? Do my loves get phased out because the majority of people just think of transportation as appliances? Will this give birth to "classic-riding shows"?
Not saying I don't like innovation, I'd absolutely love to own a model-T, but some things need to be preserved.
People still ride horses and we've had cars for over 100 years. I don't see driving going away, it just might be constrained in when and where you are allowed to drive(maybe like Autobahn in Chicago and Motorsports Ranch in Houston).
I think it's perfectly acceptable to expect that the enthusiasts will be the ones to preserve the things they love that fall out of favor. I enjoy driving on a nice empty road as well, but I don't think it's something that "need[s] to be preserved." It's something we have to do that we've learned to enjoy and do more than we need to. If it stops being something we have to do it's up to us to make time to do it for pleasure.
People love to fly but not everyone should be a pilot. Same goes with driving. The driving test could get more vigorous and you might not be able to drive on all roads but you will still be able to drive.
You mentioned cars as appliances, but you forgot the part where humans driving cars has cause of millions of deaths and many more injuries. I expect it will still be possible to drive cars manually, but in dedicated or isolated areas.
From a sentimental perspective, I hear you. I've also enjoyed driving, taking care of my car, etc. That said, the idea that some things need to be preserved isn't going to keep human-driven cars in the mainstream if the world wants to go in a different direction.
Take a look at newspapers -- I have no fewer than 5 relatives bemoaning the collapse of physical newspapers. Because nostalgia. It's decidedly more efficient to get your news electronically. How long before The Times discontinues home delivery?
Even if (when?) self-driving cars become the majority, I think you'll still see hobbyist avenues for enjoying cars -- with, my guess is, higher expense to you and a lot more regulation on use (e.g. not allowed to drive in cities?).
Most likely driving tests will be tightened and be made more difficult to pass. The main barrier to doin this right now is that so many people need to drive.
It doesn't need to be spelled out that crashes are not evenly distributed between the driving population, and taking the 20% worst drivers off the road is going to reduce crashes by 80%.
My insurance rates are low because of a very good driving history despite owning high powered cars. I don't see any reasons why that would change.
Manual driven cars will not disappear, what will happen is Insurance will go through the roof as more self-driving cars are added to the roads. There will be some roads declared for self-driven cars only and some that will allow both.
Driving isn't going to go anywhere, but I can see driving being "penalized" via exorbitant insurance rates - so much so that the it probably might offset the cost of buying a manually driven car.
It'll probably end up being a hobby, albeit an expensive one.
I agree in that I hope that ability for people to drive cars will go not away completely. Driving can be a pleasure and a rush.
I do hope that we would start holding drivers legally responsible for the deaths and injuries they cause. If you choose to drive a car yourself and you cause an accident that kills someone, then you should face a manslaughter charge. If you hit or injure someone, that should be an assault charge. I think it is ridiculous that this currently is not the case.
Your only argument seems to be that people should be allowed to do/have things that they like. I don't think this a very strong argument. We can come up a long list of things that people like(d) are no longer allowed because they are considered too harmful.
I wonder if there will come a day when you can still drive your car, but you'll have to pay exorbitant insurance rates. That seems like a reasonable midpoint.
I'll admit that every time I see one of the self driving cars, I'm tempted to do something crazy nearby to see what it does, like cut it off or swerve towards it.
So far I've been a responsible adult and not done that But it's so tempting. Until I think of all the lives I will put in danger. Maybe they can invite me to a test track so I can be an a-hole to the self driving car in a safe and controlled environment. :)
You just described my ultimate "marketing" video for a self-driving car. Google should take one to a test track and get other drivers to mess with it and show us the video of what it does :)
Google says their self-driving cars were not at fault in all 11 cases and perhaps technically they were not but I don't think you can discount the possibility that the self-driving cars may have behaved in an unexpected manner that may have contributed to the accidents. A machine might make choices that are logical but which throw off other drivers. Strict adherence to the rules could cause problems. For example, there are cases where changing lanes in an intersection, although illegal, could avoid an accident. If a machine controlled car insisted on following the rules an accident might be unavoidable or the action could force another driver in to an unavoidable accident.
I don't look forward to the day when I'm no longer allowed to drive my own car but it would be awesome if robot controlled cars coordinated among themselves to avoid traffic jams and to operate safely at much higher speeds. I could see cars of the future running normally at 200MPH+ were typical human drivers would find it difficult to operate safely. Hey and no more traffic tickets. One possible way to move in this direction would be to introduce robot only lanes.
The driver is not the problem of cars.
It is the fact that in average 1,5 t and 10 m2 are used to transport 100 kg and 1 m2.
Driverlessness does not change the bad physics of car transportation decisively.
I was thinking the same thing. If Google start logging license plate numbers (and, hey, it's Google), they could build a database of known dangerous vehicles and automatically give them a wide berth.
When the car is too good and fast to respond, it will get hit from behind it seems. I guess they could change their algorithm to be slow-reacting. dumbing down machines so that petty humans can catch up.
About 33,000 people die on America’s roads every year.
There will eventually be a fatality caused by a self-driving car. I wonder how many of these we will be willing to accept. Say self-driving cars reduce fatalities by 10x. That is, by switching 100% to self-driving cars there are 3300 deaths a year, but they are all caused by self-driving cars.
Would America accept that?
I personally doubt we would. I think the number will have to be in the hundreds at most, closer to what we accept from plane crashes.
How safe do self-driving cars have to be before we start using them?
Come to think of it. Imagine driving a car yourself on a road full of self-driving cars. You would be able to drive as fast as you like and cut off anybody without ever being afriad of retaliation. Self-driving cars will always let you in because they do not want to cause a collision.
I'm pretty excited for the prospect of a self driving car. My commute is about 40 miles round trip not too traffic ridden but I wouldn't mind relaxing a little. I would rather telework more often than two days a week, but it looks like he self driving car is more imminent.
Considering that the number of vehicle-miles driven annually is in the trillions, that is still a pretty small sample size. Do we know whether it's statistically significant?
What will be interesting will be how human behaviour will change once all cars are self driving cars. Some cyclist / pedestrians might blatantly cross a red light intersection because he knows the self driving cars will detect and stop for him... something to think about.
[+] [-] cyphunk|11 years ago|reply
Not only is that a marketing win, potentially reducing accidents and saving costs for owners... if you jump forward many years of Google (or other) defending owners in court you would reach a point even judges would be biased to believe that the auto-driven car could not have caused an accident, further disadvantaging non-auto cars in the market.
[+] [-] ender7|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] btian|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] BurningFrog|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jalonso510|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DanaDanger|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] js2|11 years ago|reply
I programmed my brain to do this after learning to drive in Miami. I always look both ways before proceeding, just as I would before crossing as a pedestrian. When approaching an intersection, especially at night, I also try to look for what's coming from the side.
Intersections can be scary places
As a runner I find intersections terrifying and will typically cross instead a few hundred yards away. I'd rather jaywalk and have to deal with cars from only two directions. In my experience crosswalks are often the least safe place to cross.
Also, some comic relief:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NEFYCaKakE (Starman)
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_BtPZRbZxY (George Carlin)
[+] [-] rhino369|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] girvo|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yinghang|11 years ago|reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZG1HgOyFkU
[+] [-] benihana|11 years ago|reply
Same after living in Orlando and now New York. Just because you have the right of way doesn't mean it's safe.
The 2 ton block of metal that hits your meaty body at 45 miles per hour doesn't care that societal rules said you were safe to cross.
[+] [-] buss|11 years ago|reply
Grandpa, what did you do before self-driving cars?
Well, we just drove them ourselves. We just needed a little practice and to take a test.
Wow, and nobody got killed!?
Oh, no, millions of people died.
[+] [-] NovaS1X|11 years ago|reply
I enjoy driving. I like driving cars. I still drive a manual and will not buy an automatic transmission. I participate in car clubs and I compete in autocross events. I enjoy automotive photography and I do my own maintenance on my vehicles.
What happens to people like me who actually enjoy driving and the act of owning a car? Do my loves get phased out because the majority of people just think of cars as appliances? Will this give birth to "classic-driving shows" just like we have classic-car shows and cruises?
Not saying I don't like innovation, I'd absolutely love to own a Tesla Roadster, but some things need to be preserved.
[+] [-] nazgulnarsil|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wwkeyboard|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] calvin_c|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pat2man|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TulliusCicero|11 years ago|reply
Oh, you'll still be able to drive, alright. On private roads designated for those who want to take their life into their own hands.
For regular, public roads, your love of driving will take a backseat to others' love of continuing to be alive and uninjured.
[+] [-] cmelbye|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kmano8|11 years ago|reply
Take a look at newspapers -- I have no fewer than 5 relatives bemoaning the collapse of physical newspapers. Because nostalgia. It's decidedly more efficient to get your news electronically. How long before The Times discontinues home delivery?
Even if (when?) self-driving cars become the majority, I think you'll still see hobbyist avenues for enjoying cars -- with, my guess is, higher expense to you and a lot more regulation on use (e.g. not allowed to drive in cities?).
[+] [-] brc|11 years ago|reply
It doesn't need to be spelled out that crashes are not evenly distributed between the driving population, and taking the 20% worst drivers off the road is going to reduce crashes by 80%.
My insurance rates are low because of a very good driving history despite owning high powered cars. I don't see any reasons why that would change.
[+] [-] redbeard0x0a|11 years ago|reply
Enjoy your cars now!
[+] [-] trequartista|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] shkkmo|11 years ago|reply
I do hope that we would start holding drivers legally responsible for the deaths and injuries they cause. If you choose to drive a car yourself and you cause an accident that kills someone, then you should face a manslaughter charge. If you hit or injure someone, that should be an assault charge. I think it is ridiculous that this currently is not the case.
[+] [-] jmilloy|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] castell|11 years ago|reply
Self-driving cars would be great to drive to the workplace and back home. But on weekend I want to drive myself on lonely scenic roads.
[+] [-] JshWright|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tdees40|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anigbrowl|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jedberg|11 years ago|reply
So far I've been a responsible adult and not done that But it's so tempting. Until I think of all the lives I will put in danger. Maybe they can invite me to a test track so I can be an a-hole to the self driving car in a safe and controlled environment. :)
[+] [-] jcoffland|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] grecy|11 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jcoffland|11 years ago|reply
I don't look forward to the day when I'm no longer allowed to drive my own car but it would be awesome if robot controlled cars coordinated among themselves to avoid traffic jams and to operate safely at much higher speeds. I could see cars of the future running normally at 200MPH+ were typical human drivers would find it difficult to operate safely. Hey and no more traffic tickets. One possible way to move in this direction would be to introduce robot only lanes.
[+] [-] swalsh|11 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] js2|11 years ago|reply
There will eventually be a fatality caused by a self-driving car. I wonder how many of these we will be willing to accept. Say self-driving cars reduce fatalities by 10x. That is, by switching 100% to self-driving cars there are 3300 deaths a year, but they are all caused by self-driving cars.
Would America accept that?
I personally doubt we would. I think the number will have to be in the hundreds at most, closer to what we accept from plane crashes.
How safe do self-driving cars have to be before we start using them?
[+] [-] unknown|11 years ago|reply
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