So.. how do we know for a fact that in parapsychology the null hypothesis should always be true?
We do not understand how it could work, but to therefore say that whenever we label some experiment as falling under the school of parapsychology, any significant results must be a fluke.. that is almost analogous to saying that any deviation from newtons' prediction of planet movements must be due to measurement errors.
In my opinion such a mindset is a sure way to hinder scientific progress: it heavily favors finding acceptable truths.
"The problem is that the mechanical principles that govern each particle of our bodies (and of the things around us) already specify how each of us behaves as a whole. But in that case, there is no room for the ghostlike component to have any influence - if it did so, it would have to make some of the particles sometimes violate the principles that all particles are always observed to obey whenever we check carefully."
- Gary Drescher, Good and Real, chapter 2.1: The Case against Ghosts
At the very least it's highly likely that the positive results of parapsychology, or the vast bulk of them, are due to the sort of statistical problems that plague other sciences as well. I cannot, of course, say it's 100% certain.
"Fact" doesn't mean p==1 (an unreachable goal) it means p approximates 1, less some insignificant minuscule slice of the pie within which live all the mad implausibilities you might think up - but which Occam's razor forbids.
If the findings of parapsychology are always false, then it's only because things cease to become parapsychology as soon as there is an established mechanism. Things go from being parapsychology to psychology all the time.
Synaesthasia, mirror neurons, and mystical experiences are three completely different parapsychological phenomena that have become accepted by mainstream science within the last ten years. I see no reason why science won't keep validating more paranormal theories in the future.
No, those were just wrongly categorized to begin with.
"The physics-defying spooky fact of X" belongs to parapsych (and I'd casually bet my life on the null hypothesis under good enough testing).
"Experience of X" belongs to neuropsych (and it reflects poorly on them if they dump it over the fence on the parapsychologists because it just sounds so spooky and unprofessional. Bah humbug.)
This position is incredibly difficult to actually maintain, given that when _non_ parapsychologists (that is, people who don't presuppose the telepathy exists) reproduce the experiments, they consistently get contradictory results. Infact, its only when the believers in psi phenomena do these experiments that they discover positive results. Is this a problem with science as a whole, or is this a problem with parapsychologists?
its only when the believers in psi phenomena do these experiments that they discover positive results
Hmm? Isn't that what we expect if there are no psi phenomena?
[ETA: Ah, perhaps this was an argument against the premise that parapsychologists use exactly the same procedures as other scientists. But in other sciences, one suspects that researchers who believe in XYZ tend to find it more than those who don't...]
Eliezer's post is a good one, and this page is also a nice framing of what I also thought was the best part of his post. It is a refreshing way of perceiving parapsychology, and for once I am glad that John Archibald Wheeler was unable to get parapsychology expelled from the AAAS.
At last, with this perspective, someone has turned the pile of steaming refuse that is parapsychology into a vein of gold, waiting to be mined.
[+] [-] bOR_|16 years ago|reply
We do not understand how it could work, but to therefore say that whenever we label some experiment as falling under the school of parapsychology, any significant results must be a fluke.. that is almost analogous to saying that any deviation from newtons' prediction of planet movements must be due to measurement errors.
In my opinion such a mindset is a sure way to hinder scientific progress: it heavily favors finding acceptable truths.
[+] [-] gort|16 years ago|reply
- Gary Drescher, Good and Real, chapter 2.1: The Case against Ghosts
At the very least it's highly likely that the positive results of parapsychology, or the vast bulk of them, are due to the sort of statistical problems that plague other sciences as well. I cannot, of course, say it's 100% certain.
[+] [-] pmichaud|16 years ago|reply
http://www.petermichaud.com/essays/dont-reject-your-experien...
We HAVE to assume "out there" stuff has some objective underpinning, or we commit the same sin as invoking God, but in mirror image.
[+] [-] JulianMorrison|16 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Alex3917|16 years ago|reply
Synaesthasia, mirror neurons, and mystical experiences are three completely different parapsychological phenomena that have become accepted by mainstream science within the last ten years. I see no reason why science won't keep validating more paranormal theories in the future.
[+] [-] JulianMorrison|16 years ago|reply
"The physics-defying spooky fact of X" belongs to parapsych (and I'd casually bet my life on the null hypothesis under good enough testing).
"Experience of X" belongs to neuropsych (and it reflects poorly on them if they dump it over the fence on the parapsychologists because it just sounds so spooky and unprofessional. Bah humbug.)
[+] [-] kurtosis|16 years ago|reply
[+] [-] joeyo|16 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|16 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] psygnisfive|16 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gort|16 years ago|reply
Hmm? Isn't that what we expect if there are no psi phenomena?
[ETA: Ah, perhaps this was an argument against the premise that parapsychologists use exactly the same procedures as other scientists. But in other sciences, one suspects that researchers who believe in XYZ tend to find it more than those who don't...]
[+] [-] gort|16 years ago|reply
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=978124
[+] [-] carbocation|16 years ago|reply
At last, with this perspective, someone has turned the pile of steaming refuse that is parapsychology into a vein of gold, waiting to be mined.