felixmeziere's comments

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Ask HN: Working in tech for climate?

At GreenGo, we are trying to re-enchant local tourism for Europeans so that they are less inclined to take the plane => changing behaviours, not improving technology. We want to do that by making local destinations more desirable and making figuring out which destinations are accessible with low carbon transportation much easier.

So far we have built an airbnb-like platform (https://www.greengo.voyage) with a host selection component, but we have big plans to differentiate thanks to a recent 1.6M funding round. People who want to embark on this mission don't hesitate to contact me at [email protected] :-)

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade

> You described no other imminent problem.

Not sure why what I described previously is relevant if this assertion is true in itself, however let's double-check this in what I wrote above: "whether its solid and liquid garbage (leading to wiping out 60% of wildlife in 50 years, spilling the phosphorus of our soils into the sea -making them sterile and killing life in the sea- etc etc), or gas garbage (typically greenhouse gases)", "all serious scientific reports (IPCC, https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-bound... and others) say that we are currently depleting earth's resources much faster than it can renew them and destabilising many natural systems like climate/life etc to irreversible points" <= are these not imminent problems? Actually the main problems I've been describing in this post are precisely not climate change, to try and de-center the debate from just this, I'm not sure how you have been reading this...

> to your 1), food supply is a moot point as population will stagnate. The West often overproduces as it stands and is poised to reduce food waste.

Looking at how things currently work is a very bad indicator: since we are depleting resources faster than they can regenerate themselves (earth overshoot day was a few days ago), if we keep doing things as we are doing right now, even with constant population, even with a bit of improvement from technology, even with current overproduction, the food system WILL collapse. My point is: in all matters environment, the current way we do things leads us to collapse even if everything remains constant.

>to your 2), we're nowhere near depletion of resources, and there's no reason to believe the average person's purchasing power will not only greatly increase to allow for inordinate amount of consumption, but that it would outpace technological innovation which minimizes and recycles materials.

This is just not true, wether we stay on a carbon-powered society or if we transition towards a battery/renewables-powered society. And again, there is no need to account for future "increases of things", things are bad enough at the current rate.

> Fusion, to the extent.... The amount of energy person has not increased in the last several decades in developed countries.

> "More and more people" necessarily ends at "all of them".

Absolutely. But don't worry, earth will have burnt long, long, long before even half of the world's population has accessed American middle class levels of comfort, so don't worry about getting to "all of them".

> Technology to reduce is in it's infancy.

What makes you think you can bet on technology reaching levels to reduce it that are acceptable? What if we miss the target and collapse because of this bet? It's a risky one...

> Necessity is the mother of invention. These externalities were never much of concern to the oligarchic, financial and political classes - that is changing.

The necessity has been here for decades but nothing has been done, again, I wouldn't bet too much on the fact that the effect of this is going to be enough to compensate our hunger for freely-available resource extraction and depletion.

> We know we can make it by limiting population growth.

I don't know which credible source on the matter says this but certainly most don't. Sources say that much more than just limiting population growth is needed to make it.

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

1) Energy is the limiting factor IF we decide to do different things than we have done so far. So far what we have done with energy is mainly deplete and destroy things. In other words: we are very clumsy in the way we control matter, we cause tremendous side effects with our actions that are going to end up swallowing us back into the abyss if we don't change.

2) Energy being the limiting factor is in itself a huge problem, given the amount of energy your problem requires: the amount of energy required to get the original quality raw materials back from an iPhone is orders of magnitude bigger than the one that was needed to extract them from nature in the first place. It seems irrational to bet on this as a means for getting to a sustainable model in the short term (30-50 years).

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Agreed about the fact that collective action will be the solution. But about resources it is true that we can harvest them in a less destructive manner, will that be enough? Or do we also need to harvest less of them?

The gap we need to bridge is to harvest in such a less destructive manner that 1) they can regenerate themselves at the same rate as we harvest them, making our civilisation actually sustainable 2) they don't harm us directly indeed.

Can we bridge that gap by harvesting in a less destructive manner?

1) How is the phosphorus - vital for our current food system - that we harvest in mines concentrated for us during billions of years going to regenerate? Same for oil, gas, rare metals, all the silicon and metal that we disperse in our devices etc etc going to regenerate themselves? Should we bet on our ability to figure that out in the next 30-50 years? 2) so far the rate at which we harm ourselves due to the amount of garbage we throw at nature (i.e. everything we make, build and reject) has only increased with progress. Should we bet we are going to reverse that just with technology in the next 30-50 years?

If we lose the bet, the consequences are never seen in history.... I'd rather bet on more reliable methods to survive...

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Everyone tells themselves stories. Like « what’s cool in life is to try and be a billionaire so I can get a private jet and everybody treat me like a king », or, at the level of a country « we should build entire new cities and airports and stimulate growth to increase GDP which is the main metric measuring our success » or, if you are an economist: “what nature has concentrated for us for free for millions of years, like oil, clean air, water, sand for construction etc, is free”.

I’m not talking about telling stories to people but about changing theses stories they already tell themselves that have been implanted into them by a system

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Our ability to transform matter at always bigger scales and rates, which is proportional to the energy we master, is what has driven the current environmental crisis (were not all the imminent existential threats are climate change, although climate change is the most obvious one).

If we keep the same consumerist and expansionist culture and add more energy to the mix (even if it’s climate-friendly energy), i.e. more capacity to extract resources deeper and deeper, become more dependent on them and disperse them in our constructions, devices, ground, water and atmosphere, what do you think will happen?

Energy will be key in amortizing the pains of de-growth, but de-growth will happen on a planet with finite resources, whether we want it or not.

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

https://www.amazon.fr/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp...

Using the past to try and predict the future, in particular unusual and impactful events is a reliable way to constantly miss the main events of history.

Also there is no equivalent to the current disaster claim… and contrary to previous ones you can already observe the beginning of the effects of the current one… even though we are just at the beginning of its exponential-driven effects.

Long story short: that’s fine if you are still skeptical we’ll start working on it and in 5-10 years the people who are still skeptical will join us once they are more convinced by what’s happening in the world, down to their neighborhood.

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Absolutely agree, I didn’t want people to fixate on this fact so I preferred focusing on the positive and not mention it, but technology alone without deciding collectively how to repurpose it (this is a huge philosophical/cultural change where we need to decide together that black Friday and going to space for fun are lame, for example) is not going to be the solution.

As you said so far we have observed it has only made the problem worse, year after year after year! And with the little margin we have left, it’s irrational to take the bet it’ll change by itself and just “improving”.

felixmeziere | 3 years ago | on: Climate endgame: exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Amazing. I wish there were more discussions about this most important topic on HN, and more generally on describing how we are depleting earth’s resources and dispersing them everywhere, transforming it into a giant pile of garbage (gaseous garbage in the case of GHG). Sadly, climate change is not even the only imminent threat, when 60% of vertebrae have disappeared in 50 years for example, among many others…

We need to invent a new storytelling for society to have an organized energetic and material de-growth, so that we don’t have to undergo a disorganized one, forced upon us by nature, that would be orders of magnitude worse.

Technology can be a huge help in organizing this de-growth, so I guess HN could be a great forum for collectively imagining how to do it!

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