> Straubel ended his talk with a slide that featured a quote from Sheikh Yamani, a former Saudi oil minister: "The stone age came to an end not for lack of stones. And the oil age will come to an end not for lack of oil."
I remember when calling long distance was a big deal. It cost real money, and multiple big companies specialized in it and competed fiercely. Today for Internet connected folks, long distance phone calling is too cheap to meter.
It's not just that the price fell, although it did. It's that better technologies came along--cell phones and Internet--and the remaining cost of long distance just become embedded in them.
It's interesting to think of where energy generation or storage costs might become embedded. Homes? Cars? Appliances?
How much energy storage do you have in your house right now? Looking around right now, I've got 3 laptops, 2 tablets, and a smartphone in view. We're slowly accumulating watt-hours, just as a side effect of buying mobility.
Great points, but about energy storage in the home, mentioning tablets and smartphones, those are insanely negligible. An iPhone has about a 6 watthour battery. A large TV uses about 240 watts, so hooking up your iPhone to just your TV gets you about 90 seconds of power. A typical 1000+ watt coffee maker or microwave or toaster won't even be able to make you coffee or hot water or toast because the iPhone's battery lasts about 20 seconds.
That's why the whole Tesla car battery and home battery is interesting, because the latest Teslas have about 80000 watt hour batteries, or the equivalent of having 13 thousand iPhone batteries in your garage, and the powerwall batteries they sell each have the capacity of about 1500 iPhones. If everyone had such an electric car and battery pack, intermittent sustainable energy would make a lot more sense, but phones and tablets aren't going to play any role in energy storage. Laptops with 100 wh+ batteries could play a tiny tiny role, but that market is all going fanless on ever more powerful and efficient mobile chips, so I don't see that happening either.
Utility grade solar already has a less then 8 year payback. For profit companies are setting up money making solar plants in the SW right now. Solar here. I applaud the Saudis for shutting off fracking in US. It was kinda like a fever that cleared the system of pathogens.
Saudi Arabia hasn't shut off fracking in the US in any respect.
As of July 3rd, US crude oil production was 9.6 million barrels per day. The highest in at least 32 years. This is one year after the price of oil began to plunge. Since December / January, when oil particularly got cheaper, US crude production has expanded another 5%.
In fact, the Saudis have accomplished the effect of forcing US companies to innovate and make fracking even cheaper. What people seem to fail to understand about fracking, is that it's a shift in technology, not a temporary blip. It will continue to get cheaper and more efficient, and it will spread globally, leading to a wave of oil for decades. Just wait until you see what US frackers can do in Mexico with a liberalized oil market there.
As an example of technology making fracking cheaper, meet re-fracking:
You are wrong on the Saudis: lowering the price of oil had the main effect of making most energy alternatives less interesting in the near future, effectively buying them some extra time.
It also had the effect of making fracking too expensive, but I bet they didn't care much about it.
I'm not entirely sure about that being the Saudi's move. I suspect they cut a deal with the US to destabilize the Russian economy (remember that at the time when a lot of the big changes were being implemented by Saudi Arabia, Russia was using oil money to fund some aggressive moves in the ex-Soviet bloc). Fracking cutbacks in the US may have been one of the things the US traded for that.
I have a startup in solar software, and the big thing that I don't think people here realize is that 64% of the installed cost of solar in the U.S. is soft costs (i.e. not hardware)[1]. The industry is incredibly inefficient when it comes to customer acquisition, marketing, distribution, project development, permitting, monitoring, analytics. etc. There's a huge effort by the DOE[2] and the industry itself[3] to attack soft costs with software and process improvements. The vast majority of innovation in solar over the next decade will be in software.
However, strangely, much of the startup community remains uninvolved. Why? The solar industry is expected to grow by 100-200x over the next 30-40 years[4], even when it's already a $14 billion dollar industry[5]. And yet, this week in SF, there's a huge solar conference[6], and I personally know most of the software companies there (there's only a few dozen of us). Why isn't more of the startup community coming in an "disrupting" solar software along side us? We just got $100k in free money from the DOE. We closed a seed round in less than 6 weeks. Pretty much every solar software company we know (including us) is hiring. Yet when I go to normal bay area startup events, no one there has any any clue that solar is taking off like a rocket ship and their biggest pain points right now are completely solvable with software.
Come join us. In the last few years, the solar industry reached "grid parity", which means that the unsubsidized installed cost is now cheaper than buying power from the grid. That's why this industry is the fastest growing industry in the country. This isn't some subsidy-dependent industry anymore. We work hard and we make real money (while conveniently also saving the planet).
Cool, I have a friend working here http://www.3megawatt.com in Munich. I had few discussions with him about their analytics solution and the solar industry in this regard - very interesting stuff. It looks like a lot of value for the solar industry would be just in copying existing solutions in other sectors into this one. I mean, analytics and finance (accruals) is a (partially) solved problem in many industries, but not in solar. They were now talking to rebuild their software infrastructure in Django, maybe I should join them.
How does it differ from other countries? I've heard Germany's installation costs per watt are about 60% of the US rate, even though they access mostly the same market to procure panels, and that their customer aquisition, marketing costs etc are much lower. I guess some of it has to do with a national feed in tariff that generates a ton of easy inbound leads, but I'd love to hear the subtleties. (what is your startup btw)
Its an interesting proposition, although I'm not sure that you can really make that leap with just solar, wind, and batteries. There is a lot of base load to make up for.
I could see however individual houses become independent of the grid. And that will have tremendous benefits when things like storms hit, no longer knocking out power to residents, simply factories and office buildings and street lights. Presumably with a more simplified infrastructure that could be protected and repaired more easily.
[side note the unexpurgated page had 150+ tracking tools attempt to load according to ghostery! That is a record for me so far.]
We are in desperate, desperate need of more decentralization in our core infrastructures, to the point that this libertarian could see his way clear to agreeing not to grouse about subsidies for technology that's already cost-effective if it will accomplish more decentralization. As nifty as the "big solar plants" are in some ways, installing 10,000 acres of solar in the middle of the desert isn't really "decentralization".
(I was much grumpier about subsidizing things that couldn't stand on their own economically as there's a lot more economic waste and false investments that occur, but if solar can already stand on its own two feet and the we collectively tip some money into the kitty to get it out there faster the waste is far less, and the societal benefit far greater.)
It's just about do-able, people have done studies on total de-carbonisation that would involve shifting all cars to electric or bio-based fuels for example, not just the electricity generation side of things. The big hold up is finding political will to stop subsidizing fossil fuels and let the new tech compete on a free market basis (not the free- but lets pretend externalities don't exist market), but the ball has started rolling now so things should be interesting over the next decade as public opinion and lobbyist dollars find themselves shifting more to one side.
Elon was asked about a replacement CEO in late 2014, he stated that there currently was no one in mind, and that the plan was to stay on as CEO till volume production of Model 3 and the Gigafactory, and then evaluate [1]. Of course, he may not have been at liberty to say the person in mind.
Electricity will become cheaper thanks to renewable energies (Solar, Wind...) and energy storage improvements (Batteries). But, I think we should point out that those energies represent large investments at first. For instance, building solar electricity plants is very expensive, the same way as Wind power.
Germany is a good example: they stopped nuclear plants to increase their renewable energy production but costs of electricity increased a lot there.
I'd say electricity costs will go up first (because of high investments) and then will decrease.
The cost of solar production is highly dependent on geography, and in some places, like California, Nevada or Arizona deserts cheap land and good weather allows for massive economies of scale https://gigaom.com/2015/01/20/a-special-report-the-rise-of-a...
But there's no turning back - once the newcomer into space gets a massive economic advantage by having access to cheap energy, they attract industries that are relying on cheap energy, and soon those market participants overrun their competitors whose cost structure includes higher energy costs.
Its waiting on room temp superconductors I believe. Otherwise you have to cool a 1000km of cable and of course the material needs to be reasonable ductable. And dont hold your breath on room temperature superconductors, it may not even be possible...
Anyone done a DIY solar installation recently? any links/pointers? What's the cheapest way to put this together? Are microinverters worth it? I am thinking of starting with a few 250w panels on my outhouse
You need to start by understanding your needs. What are you going to use the power for? Is this a year-round or seasonal application? What is your climate like? Are your rooftops structurally suitable and do they face the equator? If not, what land is available, what direction does it face, and is it shade-free? Do you also have other sources of electricity; if so, what are they? Do you plan to keep/expand/get rid of them? Will your PV installation be tied into a larger electrical system (and/or the grid) or provide standalone power for specific loads? How much power will you need, and how will your usage be distributed throughout the day/year? Are permits and/or inspections required where you live? If so, which parts will you DIY vs. hire out, and what research, supplies, tools, and materials will be required to do the work in a way that will pass inspection?
Once you have some answers there, you can start figuring out what kind of equipment could meet your needs and pricing it out. "I want solar!" is not a constructive way to look at anything; it's a great way to waste a bunch of money on something that will end up not giving you what you want/need. Asking here is not the way to get this done; realistically you have at least several dozen hours of research ahead of you, much more if you are off-grid or really want to do every piece of the work yourself.
No particular tips on how to do it; but at least make sure you don't put too many in serial if you're at all concerned about fire safety.
My father was once involved in a big lawsuit over fires caused by faulty junction boxes and he swore he'd never let the total wattage exceed say 500, max 800, or so watts for panels installed on a house.
After all; it only takes a single slightly faulty contact and you essentially have an improvised arc welder on the top of your roof.
[+] [-] snowwrestler|10 years ago|reply
I remember when calling long distance was a big deal. It cost real money, and multiple big companies specialized in it and competed fiercely. Today for Internet connected folks, long distance phone calling is too cheap to meter.
It's not just that the price fell, although it did. It's that better technologies came along--cell phones and Internet--and the remaining cost of long distance just become embedded in them.
It's interesting to think of where energy generation or storage costs might become embedded. Homes? Cars? Appliances?
How much energy storage do you have in your house right now? Looking around right now, I've got 3 laptops, 2 tablets, and a smartphone in view. We're slowly accumulating watt-hours, just as a side effect of buying mobility.
[+] [-] IkmoIkmo|10 years ago|reply
That's why the whole Tesla car battery and home battery is interesting, because the latest Teslas have about 80000 watt hour batteries, or the equivalent of having 13 thousand iPhone batteries in your garage, and the powerwall batteries they sell each have the capacity of about 1500 iPhones. If everyone had such an electric car and battery pack, intermittent sustainable energy would make a lot more sense, but phones and tablets aren't going to play any role in energy storage. Laptops with 100 wh+ batteries could play a tiny tiny role, but that market is all going fanless on ever more powerful and efficient mobile chips, so I don't see that happening either.
[+] [-] Consultant32452|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sitkack|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] adventured|10 years ago|reply
As of July 3rd, US crude oil production was 9.6 million barrels per day. The highest in at least 32 years. This is one year after the price of oil began to plunge. Since December / January, when oil particularly got cheaper, US crude production has expanded another 5%.
In fact, the Saudis have accomplished the effect of forcing US companies to innovate and make fracking even cheaper. What people seem to fail to understand about fracking, is that it's a shift in technology, not a temporary blip. It will continue to get cheaper and more efficient, and it will spread globally, leading to a wave of oil for decades. Just wait until you see what US frackers can do in Mexico with a liberalized oil market there.
As an example of technology making fracking cheaper, meet re-fracking:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-06/refracking...
[+] [-] simonebrunozzi|10 years ago|reply
It also had the effect of making fracking too expensive, but I bet they didn't care much about it.
[+] [-] copsarebastards|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] diafygi|10 years ago|reply
However, strangely, much of the startup community remains uninvolved. Why? The solar industry is expected to grow by 100-200x over the next 30-40 years[4], even when it's already a $14 billion dollar industry[5]. And yet, this week in SF, there's a huge solar conference[6], and I personally know most of the software companies there (there's only a few dozen of us). Why isn't more of the startup community coming in an "disrupting" solar software along side us? We just got $100k in free money from the DOE. We closed a seed round in less than 6 weeks. Pretty much every solar software company we know (including us) is hiring. Yet when I go to normal bay area startup events, no one there has any any clue that solar is taking off like a rocket ship and their biggest pain points right now are completely solvable with software.
Come join us. In the last few years, the solar industry reached "grid parity", which means that the unsubsidized installed cost is now cheaper than buying power from the grid. That's why this industry is the fastest growing industry in the country. This isn't some subsidy-dependent industry anymore. We work hard and we make real money (while conveniently also saving the planet).
[1]: http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/reducing-non-hardware-costs
[2]: http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/soft-costs
[3]: http://www.solarindustrymag.com/e107_plugins/content/content...
[4]: http://www.pvsolarreport.com/the-next-internet/
[5]: http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-industry-data
[6]: https://www.intersolar.us/en/home.html
[+] [-] crdoconnor|10 years ago|reply
What pain points are those?
[+] [-] kfk|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] IkmoIkmo|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sremani|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kstenerud|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] _vn5r|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ChuckMcM|10 years ago|reply
I could see however individual houses become independent of the grid. And that will have tremendous benefits when things like storms hit, no longer knocking out power to residents, simply factories and office buildings and street lights. Presumably with a more simplified infrastructure that could be protected and repaired more easily.
[side note the unexpurgated page had 150+ tracking tools attempt to load according to ghostery! That is a record for me so far.]
[+] [-] jerf|10 years ago|reply
(I was much grumpier about subsidizing things that couldn't stand on their own economically as there's a lot more economic waste and false investments that occur, but if solar can already stand on its own two feet and the we collectively tip some money into the kitty to get it out there faster the waste is far less, and the societal benefit far greater.)
[+] [-] ZeroGravitas|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] coryrc|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] decasteve|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] coob|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] beltex|10 years ago|reply
[1] https://youtu.be/FE4iFYqi4QU?t=7m25s
[+] [-] JohnyLy|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] prostoalex|10 years ago|reply
Countries with sunny deserts do get an economic edge on this one though compared to overcast, densely populated countries http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-15/acwa-power...
But there's no turning back - once the newcomer into space gets a massive economic advantage by having access to cheap energy, they attract industries that are relying on cheap energy, and soon those market participants overrun their competitors whose cost structure includes higher energy costs.
[+] [-] copsarebastards|10 years ago|reply
I think that's part of what Musk is saying will no longer be true in the near future.
[+] [-] sintaxi|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] obstinate|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dlitz|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jdjdps|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jerf|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dharma1|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fredkbloggs|10 years ago|reply
Once you have some answers there, you can start figuring out what kind of equipment could meet your needs and pricing it out. "I want solar!" is not a constructive way to look at anything; it's a great way to waste a bunch of money on something that will end up not giving you what you want/need. Asking here is not the way to get this done; realistically you have at least several dozen hours of research ahead of you, much more if you are off-grid or really want to do every piece of the work yourself.
[+] [-] mtrimpe|10 years ago|reply
My father was once involved in a big lawsuit over fires caused by faulty junction boxes and he swore he'd never let the total wattage exceed say 500, max 800, or so watts for panels installed on a house.
After all; it only takes a single slightly faulty contact and you essentially have an improvised arc welder on the top of your roof.