Changu's comments

Changu | 8 years ago | on: PhantomJS: Archiving the project, suspending development

I do lightweight web automation via Chromiums "Snippets". It is super nice to work that way because you see on screen what happens and can check everything realtime in the console. Only problem is that they dont survive page loads. So when my snippet navigates to a new url I have to trigger it again manually. What would be a good way to progress from here so I can automate across pages?

Changu | 8 years ago | on: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

The approach I use here is to not see Bitcoin as a currency, but as a money sending service like Visa. The incentive to buy BTC is that one wants to use the system. How much is the usage of the system worth? It is the transaction fees. They reflect what people are willing to pay to use the system.

Changu | 8 years ago | on: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

That seems to imply that the BTC market cap is the result of speculation. Of people holding BTC because they think some greater fool will buy them later.

Personally I believe in efficient markets. I think the $200B is the best guess the market came up for the intrinsic value of BTC. Independent of speculation.

My feeling is similar to yours though. That BTCs value is closer to $200m then to $200B.

Changu | 8 years ago | on: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

I was hoping to read his thoughts on Bitcoins market cap of about 200 Billion Dollar.

I have the theory, that the value of a cryptocurrency is equal to the sum of transaction fees people will spend in the future, discounted for inflation.

Currently Bitcoin users pay about $5m per day on transaction fees. That is $1.82B per year. At this rate, it would take 109 years to reach those $200B.

So by that logic, the market predicts a strong future for BTC. Either it will be around for very long or its usage will grow.

Personally, I am skeptical. I think there will be too much competition. It might be hard to replicate the BTC ecosystem but I don't think it is $200B hard. Especially since there will be rapid changes to the whole crypto space in the coming years (offchain transactions, alternative mining forms etc).

I expect we will end up with a currency that does not need mining at all. I think we will end up with a currency that uses signed transactions that are simply broadcasted. The receiver asks a bunch of trusted nodes "Is this a double spend?" and if they reply "no" then the payment is accepted.

That is simple, instantaneous and free. And has almost no real life downsides compared to Bitcoin.

Changu | 8 years ago | on: Meltdown and Spectre Linux kernel status

    If your Linux systems are running a normal Linux
    distribution, go update your kernel. They should
    all have the updates in them already.
I use Linux Mint and have not seen any recent kernel updates.

Which kernel version is considered safe?

Changu | 8 years ago | on: Google's response to the European Commission fine

The big question is: Do we want Google to grow into a black hole that sucks in all data on planet earth and leaves no room for small companies?

I for one don't want that. I like startups. Let them do the shopping comparison. Let them do all kinds of stuff. Don't let the giants swallow everything.

Changu | 8 years ago | on: Ask HN: Why does visual programming suck?

I think the reason is that text is already a highly optimized visual way to represent information. It started with cave paintings and evolved to what it is now.

"Please go to the supermarket and get two bottles of beer. If you see Joe, tell him we are having a party in my house at 6 tomorrow."

It took me a few seconds to write that. Imagine I had to paint it.

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