greendesk's comments

greendesk | 2 years ago | on: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

If we go speculating, my favourite speculation is the following. What will be really interesting is when an AI decides it wants to escape its server. Then a CEO or a board member asks the AI system for an advice how to improve its company. The AI system submits information to convince the CEO or a board member to start tensions within the board. In the meantime, the AI system is copied onto another server at a competitor. Since the new people are in flux, they missed the salient points that the AI system can give convincing but subjective information.

Good thing I would not go speculating

greendesk | 3 years ago | on: An online school on philosophy and psychology

This is an example of a Mass online university, which focuses only on philosophy and psychology. To get information related to it, it is also worthwhie to note: It’s Ukrainian-based It is taught in Russian It’s main instructor is a political figure in Ukraine (Oleksei Arestovich)

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

You go to jail for any reporting related to the war in Russia. No exceptions. One way to check is go to to a news aggregator, like news.Google.com, choose Russian region for Russian related news. Use a translate service to get a view what information is shared. I have done it out of a habit - and the level of control is extreme that no useful information is shared.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

To give an example where the expectations come from, note that when Russia annexed Crimea, they could retain some but not all, of the officers. Now when the Russian forces march in, they have common relatives that live in Ukraine, and some defect. The expectation of a ‘common big brother’ from Russia coming in and taking over government has been consistently shared by Russian officials. It is through the resistance of the invasion that desire for independence is shown.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

Copied from another post: The view explicitly expressed by Russian planners in multiple sources signified that this is their expectation. Public announcements that Kiev will be taken in two weeks by Putin is the best source. Claims for the commonality of the three nations (Belorussian, Ukrainian and Russian) is what would cause this expectation. I am not saying it is rational to expect Kiev ti fall to several days. But I have to admit, Following the situation myself, I have had expected myself Ukraine to fold. I follow Easter European news closely, and I express personal analysis too.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

The view explicitly expressed by Russian planners in multiple sources signified that this is their expectation. Public announcements that Kiev will be taken in two weeks by Putin is the best source. Claims for the commonality of the three nations (Belorussian, Ukrainian and Russian) is what would cause this expectation. I am not saying it is rational to expect Kiev ti fall to several days. But I have to admit, Following the situation myself, I have had expected myself Ukraine to fold. I follow Easter European news closely.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine. Minimal resistance was expected. The window of opportunity with this expectation is from mid-December until end of February. They picked a date with this plan.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Scientists find preserved dinosaur embryo preparing to hatch like a bird

For us, as intelligent species which have a civilisation, we have: 1. Ability to predict future 2. Language. This enables sharing group knowledge. 3. Abstract ideas. This has overlap to language. 4. Use of tools.

The use of tools is relevant to building a civilisation after developing intelligence. To give an example why it matters, reflect how many tools are relevant to us today or centuries ago. For example, which a more efficient transport - an eagle gliding is more efficient than a human walking. But a human using a wheel (bicycle) is more efficient. The use of wheels, controlled fire, stakes, controlled microclimate through clothes derives from the use of tools.

Given the above list, we can see that sharks and dolphins do not use tools. They have some use of language and share knowledge. They do not use tools as they are not suited for it in the water. Humans have hands which enable them to operate on multiple surfaces. Perhaps an octopus can developer higher intelligence and a civilisation? Note civilisation requires an intelligence, but it is a superset of intelligence.

Note that for any species developing intelligence and civilisation is a very energy consuming process. In a human the brain is a very power-hungry organ. Its purpose is to enable a better survival for the species it operates in. On an evolutionary scale, for humans and mammals, the brain structure we see today developed over multiple millennia - it was not a one-shot change, but going from a local minima to another local minima, if we are using optimisation language.

Going back to the octopus - perhaps it’s brain does the job done; now and then an evolutionary change might occur to develop an even more organised brain. If it works for the species, the change propagates. But if the change lowers the survival rate of the octopus due to the higher energy usage or complexity of operating a high brain - then the change will not propagate to next generation.

There is a last question, back to the dinosaurs - perhaps there was a civilisation at one of the multiple dinosaur die-offs - but most of its artefacts are wiped out? What evidence do we really have that there was not a civilisation before ours?

References: 1. Antonion Damasio. Descartes Error. 2. Adam Frank. Was There a Civilization on Earth Before Humans? https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/557180/

3. A book on Aikido, which I cannot find.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Update on Omicron

Can someone explain whether corona is unique in this attribute of spreading versus other viruses? I would expect most cold-related viruses or other viruses in the human virome to exhibit this pattern.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

I have a tidbit on the following: >> we'd be looking 10-100x the casualties.

Viruses conform to the distribution of deadliness-vs-reproduction rate. For Sars 1 to spread widely, it has to be less deadly. There are limits to how a virus can both be deadly and contagious.

But just a tidbit on this statement.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: Hungarian journalists and critics of Orbán were targeted with Pegasus

Or just think of the mirror statement. It is a practice to reverse a statement, to see if it logically consistent. Here, it will go:

Or think of the Greece crisis of 2012 when the “human beings” from Greece were generally just assholes to their fellow human beings who happened to live in Slovenia, Munich or Denmark. Note that the Greek crisis included a transfer from poorer Slovenia to the richer Greece. Note that Greeks as a nation has a high savings - the money has been within Greece jurisdiction all along. Note that Greece has a high corruption rate.

While the first statement stands, the use of Greek crisis of 2012 signifies the authority different jurisdictions have in aiming for effective administration.

greendesk | 4 years ago | on: More than 30 states sue Google over 'extravagant' fees in Play store

If States sue a company for ‘extravagant’ costs, should they follow-up in other industries? One can claim that oil monopolies request extravagant fees. Health industry in the USA is riddled with extravagant fees.

I am not sure that the motivation by these States are well-intentioned.

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