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1experience's comments

1experience | 4 years ago | on: Shorting Bitcoin

This is how to lose money with shorting 101.

You should never base your shorts on solely rational points (long-term rational points, even worse) when going short on bubbly assets.

Things like "Bitcoin is not a viable payment method, it's centralized, possibly manipulated, fueled by the greater fool" is not a valid shorting motive unless you have a triggering event caused by your aforementioned rational point.

1experience | 4 years ago | on: Why People Feel Like Victims

"I’ve had it so good in this world, you know. The odds were fifty-to-one against me being born in the United States in 1930. I won the lottery the day I emerged from the womb by being in the United States instead of in some other country where my chances would have been way different.

Imagine there are two identical twins in the womb, both equally bright and energetic. And the genie says to them, “One of you is going to be born in the United States, and one of you is going to be born in Bangladesh. And if you wind up in Bangladesh, you will pay no taxes. What percentage of your income would you bid to be the one that is born in the United States?” It says something about the fact that society has something to do with your fate and not just your innate qualities. The people who say, “I did it all myself,” and think of themselves as Horatio Alger – believe me, they’d bid more to be in the United States than in Bangladesh. That’s the Ovarian Lottery." ― Warren Buffett

1experience | 4 years ago | on: Starting a crypto project

There is no rationale here to be found, You are comparing an insane bubble (Doge, etc.) to a regular bubble (Avalanche, etc.).

People have completely lost the value of money, do you realize how much money is $4.5 billion?

In 2007 Apple had a market cap of 80 billion and a P/E ratio of 26, it had revolutionary products on the market that were clearly going to change an entire industry while at the same time bringing in steady revenue, can you imagine how much it would be worth today in this bubble?

1experience | 5 years ago | on: As U.S. schools shuttered, student mental health cratered, survey finds

Please tell me where are all these deaths in Sweden, Belarus, Brazil, Florida...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-...

So you're telling me that in places like Brazil more people are being traumatized by deaths in overloaded hospitals compared to Westerners (who are less traumatized) thanks to a year of isolation? uhmm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcAYObnlehE&t=2623s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnKke19Ow8Q

1experience | 5 years ago | on: Summary: The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg

This summary is amazing, I remember reading the book and it was unnecessarily long with many unneeded chapters, I really wish non fiction writers would keep the fluff down and focus on the central thesis of their books.

1experience | 5 years ago | on: Calling for benefit–risk evaluations of Covid-19 control measures

> I think this was a valid mindset last March when we had little trusted data

Ordinary people had little trusted data.

Experts had data from cruise ships showing a low infection fatality rate [1], data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2], data showing that the average Covid victim is 80 years old and has three comorbidities[3].

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w [2] https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...

1experience | 5 years ago | on: Highest rates of teen bullying are between friends and friends-of-friends: study

Yes, the analogy between school and prison is spot on.

In everyday life, if an environment/person bothers you, you can simply CHOOSE to deal with it if it's worth it or avoid it if it's not. Schools and prisons are closed systems where the social hierarchy inevitably gets established and constantly contested.

As someone who has been on both sides of the game telling kids not to fight back is counterproductive. If the situation is handled correctly it can become an incredible opportunity for growth.

1experience | 5 years ago | on: How this Ends

Young people have absolutely no power in this society, the fact that the world has come to a halt for a disease with an IFR of 0.25% while entire generations face economic, mental, social crisis should speak volumes.
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