ergodic1's comments

ergodic1 | 2 years ago | on: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

I think you misunderstood. Your claim is:

"The overwhelming majority of conspiracies likes this, especially ones in fundamentally civilian organizations like science labs, don't survive a year if that."

How do you know that the overwhelming majority of conspiracies don't survive a year if that? It's like sampling sick people and concluding that all people are sick. Without an estimate of the number of conspiracies that actually are kept hidden (which to me seems nearly impossible), how could you possibly know the proportion as you claimed?

This seems like a base rate fallacy to me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy

ergodic1 | 2 years ago | on: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

Making the claim that you know the proportion of conspiracies that get reported implies you know the number of conspiracies not reported.

Im not aware of any way you could know that or the relative proportion of each.

Where do you get your certainty here?

ergodic1 | 3 years ago | on: Character.ai

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