eagleinparadise's comments

eagleinparadise | 3 months ago | on: Dollar-stores overcharge customers while promising low prices

So I work in commercial real estate, obviously a large private equity influenced industry. I've worked in REPE and in other capacities.

There's degrees of PE. Some good, fine, and some worse.

Take real estate development. It's probably one of the suckiest businesses to be in. I know 3 developers who have committed suicide because when things go wrong, your entire life collapses (you put up all your assets in order to obtain construction loans). The litigation, brain damage, and risks are enormous. Increasingly, the payoff is awful (due to worsening legislation and NIMBYism and worse market condiditions)

However, private equity in development I think is a good thing. When there are investors willing to put this money at risk, we get much needed construction of housing (see Austin, TX where rents are falling off a cliff due to over building).

Now look at Los Angeles, which new permits are literally almost non-existent because LA is one of the most hostile places for developers. You can't make money in LA, so there's no capital available.

Then you end up with "affordable" housing developers adding the only supply at $600-900k/unit costs vs the market rate developer at $300-600k/unit.

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On the other hand, "value add" private equity is much more suspicious. It's more cut throat, easier to end up in crony capitalist situations by operating with a "cut expenses, provide less, make big bucks" model. The people in this world are the kind of guys who have never done anything hard with their hands other than gotten a sore thumb from pounding too hard on their keyboards to adjust their excel model ("Mr. The Model is Always Right") too hard all night long.

This is how we end up with old properties who get flipped 4x each being sold with "upside the seller was too stupid to take advantage of" and ending up in situations where tenants get priced out due to private equity seeking infinite growing returns. Oh and by the way, every previous owner did "lipstick on the pig" jobs because why not try to save costs and make your levered IRR 16% instead of 12%? You cannot show that kind of return when you promised 18%... then it'll make it harder to fundraise your next deal!

This isn't to say that "value add" is a dirty business. We certainly need to balance the incentive to modernize and renovate properties. An d developers overbuilding isn't always a good thing.

So its nuanced. I think people need to fairly give credit that there are both good and bad. The capital efficiency is real and produces real world outcomes since there is a strong financial incentive at the end of the door.

But financial incentives sometimes bump up to issues causing harm in real life, which need to be recognized and called out.

eagleinparadise | 3 months ago | on: YouTube caught making AI-edits to videos and adding misleading AI summaries

I buy into this conspiracy theory, it's genius. It's literally a boiling the frog kind of strategy against users. Eventually, everyone will get too lazy to go through the mental reasoning of judging every increasingly piece of content as "is this AI" as you mentally spend energy trying to find clues.

And over time the AI content will improve enough where it becomes impossible and then the Great AI Swappening will occur.

eagleinparadise | 4 months ago | on: Show HN: Diagram as code tool with draggable customizations

This is awesome. I was looking for exactly this last week. A tool I could prompt AI to come up with an architecture and then be able to pick up manually, but visually not editing the code.

Being able to express a workflow or diagram and then have AI implement would be awesome to have a tight loop.

eagleinparadise | 4 months ago | on: M5 MacBook Pro

Anyone know when to expect the M5 Pros? I am on a base 16gb M1 and struggling hard in daily workloads. I am often running at 20gb of swap memory usage.

I don't really use local LLMs but think 32GB RAM would be good for me... but I am so ready to upgrade but trying to figure out how much longer we need to wait.

eagleinparadise | 7 months ago | on: Ex-Waymo engineers launch Bedrock Robotics to automate construction

I work in commercial real estate.

There are massive amounts of monopoly/duopoly interests in construction. Want to build affordable housing? Well if you are taking public dollars, you have to work with certain vendors which are approved and meet certain qualifications. Guess what, only 2 electrical vendors are approved! And so they work together and act as a racket to hold your project hostage unless you meet them on their terms.

Actually had a call today with an exec with one of the largest construction general contractors and this topic of "we can't do XYZ project [e.g. compete in that type of project type... driving costs down through competition] because we hire ABC union labor and it would screw us and our relations with the unions we work with."

Every developer has a war story of getting burned exactly in some way by being beholden to political or labor issues.

This results in higher costs... which ultimately is one of the main issues among others.

eagleinparadise | 1 year ago | on: TikTok's algorithm exhibited pro-Republican bias during 2024 presidential race

As a center-lefty I cannot believe people are so silly to not be capable of self-reflecting the left's massive blunders.

Do you not remember "DEFUND THE POLICE!"? That is actually insane policy that the entire party got taken over and was forced to follow along with... even Kamala got slammed for it in the 2024 election! One of many things.

So yes, Trump and the far-right have some off-the-wall crazy stuff, but the left does too. Remember your bias. What seems crazy (i.e. abortion restrictions) does not seem crazy to an entire other segment of the country that you don't share the same exact values to.

And your values and things you don't consider crazy may be considered insane by others.

eagleinparadise | 1 year ago | on: OpenAI O3-Mini

Cursor is also very user-unfriendly in providing alternative models to use in composer (agent). There's a heavy reliance on Anthrophic for cursor.

Try using Gemini thinking with Cursor. It barely works. Cmd-k outputs the thinking into the code. Its unusable in chat because the formatting sucks.

Is there some relationship between Cursor and Anthropic, i wonder. Plenty of other platforms seem very eager to give users model flexibility, but Cursor seems to be lacking.

I could be wrong, just an observation.

eagleinparadise | 1 year ago | on: A mole infiltrated the highest ranks of American militias

My family had to evacuate a few times due to fires. One of them, the National Guard was outside my neighborhood helping to coordinate the chaos. I'll never forget seeing Humvees right outside my neighborhood while the sky was blood red and full of smoke. It was like a disaster scene out of a movie, except real life. Not fun as a kid...

We barely were able to find a hotel to go to.

Afterwards, my dad kept 4-6 duffel bags full of water, first aid, clothes, MREs/dry meals, and other gear so if we ever need to get out of the place, we'd be ready.

So yes, it's a good idea to have some supplies ready because you never know.

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