gaukes's comments

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: The Fed now owns nearly 1/3 of all U.S. mortgages

The money they’re printing isn’t being circulated because people are keeping it in their bank accounts and reducing spending. I think we’re in for something when things return to normal.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

I’ve seen this a lot with professors of industry-focused business schools in universities. I think they’re either getting funding / paid or using the connections to pull strings.

These professors usually consult with a lot of government organizations and older companies. If you can make these professors your corporate shill, I guess it’s good marketing.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Things the most successful people I know struggle with to be happy

Narcissism isn’t necessarily characterized by strength even though we imagine the quintessential narcissist people to be “strong” and “driven”. That may be true in their professional lives but not personal.

Narcissists are driven by external validation and appearance, yes. So much so that they forget the people most important to their lives are humans too, not tools or ornaments of achievement. When these relationships sour, there’s a lot of self-doubt, not about the achievements, but if the trade offs are really worth it in the end.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Things the most successful people I know struggle with to be happy

A lot of these seem tied to narcissism in some way. Not that it’s a bad thing but there are a lot of secondary effects of prioritizing ones “success” over all other things like relationships, friendships, mental health, etc.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing (2008) [pdf]

Well, they wouldn't be looking for Earth specifically, they'd be looking for more resources which are everywhere. An intelligent and energy-hungry enough species would want to harness the power of every sun it can reach.

That growth would be exponential because acquiring resources provides more energy which allows them to acquire more resources even faster.

If an intelligent species doubled the number of stars they control every 2 million years, they'd have every star in the milky way in around 50 million years.

That's still like 0.2% the lifetime of the galaxy.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing (2008) [pdf]

I'm not so confident we're in the top 20%. Our galaxy is middle-aged. Our star is only 4.6 billion years old in a galaxy that is 13.51 billion years.

There were several stars that blew up before we got the sun which means several systems and planets right in our neighborhood and that's just 1 star in the entire milky way.

Even at 1% the speed of light, it would take 2 million years to travel across the milky way which, relative to the age of the galaxy, is nothing.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Planet Ceres is an 'ocean world' with sea water beneath surface, mission finds

Ceres is one of the more interesting candidates for life in our solar system. Ceres is in the habitable zone for our solar system (although just barely), it's surface temperature is -30 F (eq. to winter in Greenland), and it's detected that the water on the surface is 20% carbon by mass (though that can mean a lot of things).

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Skyscraper design combines cryptocurrency mining with vertical water park

It's like if Stanford brought a picture of an L5 self driving car to the DARPA grand challenge.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: One-third of New York’s small businesses may be gone forever

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Mask_League_of_San_Franci...

I really don't think people have changed in 100 years, they will always complain. We just need to do it anyways.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: U.S. backs down in fight with Harvard, MIT over student visas

On the other hand.. the overreach of the executive branch is a response to the political deadlock in the legislative branch.

If we end up in a situation where neither branch can respond quickly and effectively, that may be worse than what we have now.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Japan auto companies triple Mexican pay rather than move to US

The big issue seems to be that companies don’t know how long this version of NAFTA will last. If Biden becomes the next president and signals support for keeping the agreement the way it is, there’s a good shot they’ll move to the USA.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: If Earth Was 50% Larger, We Might Be Stuck Here

Anyone think this is an additional factor in the Fermi paradox? i.e planets that are too small can’t support a strong atmosphere and life. Planets that are too big make space travel too uneconomical.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: The US Coal Industry Is Declining Irreversibly

The US also gets a larger share of its energy from oil relative to coal. With the shale boom, oils become cheaper and more reliable in the US and burns more cleanly than coal.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: The case for declaring armed and fully autonomous drone swarms as WMD

Also, what number of drones. At why point does a swarm become a WMD?

To me, it’s more about intelligence than numbers. You could have a single rocket but if it’s smart enough to evade enemy defenses, that rocket could level a city.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Show HN: interviewing.io is out of beta and open to engineers of all levels

I used this website in my last round of interviewing. The interviewers were hit or miss but I definitely got a lot out of it.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Ask HN: Why do we pay taxes if the Fed can just print money?

People who are already wealthy could also store their wealth in something like gold and convert to the dollar only when needed which means their effective tax rate is 0.

The fed would also enter an inflationary cycle where they devalue their currency which means more money needs to be printed which further devalues the currency.

It just wouldn’t work in the real world.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Citing revenue declines, Airbnb cuts 25% of workforce

I agree that there is a general backlash against AirBnb in certain locales but this was a risk before COVID too. I don't see how COVID would compel cities to move FASTER to ban short-term rentals. During a time like this, aggressively cutting down a good business (for property owners) seems like a bad move in general.

The conversion of short-term -> long-term is a side effect of reduce demand. Once demand picks back up, supply will return.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Citing revenue declines, Airbnb cuts 25% of workforce

Those industries would also be hurting less which means a smaller discount.

Meanwhile, long-term prospects for AirBnb have not changed. Disease existed before COVID and will exist after COVID.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Citing revenue declines, Airbnb cuts 25% of workforce

Acquisition target IMO. While AirBnb bleeds, the FANGs continue to pile up cash.

Google, Facebook, and Apple all have enough cash to buy several AirBnbs rn.

gaukes | 5 years ago | on: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

Ya, and they were diversifying into tourism which is also bust.

I’m sure they’ll survive though. Their wealth is in the trillions.