nathan_young | 1 year ago | on: Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
If there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?
nathan_young's comments
nathan_young | 1 year ago | on: Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned:
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1
nathan_young | 1 year ago | on: Launch HN: Codebuff (YC F24) – CLI tool that writes code for you
They came out of Manifold. Though I acknowledge that doesn't really answer your question.
nathan_young | 3 years ago | on: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior
Ad what % is it crazy shit? I'm at about 7% of human disempowerment/exctinction, so it probably won't happen. Am I crazy?
nathan_young | 3 years ago | on: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior
According to a study of 700 ML researchers (not AI safety) the median chance that that the long-run effect of advanced AI on humanity will be “extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)" is 5%. And 48% of respondents gave an answer of 10% or more.
Even if this is 2 orders of magnitude too high it's worth a lot of our time. But these are probably mainly normy researchers not AI safety-ists. https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/#...
nathan_young | 6 years ago | on: A Movement to Stop the Covid-19 Pandemic
If you see any tech tools or data please add them here:
Coronavirustechhandbook.com
nathan_young | 6 years ago | on: UK Election Tech Handbook
A lot of these tools have very little money or support. Some of them have had 1m+ views last election.
If something interests you, you could offer to help the developers involved.
(disclosure: I am involved in the project)
nathan_young | 6 years ago | on: UK Election Tech Handbook
Please add it in.
nathan_young | 6 years ago | on: UK Election Tech Handbook
We (Newspeak House) would love to see one created. If you know people in that space, put up some tech and share it. Feel free to use our template if you credit us.
nathan_young | 6 years ago | on: UK Election Tech Handbook
Feel free to edit text to note if tools are biased/add tools with different biases.
(disclosure, I helped initiate the doc)
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