aleph_naught's comments

aleph_naught | 3 years ago | on: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

> It is far too early to be calling that a failure.

Any what exactly do you think the end outcome will be when a) it is impossible to stop omicron and b) the CCP isn't ramping up the vaccination effort on the 80+ yr olds?

If live in a tinderbox with frequent lightening strikes, spending billions on firefighting isn't going to change the end result. HK got to 1/3 the US's death rate in __weeks__.

aleph_naught | 4 years ago | on: Apple Watch production delayed as engineers wrestle with quality issues

That's what I thought when it came out initially, but after the series 4 release, I decided to get one, and I use it many many times a day:

* Apple Pay on the watch is the fastest way to pay on any NFC enabled POS; now works on Caltrain as well. * Silent haptic alarm, which doesn't wake up your partner * Passwordless macbook unlock * Automatic phone unlock when using a facemask * Overnight HR measurement, if you want to track how overtrained/rested you are * I use it to open my front door and garage door via siri when coming back from a bike ride or run (I don't need to carry my phone for this). I don't carry keys with me. * Listen to music/podcast while on a run without my phone. * Control media without taking out my phone. * Vectorized maps and gps tracking for running/cycling and uploading to strava (workoutdoors app) * Strava app * Interval timers when at the gym * Easy continuous visibility of air-quality/UV/temp-range/hours-of-sunlight-remaining on my main watch face. Useful information when planning outdoor exercise. * I occasionally do high altitude climbs, and hikes, so I'm looking forward to upgrading to a newer model with continuous elevation readouts and SpO2 readings. * Use it to ping my lost phone * Flashlight when you're in a bind * Navigation while cycling * Pick up calls when you're hands are full and you're phone isn't nearby.

etc etc etc

aleph_naught | 5 years ago | on: Cover Your Tracks

These captchas are used to crowdsource training data for semantic segmentation ML models. By shifting the image around, users statistically fill out the boundaries of objects by selecting which squares include the object. As a result, in many captcha instances, you see objects right at rectangle boundaries.

aleph_naught | 5 years ago | on: We need physical audio kill switches

I got the Modi2/Magni2 set for my HD650s when they originally came out. Total disappointment: pots had static when inc/dec vol, and had balancing issues. The headphone amp on my macbook didn’t suffer from any of that, was indistinguishable in sound quality with a blind test, and was way less hassle. Only difference was that it didn’t get as loud, but since I don’t listen past the macbooks max, I put them in the closet and never looked back.

aleph_naught | 6 years ago | on: Low unemployment isn’t worth much if the jobs barely pay

Historically we've had the opposite problem. Countries tend to move toward austerity at the wrong moment in time, due to political pressures or pressure from debtors. (Though this is much more difficult to navigate when the country's debt is denominated in a foreign currency e.g. Japan with 200%+ debt to gdp which is having a hard time meeting inflation targets vs Argentina).

Even today, the European Central Bank is signaling that it has effectively done all it can do (without permanently harming the banking sector with negative rates), and that it is time to open the doors to fiscal stimulus; but, Germany, which is going through a manufacturing recession, is loath to update their constitution to facilitate fiscal stimulus.

aleph_naught | 6 years ago | on: Low unemployment isn’t worth much if the jobs barely pay

Up until the 80's wages and productivity moved in lock step, and since then wages have flatlined due to a various factors (weakening of unions / globalization).

Furthermore, we are reaching the limits of what monetary stimulus is able to achieve in driving the economic wellbeing of everyday Americans; history has shown that fiscal stimulus is better at that. A decade of easy monetary policy and balance sheet expansion has yielded a large divide in inequality and asset inflation. The non-asset owning working class have effectively been left behind, with now a larger wall to climb in order build relative wealth.

I personally don't think unions and collective bargaining are the best solution, as it can in some cases be overbearing on industry---and the burden can be non-uniformly applied across industries. Also, due to globalization, there is effectively a fixed marginal cost for labor: any inefficiencies will be arbitraged abroad. Even if unions and collective bargaining were the solution, there is no inherent law that labor demand and labor supply will always be near parity---especially with increased automation.

I think the best solution to resolve this, both uniformly and with minimal aggregate complexity, would be expand the Federal's reserves responsibilities into the fiscal space.

The Fed currently has two mandates: low unemployment, and stable currency. I propose a third mandate: wage and productivity parity. This would be facilitated by direct fiscal policy in the form of a floating universal basic income. This would enshrine the fed with ability to affect fiscal policy without politics. The stimulus could be progressive, but would be much more uniform---unlike today's pork projects that have a smaller share of winners.

This coupled with universal health, easing the burden of hiring and firing, consolidation of existing entitlement/social programs, could really open up the economic landscape.

aleph_naught | 7 years ago | on: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle

> This article is one of many where the actual point being made is buried beneath unnecessary and divisive ad-hominem attacks.

This is consistent with his writing style though, at least since Antifragile. I had a hard time getting into Antifragile due to the constant, unending, and unnecessary ad-hominem attacks throughout the text.

aleph_naught | 7 years ago | on: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle

Anecdotally, I would very much agree with this, with an added caveat: there are diminishing returns on mental horsepower after 2 stdevs (e.g. 130 iq). After a certain point obsessiveness separates the wheat from the chaff, by very wide margins. The long-game is underrated.

aleph_naught | 8 years ago | on: Asking members to support journalism, The Guardian raises more revenue than ads

I really like the wikipedia model, but I know it wouldnt work for every outlet. I’ve contributed more to public radio and wikipedia than any other news service subscription.

Ideally, nytimes/wapo/economist would be completely open, and one would be able to ‘donate’ with a single press of the apple pay button.

I prefer that over yet another username password combo + subscription + app echo system I need to maintain.

Or best of both worlds: single click of apple pay button sets a cookie for 30 days of access; sends a courtesy reactivation email with a link in case you clear your cookies.

aleph_naught | 8 years ago | on: Google collects cell tower info even if location services are disabled

Not sure why you are being downvoted, but as someone who did try deleting an appleid, there is no self service way of doing so. Basically ended up removing all possible data; and filling the rest with fake values. Finally I changed the password to some random string. Not sure how much aux/opaque data remains that I could not see (eg location services), but this was secondary throwaway account, so I didnt care much.

aleph_naught | 8 years ago | on: Coders who trade: Wall Street designs its staff for the future

A few questions, if you don't mind answering:

> 400-450k

Where is that in the pay distribution? Near median? Realistically, where, comp-wise, would the average SWE plateau?

How many hours are you guys putting in a week?

What was the interview like? Did they go deep into stats/stochastic-calc/derivates-pricing/etc ?

---

I'm currently in tech, making near the low end of your range. Getting promoted to the next pay scale (Staff SWE) is a lot more difficult. I'd seriously consider jumping to fintech if 400-450 was below median.

aleph_naught | 8 years ago | on: Why physicists still use Fortran (2015)

Just before I left JPL, the SPICE team had announced a plan for a complete rewrite in C++. The SPICE team is exceptionally small (especially considereing how widely used and impactful the software has been). IIRC since the team’s inception, to the time I left, it has been about 4-5 people. Their primary goal has always been stability and correctness over speed. Recalling a conversation with Boris, they have something like 2.5 million lines of test code. So it would take some time to port over. The codebase is probably the most documented I have ever seen, every mathematical deduction is described in great detail.

That being said, as someone who has integrated CSPICE into several C++ and python projects, the modernization would be a very welcome change. The current arch depends far too much on global state, and none of it is threadsafe.

https://naif.jpl.nasa.gov/naif/Toolkit_evolution_R2

aleph_naught | 8 years ago | on: Hackers Are Hijacking Phone Numbers and Breaking into Email, Bank Accounts

Go to: https://myaccount.google.com/signinoptions/two-step-verifica...

And remove SMS from the listing. I currently have 3 2FA mechanisms listed: Security-Key/Yubikey (default), Authenticator App (set on two devices), and Backup codes which I downloaded (and at some point will print and place in a safe deposit box).

Losing access to my two gmail accounts would be a complete nightmare---more so than my bank/brokerage accounts. Some brokerages like TD Ameritrade do not even offer 2FA. In my case, paranoia mode for email accounts is completely warranted.

I really wish U2F becomes the standard across all web services. It seems insane that, in some scenarios, the only barrier against financial ruin is the gullibility of your cell-phone provider's customer service rep.

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