Lukman | 11 months ago | on: Google is winning on every AI front
Lukman's comments
Lukman | 5 years ago | on: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies
I don't see how you get close to 3X more deadly than the flu. If 14% of New York state residents have been infected, 20M population, 15000 deaths + another 3000 that are infected now and will die (this disease takes a long time to kill people) you get an IFR of 0.64. If the IFR for flu is 0.05, that makes covid 12X more deadly than the flu.
Lots of people reporting an IFR of 0.5 based on the NY serological data; that is "right censoring" the deaths. It's got to be a bit higher than that. Either way you have covid with 10X the infection fatality rate of the flu. If worst flu years have IFR of 0.1 then covid is still 5X worse than the worse flu seasons. And as contagious as the worst flu seasons too.
So twice as contagious as the flu, 10X deadly. Much more likely to put you in the hospital, and thus overwhelm the hospital system, causing many ancillary deaths. This NYTimes article sums it up: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well/live/coronavirus-doc...
At the peak in NY, hospitals stopped seeing heart attacks and strokes, because those people were too afraid to go to the hospital. Many of those people died at home, as supported by the overall death rates in NY.
The narrative put out there by those that look at the recent serology results and say "this proves that this disease was really just a bad flu all along; we can reopen the economy without fear" is just not supported by the data. An IFR of 0.64 and hospitalization rate of double that, like 1.2%, for a disease this contagious, shuts down the economy until we get a vaccine or effective treatment or a Korea-like testing/tracing regime in place.
And one more thing: the Great Depression was great for public health. https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290
Yes suicides go up. But this is more than compensated for by other benefits. Overall, people may well be much healthier in a depressed economy. We will certainly see a decline in car accidents.
Lukman | 6 years ago | on: You Probably Should Be Wearing a Face Mask If You Can
There are no masks available to the public now. Realistically if you don't already have a mask your only option is to make one, which is not hard. Go to YouTube and find a video. A couple layers of cotton can work and is much better than nothing, at stopping your droplets from spreading if you sneeze or cough.
If you already have a mask wear it when you go out. No health care worker wants your mask. Wear goggles too.
And yes masks help prevent respiratory infection which is why health care workers wear them.
Stop with the "you shouldn't be wearing one" nonsense. It is false and dangerous.
Lukman | 7 years ago | on: Relation between alcohol consumption in midlife and dementia in late life
Lukman | 7 years ago | on: Relation between alcohol consumption in midlife and dementia in late life
Lukman | 8 years ago | on: Ask HN: How do you teach you kids about computers and coding?
Lukman | 8 years ago | on: A Compositional Framework for Reaction Networks
Lukman | 8 years ago | on: Scientific Realism in the Age of String Theory (2007) [pdf]
Lukman | 9 years ago | on: Virtual Apple II – Apple II and Apple IIgs games ready to play in the browser
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/activegs/nhndampaj...
Lukman | 9 years ago | on: Misophonia: Scientists crack why eating sounds can make people angry
Lukman | 9 years ago | on: Misophonia: Scientists crack why eating sounds can make people angry
Lukman | 9 years ago | on: Misophonia: Scientists crack why eating sounds can make people angry
Lukman | 9 years ago | on: Misophonia: Scientists crack why eating sounds can make people angry
Lukman | 9 years ago | on: The greatest role of Bill Murray’s life has been playing Bill Murray
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/w...
It would decide arbitrarily not to finish tasks and suggest that I do them. It made simple errors and failed to catch them.