AncientTree's comments

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction

High-speed rail is often slower and definitely more expensive than regular rail, if Europe is any guide.

Rail is best used for freight.

Autonomous busses and cars (electric) are the best long-term solution for travel.

The best approach is simply to enact a Carbon Tax and let the market figure it out.

We would be better off promoting mass-contraception to the developing world and halting land clearance in terms of massive targeted CO2 reductions.

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: Containment gets harder every day we delay

Korea will have to remain on alert, forever, as their population has no established immunity. A vaciine may never come - there is no influenza vaccine (it mutates every season).

Plus, there are grim, yet economic, benefits if the sickest and most elderly die from Coronavirus, in the form of long-term savings on pensions and healthcare. This should be taken into account in strategic national planning.

The UK approach seems the most sensible - keep the economy and society functioning, and recommend that the most vulnerable practice self-isolation. Better to isolate those who are not participating in the productive economy (ie. the sick and elderly) than the entirety of the population.

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

And if the worst case occurs, with millions of elderly and immunocompromised dying, there are billions in potential savings in pensions and old-age healthcare, as well as improvements in housing affordability and overall reductions in national CO2 emissions.

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

Agreed, we need to just push onwards and all will be back to normal in 12 months.

The facts remain that children, young adults, adults and even elderly without comorbidities will survive. Deaths are still restricted to those with existing health problems, particularly the elderly.

From an economic perspective, this is the perfect pandemic. We should maintain all schooling and social activities to spread the virus as far and rapidly as possible, to gain herd immunity as quickly as possible. The vulnerable can self-isolate.

The savings in pensions and long-term healthcare for the elderly, as well as a reduction in housing prices owing to the deceased estates, will promote an economic boom that may even - in the long term - offset the short terms costs we are facing right now.

You can imagine a situation where the USA has survived the virus and gained mass immunity, with 5% of its elderly population perishing along the way, giving the USA a long-term advantage due to lower payroll taxes, versus Europe who shut down early, have continual flareups due to lack of herd immunity, and continue with a heavy taxation burden due to elderly losses of only 0.5%.

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: Intel is changing the future of power supplies with its ATX12VO spec

The big advantage could be finally moving the PSU out of the case, and having it as just an external power brick. This will make systems significantly lighter and smaller (and thus more portable), take heat out of the case, and improve airflow.

You can already buy 330w laptop chargers - just beef them up and you could easily run a mid-grade gaming PC.

https://www.amazon.com/Dell-Adapter-DA330PM111-ADP-330AB-332... You can already buy

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: A False Economy Powered by Ads and Lies

The solution is simpler than that which is to remove high-denomination notes from circulation and provide all citizens with free bank accounts. Eventually, just move to cashless transactions entirely.

The bigger problem in countries like Greece though is that the tax burden is immense, for example the sales tax rate is 24%. This creates a huge incentive to avoid the tax. This windfall is then either wasted on corruption or spent on healthcare and pensions for the elderly - ie. not services that the taxpayer can immediately or personally access.

Sales tax, company tax, and flat income tax rates around 10%, with no payroll taxes, seem like a better and more sustainable way to go. Flat taxes in Eastern Europe have actually seen tax payments and compliance go up, even with lower and non-progressive rates.

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: We need to take CO2 out of the sky – an overview of climate tech

My biggest concern about CO2 is the cognitive impact it has on humans - at levels 800ppm and higher, mental performance is impacted. It will take a while for the atmosphere to reach this level (hopefully it never does), but it is common inside houses and offices. As atmospheric CO2 rises, it becomes more difficult to ventilate buildings, and human mental performance degrades.

In terms of geoengineering, it seems like these two are our best bets:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injectio... to prevent runaway warming. As a side effect, the dispersed sunlight helps plant growth. Solar power generation is negatively impacted though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization to sequester CO2. As a side effect, marine life and fish stocks would be boosted by the greater plankton food supply.

In any case it seems absolutely bonkers that we are still selling fossil-fueled-vehicles and building coal power plants when we clearly have the technology and capability to replace both of them.

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

The annual death rate in the USA is 2.8m. The virus will spread throughout the biosphere and become a standard part of the human virus paradigm, like the common cold or flu.

The best than can be done is to manage and stage its extent as much as possible, to avoid overwhelming healthcare services all at once. The Japanese seem to have the same idea.

Cases should be triaged and medical resources dedicated to those aged 50 and lower, who are still working and in generally good health.

The US pension system across many states, companies, and the federal Government itself is unsustainable, so this virus may be the key to bring those programs back into proper operation. Cities like Chicago will face a huge relief as Coronavirus spreads and lessens their pension burden.

Additionally, the housing freed up could be used by younger people and families, dramatically improving the quality of life for much of society. Inheritances could be used by younger generations to invest in businesses or upgrade personal living situations.

Lower pension and healthcare expenditure will allow lower taxes, perhaps allowing the elimination of payroll taxes.

The deaths will be tragic but from a purely economic perspective Coronavirus looks like a major opportunity for Western societies to de-age. We are very lucky that unlike other Pandemics, this virus is restricted to the sick and elderly, and barely impacts the young and healthy, unlike say the Spanish Flu.

AncientTree | 6 years ago | on: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

The 2% figure is misleading, mortality is overwhelmingly restricted to the elderly and particularly those with existing health problems:

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE*

Cardiovascular disease 10.5%

Diabetes 7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%

Hypertension 6.0%

Cancer 5.6%

no pre-existing conditions 0.9%

AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8%

70-79 years old 8.0%

60-69 years old 3.6%

50-59 years old 1.3%

40-49 years old 0.4%

30-39 years old 0.2%

20-29 years old 0.2%

10-19 years old 0.2%

0-9 years old no fatalities

Shutting down the economy and quarantining whole areas will do more harm than the virus. Tens of thousands of Americans already die of the flu and Coronavirus us just a very virulent form of that.

I realise that its grim to talk about, but there may actually be economic benefits from the very sickest dying from the virus and thus relieving the burden of large pension and healthcare expenses.

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