I'd much rather prove you right.
I do think email will change (not just new MUAs but improvements to current protocols for more modern use cases) but it will always remain in some form since it is so basic and universal. Your email address is currently your core online identity and it would take a major shift to change that. That alone fortifies email's position psychologically.
I see four main uses for email: 1) communication within a business, 2) communication between businesses, 3) social communication between individuals, and 4) communication between businesses and individuals. Groupware solutions/messaging/etc have tried to replace email for #1 for some time but email is still needed alongside it for communication with the outside world (#2, #4) and because a lot of enterprise software relies on email for their workflows. Social networks have made huge inroads in replacing email for individual to individual communications but their adoption is still not yet universal. I've also personally seen many people default to email after using a social network as an address book-- maybe email is just a more personal method since there is a stronger sense of owning the messages? Or maybe it's easier to check email than keep up to date on several social networks. Finally, as an individual interacting with a business (legit marketing, but also order confirmations, other notifications, etc.) email still is preferred since it is so universal and won't require leaning on another business for them to conduct their own business.
I'd be interested to know if others have a similar taxonomy or if they are aware of better, non-email solutions that can simultaneously cover more of those use cases.
I do think email will change (not just new MUAs but improvements to current protocols for more modern use cases) but it will always remain in some form since it is so basic and universal. Your email address is currently your core online identity and it would take a major shift to change that. That alone fortifies email's position psychologically.
I see four main uses for email: 1) communication within a business, 2) communication between businesses, 3) social communication between individuals, and 4) communication between businesses and individuals. Groupware solutions/messaging/etc have tried to replace email for #1 for some time but email is still needed alongside it for communication with the outside world (#2, #4) and because a lot of enterprise software relies on email for their workflows. Social networks have made huge inroads in replacing email for individual to individual communications but their adoption is still not yet universal. I've also personally seen many people default to email after using a social network as an address book-- maybe email is just a more personal method since there is a stronger sense of owning the messages? Or maybe it's easier to check email than keep up to date on several social networks. Finally, as an individual interacting with a business (legit marketing, but also order confirmations, other notifications, etc.) email still is preferred since it is so universal and won't require leaning on another business for them to conduct their own business.
I'd be interested to know if others have a similar taxonomy or if they are aware of better, non-email solutions that can simultaneously cover more of those use cases.