charliemil4's comments

Is there a way to psychologically assess the positive version? Either a DISC or WAIS subtest score or something similar? (I assume a constructive leader?)

> Mail in ballots have been the status quo in many states for decades.

Let’s focus on the battle ground states - not all states - and let’s specifically look at PA for a moment. Because of the electoral college, the statement that nationwide and some states we have used mail in ballots before is irrelevant.

So in 2018 PA had 200k absentee ballots - the mail-in ballot process [0].

In 2016 PA, and specifically Philly, had fewer absentee ballots requested than 2008 or 2012 [1] with around 18k for that metro.

In 2020, 2.6 million mail in ballots were requested 3 weeks before the election [2].

So you tell me, what really looks like the status quo? 2.6m ballots or around 200k. Physics would call this an order or magnitude difference, no? That would directly contradict that mail in ballots for PA are a status quo... and if you looked at the rest of the battle ground states, you will find similar evidence that mail in was never the preferred or dominate form of voting in the metros and battle ground counties.

[0]https://whyy.org/articles/pa-rejected-twice-as-many-absentee...

[1] https://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/11/02/absentee-ballot-re...

[2] https://www.post-gazette.com/local/2020/10/13/Pennsylvania-m...

I don’t think your question is serious, right? Were we in a pandemic that statistically shifted the voter habits of a large amount of Americans from in person, physically gated process to a highly leveragable, mail in ballot process in those years?

As for 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 (there is much power outside of a presidential election) — the bus example is the current status quo and has been used for ages and accepted as the norm — that’s been the “worst/best (whatever your virtue signal tells you) way to influence an election.

If you’d like to have an honest discussion about it - I’d love to, I’m very seriously in the camp that votes are votes and every single one should be counted no matter how they arrived to the polls.

Political language "is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind"

This feels a lot like GP/OP — Orwell’s politics and the English language, let’s metaphor away values and principles to the relativity of sounds from our meat flaps and we will all be free of this human condition

Good fellow, are you really going to say the mail in ballot ratio is the same in a pandemic and not in a pandemic?

That fact is selective on a national scale — if you looked at states, the mail in vs in person ratio is standard deviations away from the norm.

So yeah, totally agree there will be outliers, but it’s definitely a focused sample set that tests the hypothesis well.

It’s complex, with a ton of fractaled placed to hide (day of registrations, first time voters etc)

Wow — definitely not my state, and looking nationwide when talking about states, and counties, is kinda apples to oranges right?

At the moment we really don’t have every piece of information needed to say it’s without a doubt fraudulent — as in how many new voters registered just in time for the election and are not in the denominator.

I’m saying if I were to run an election and have 90% of registered voters turn out for a state, I’d be a hot commodity for many campaigns. That’s an achievement like no other...

I just presented the queries for first amounts of evidence — you have to let the search occur.

If none turn up — whole heartily agree, all clean, send it up to the losers to shut the hell up.

Actually if you look at the counties and Representative races there’s much to cheer about on the side I believe you are implying — it’s just a few locations they are calling into question that swing states, not rep races. .

[0] https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-results-live/house/dq...

I'll post this scenario here again just to get your opinion on it -- you have good thoughts.

Here's the scenario as it plays now: many 'grassroots' movements are reified when a bus comes to pick a group of people up, hands them a template ballot of who to vote for, then brings them to the polls to vote, and finally ends the ride with a dinner and party back at the place.

First, this is legal, at least where I'm from, and is a common way to 'get out the vote.'

Second, this implicitly has a built in rate-limiter because I need the physical voter to be present and to go into the booth alone.

However! This time, I don't have to bus you to the polls... I can host a party at my house to request all of your ballots come to me, where I fill them out and copy your signature from the party / event. OR I do this over the course of a few months, and still have all the ballots directed to me, still copy your signature from the form we filled out together. Or even worse, I use hacked data to request a ballot on your behalf because you never show up to the polls anyway.

To me, that's an extreme vulnerability -- that means beyond it not being rate limited, the physical person is no longer needed to fill out their own ballot. Not only this... there was always the chance someone could go 'off script' and vote for who they wanted for and just get the free meal. Now, they are guaranteed to be the way you wanted because you filled them out.

^ I've known people go on buses to get meals and vote 'off script'

And finally, the reason 'this hasn't happened until now' is because most mail in voting was for absentee voting (in the battle ground states) and never done at this scale where you could have a whole community request ballots to one address almost undetected. (yes this is detectable post-fact, but damage is done and intent is there on both sides.)

Yep. That's what scares me a bit - you don't want to find this out after all the endorphins and emotions solidify sides.

Thanks for having such a great conversation on this --

> I am not seeing how the request system is vulnerable.

Here's the scenario: I obtain your SSN, Name and Address to request your ballot to my address (either in the bussing example through your explicit permission or through the nefarious example like using Equifax 2017-2018 Data), then I fill it in at my address, and then mailed it in.

(Edit: to be clear, you have only provided the information to start the ballot process, or I obtained it nefariously, and submitted a ballot without your presence and pen to paper)

That's not a vulnerability? I guess I have a weird definition... I'm saying that's not what I expect when I hear someone 'voted.'

Can you please cite the states that are all-mail in please? I've been checking SOS websites and have not run across this in the states I've checked...

Edit:

Thank you both (below, too) for the info. Yeah, so for the states that default mail ballots (WA, OR, CO), I don't see an issue as these states have used this method previously.

What I'm focusing on are states that moved from 'vote by mail optional' -- to 'vote by mail, nearly default because of a recent pandemic.' Which changes the nature and security of the Ballot Request System in each of these states.

Normal implicit controls around ballot requests are out of the window in this new 'mail-in majority' culture. Refer to my 'bussing' example above.

Interesting frame -- I see your point.

Very quickly, I'm not speaking to the Ballot Counting System - I'm speaking to the Ballot Request System. The Request requires information that could be obtained from an individual and rerouted to a centralized operation to fill in the ballot for the person.

It is akin to what happens in some states where some folks are bussed to the polls and given a ballot pre-filled by a trusted member in their community and told to follow the ballot template and we will all go get dinner afterward.

However, in the case of the mail in ballot, the physical voter is no longer required, leveraging the efforts of one person beyond the previous systems limitations: i.e. bus size, trip time, etc.

^ Real life example of the previous exploit -- that is legal if done correctly.

Back to the point: the BRS had an implicit control in place previously... as in, if we see a ton of mail in requests in one location, we should probably check that out. Now that control is invalidated because of the pandemic... thus removing an implicit control without recreating a control to achieve parity (the recreated control for me is the queries I laid out above).

> The US doesn't have a voting integrity issue, it has a voting suppression issue.

While I whole heartedly agree, I’m concerned how we arrived here. There have been no new additional controls put in place to ensure a dramatic shift in the voter culture (from majority in person to mail in), did not expose vulnerabilities previously unused.

Great — so let’s just run the queries so I can go to sleep

There was never any “cover” to hide behind — we never really did much mail in voting as a people (absentee mostly).

Now the pandemic is cover enough to hide a few thousand with ease.

Just so you know, that's still an incredible turnout that as a democracy proponent we should emulate throughout the land -- but I also know from local elections... I'm hard pressed to understand how that happened.

We should trust but verify the results. The basis of facts should be settled in the following:

1. Select all ballots that were sent to the same address - or sent to the same Post Office (grouping all PO Boxes by post office). ^ Here you are trying to see if there is systemic voting behaviors out of the ordinary -- i.e. did 10+ ballots go to one address.

2. Select all ballots that were sent to an alternate address than the voter registration. ^ This is a general query -- select a sample set of these and confirm with the registered voter that they did indeed receive a mail in ballot.

3. If above is inconclusive, select all registered voters that requested a mail in ballot against the 2017-2018 Equifax Data to determine if correlations occur.

4. Select all ballots that were the voter did not vote in the last X elections (there are political consultancies that provide information on who NOT to waste your time on because they do not vote), did these people request a mail in ballot? Were these ballots sent to an alternate address?

For clarification [1], if one were armed with a SSN or DL and a previous address, one could request a ballot on behalf of another person AND have that ballot redirected to a location of their choosing... including a PO Box. The form is included here for reference.

[1] https://www.votespa.com/Register-to-Vote/Documents/PADOS_Mai...

EDIT: just so you know, I think both of them did things like this. I want my d%mn democracy back.