abcampbell's comments

abcampbell | 9 years ago

Seems like the kind of questions Twitter was designed for no? Has anyone asked?

abcampbell | 9 years ago

Why doesn't someone just ask him why he's giving the money.

He's participating the democratic process, would be interested to hear his rationale rather than a bunch of speculations about what he may or may not believe.

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: Former employee sues startup for financials in order to value granted stock

am saying it's an open question now.

so people can, and will, and should, ask

this also calls into question the general practice of "forfeit right X to get benefit Y" that appears common

In cases where "benefit Y" is actually "right Y", then it raises the question of whether these agreements are valid.

I don't know if that's actually happening, but probabilistically would not be surprised if it were - just given the legal complexity involved in these documents.

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: I Just Drove Eight Hours on Tesla Autopilot

"Consider this: If a Toyota driver had standard cruise control set for 70 miles per hour on the highway and failed to take over and reduce speed for a 25 mph turn, would we blame the cruise control for the resulting crash? Relinquishing full control to Autopilot is no different."

That's why Toyota calls is cruise control and not autopilot

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: Central bank digital currency: the end of monetary policy as we know it?

This is interesting, but I don't understand why the existence of CB coin would necessarily lead to traditional bank accounts losing their status as means of exchange.

Money is whatever other people will accept as money.

CBcoin accounts could be more stable form of money (though as many emerging markets show, it's not like central banks are always risk-free), but that doesn't mean it would crowd out all other forms. On the contrary, just seems like a return to fractional-reserve gold standard, where instead of gold, people use CBcoins...

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: Growing Unease as British Mutual Funds Block the Exit Doors

Maybe in theory.

But in practice they have

1) operational risk - insofar as they are the middle-man and so are exposed to investors suing them when the loans go south

2) Implicit credit risk - in that if their loans blow up the losses suffered by their levered investors will likely prevent them from coming back to the market place to 'roll the loans'

3) Explicit credit risk - in that they have invested capital in a subsidiary HF (Cirrix) which buys their loans and is on the hook for the losses (which could flow up to the parent)

http://www.inc.com/business-insider/inside-lending-club-scan... https://personalmoneyservice.com/lending-club-fraud/

Key passage:

"As a result, the company may need to use its own funds to purchase these loans in the coming months."

In other words, LendingClub is going to fundamentally shift its business model from taking no risk to taking on the risk of borrowers defaulting. The startup sold itself as simply a marketplace, connecting borrowers with investors, but now it is buying its own product. The equivalent would be Airbnb buying up loads of houses to list on its own platform, to keep it growing."

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: Why Brexit Was Not a Mistake

Someone wrote this up better than I could

"With or without tariff issues being resolved — which are actually irrelevant to the access issue — the claim is false. Tariffs do not prevent access to a market. They simply impose a tax on entry. The actual barrier is regulatory conformity — what is known generally as a non-tariff barrier (NTB) or, sometimes, as technical barrier to trade (TBT)."

https://medium.com/@WhiteWednesday/what-s-wrong-with-the-wto...

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: The Daredevil Camera

Someone please give this guy $10m of funding to invent more cool stuff.

Regardless of commercial application, this guy can do #hardtech

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: Palantir Buyback Plan Shows Need for New Silicon Valley Pay System

Yes, if you had the data.

That's why shares that trade openly are called 'public market' shares.

Reading this thread is fun, it's like trying to see Silicon Valley try to reverse engineer something hiding in plain site.

95% of these problems would go away if these companies were forced (by investors or employees) to go public.

abcampbell | 9 years ago | on: Why Brexit Was Not a Mistake

Points for ambition, but after opening the article by saying you disagree with the consensus economic analysis, you pretty much disqualify yourself from having an opinion on the economic analysis...

Britain could and should declare free trade unilaterally with every other nation, whether they reciprocate or not. They would become an incredibly dynamic and prosperous trading hub.

First, not sure if you understand how trading hubs work.*

Second, not sure you are listening to why people think Brexit is bad for the UK economy if you think this is the solution.

The biggest economic risk to the UK from Brexit doesn't come from the fact they now have to renegotiate access to the EU internal market, it comes from the fact that Scotland might decide to go independent.

In turn, that has unleashed a ton of uncertainty for banks like Royal Bank of Scotland that, you know, take deposits and make loans denominated in British pounds to Scottish people.

Even if you could manage the transition across independence, redenomination and recapitalization, the potential shock to credit/liquidity is sufficient that a LOT of babies are likely to get thrown out with that bathwater.

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* It's not really tarrifs that are the big constraints to trade these days, it's stuff like regulations (please no plastic in our baby formula, thx China), IP, 'dumping' etc.

That and the fact that giving nonreciprocal market access would mean you end up spending even more on imports than you receive in income from exports (they already do this...a lot).

Meaning you have to borrow money to finance consumption...until you borrow so much that the rest of the world stops lending you money...

this is (partially) why trading hubs tend to form in places that export a lot vs import a lot.

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World Bank tarrif data: http://bit.ly/293JtWZ Melanin in baby formula: http://bit.ly/29nVRQH

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