I believe what you're saying is "this time is different."
No, it isn't.[1]
In the ascent phase of the bubble, everyone but uber-bulls is proven wrong. But what matters is whether what is happening today in terms of valuations and capital raising/spending is sustainable. I believe it isn't. AirBnB or Uber or what have you may be a great business, but a great business can be a lousy investment at the wrong price.
So you may continue be right, in the sense that share prices may keep going up, but that doesn't mean investors participating at these levels--or at the quadruple levels you forecast that may indeed come to pass--are being rational.
What's happening now doesn't have to be exactly like it was in 1999, just like what happened in 1999 wasn't exactly like the Nifty Fifty stock bubble of the late 1960s.
PS I had a front-row seat in 1999, as I worked for a well-known VC firm on Sand Hill (still there, still well-known).
[1] http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=240371
No, it isn't.[1]
In the ascent phase of the bubble, everyone but uber-bulls is proven wrong. But what matters is whether what is happening today in terms of valuations and capital raising/spending is sustainable. I believe it isn't. AirBnB or Uber or what have you may be a great business, but a great business can be a lousy investment at the wrong price.
So you may continue be right, in the sense that share prices may keep going up, but that doesn't mean investors participating at these levels--or at the quadruple levels you forecast that may indeed come to pass--are being rational.
What's happening now doesn't have to be exactly like it was in 1999, just like what happened in 1999 wasn't exactly like the Nifty Fifty stock bubble of the late 1960s.
PS I had a front-row seat in 1999, as I worked for a well-known VC firm on Sand Hill (still there, still well-known).
[1] http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=240371