chrisyeh | 6 hours ago
chrisyeh's comments
chrisyeh | 2 months ago | on: The Dilbert Afterlife
chrisyeh | 3 years ago | on: I am done. I give up
Nearly all startups fail. They're trying to do something new, and the status quo is one hell of a competitor. Doing nothing is easy and most people's default choice.
Don't jump into entrepreneurship because you're lured in by the potential results; start a company if the process, regardless of the result, is something you enjoy or need.
Back in the early 2000s, after my first failed startup, I tried doing the math.
If only 10% of VC-backed startups succeed (the numbers for bootstrapped startups are even worse) and assuming that I could manage to get VC backing for my idea, and further assuming that each failed attempt to start a company could consume five years of time (you have to account for the time you likely need to spend working for established companies between startups to rebuild your finances after years of below-market pay), and finally assuming that at age 30, I would get four more attempts before I'd be 50 and face increasing ageism that would prevent me from raising money, then the math was simple:
There was a 0.9 X 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9, or 0.66 chance that I'd spend my entire career chasing this dream and never succeed.
I had to get comfortable with this as a default outcome if I wanted to keep going down the entrepreneurship path.
It's a little better if you're starting out at age 20, but even then, 0.9 to the 6th power is still 0.53. In other words, the majority outcome for entrepreneurship, even if you persevere for 30 years, is that you never succeed.
Yet it may still be worth doing because A) I'm sure you think your odds are better than average and B) It's what you really want to do.
chrisyeh | 6 years ago | on: Lambda School’s Misleading Promises
chrisyeh | 6 years ago | on: Ask HN: How Do You Read?
chrisyeh | 6 years ago | on: Evernote Blows Up the ‘Fail Fast’ Gospel
chrisyeh | 6 years ago | on: Evernote Blows Up the ‘Fail Fast’ Gospel
chrisyeh | 8 years ago | on: Bye Bye Bitcoin Bubble
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
Since we can't predict the future, we shouldn't blame those individuals who were unlucky enough to have invested in now-worthless skills. As a society, we need to understand that investing in re-training so that someone can find a new job is far better and less expensive than either putting someone on the dole for the rest of their life, or letting people "die in the streets," which is as nonsensical as it is callous.
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
If he had simply said something along the lines of, "I believe that The Alliance calls for employees to show loyalty to companies, but for companies not to show loyalty to employees" (completely not true, by the way) it would be clear that he was providing his interpretation of our work. As it is, those who don't read the book will take away an impression that is exactly the opposite of what was originally intended. While words are always subject to interpretation by their audience, I object to my words by misinterpreted by another in a major publication.
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
It's like squeezing a tube of toothpaste; squeeze in one place, and the laws of economics cause the paste to come out in another.
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired
The thing is, they are right; their relatively unskilled labor is no longer valuable to the system (especially when equivalent labor is available at a fraction of the price in other countries). Where they are wrong is the belief that isolationist and anti-immigrant policies will restore a happy time when blue collar workers without a college education or special training could have secure, well-paid jobs that would allow them to live a comfortable middle-class existence.
chrisyeh | 10 years ago | on: Congratulations You’ve Been Fired